- Hubert Walas
Army is back.
On February 1, 2021, the military of Myanmar carried out a coup and seized power in the country's capital, Naypyidaw. Information of the event quickly spread around the world, mainly thanks to a fitness instructor who accidentally captured the event during a routine recording. How can one event destroy a decade’s worth of development and waste the best time in the history of modern Myanmar?
Discipline-Flourishing Democracy
It is impossible not to start with the figure of Aung San Suu Kyi when talking about the present era of Myanmar. She is the most important figure in the recent history of the country and winner of the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize. She is the daughter of the father of modern Myanmar - Aung San, who played a key role in the country's emergence from the yoke of the British Empire. Aung San Suu Kyi entered Myanmar's politics quite unexpectedly, swept up by the late 1980s revolution. Over the years she had numerous disputes with generals which cost her 15 years of her own freedom. She is a personality that evokes extreme emotions - from admiration, which resulted in the Nobel Peace Prize, to contempt resulting from her controversial response to ethnic cleansing within Myanmar’s borders, or to put it bluntly, the Rohingya genocide. However, it can be speculated that she did the latter as part of a compromise with the army that was directly responsible for the massacres. Regardless of how one judges Aung San Suu Kyi, she is undoubtedly the central figure of the whole event.
The years of the Myanmar politician's struggle were interrupted in 2008 by the generals themselves, who decided to change the rules of the game and start the experiment of "Discipline flourishing democracy." The junta concluded with a constitutional amendment, where the army secured power over three government ministries, was granted full autonomy, and received guaranteed minority in parliament with the right to veto the constitution. The generals thus secured a soft landing for themselves, yet this democratic compromise was nevertheless the beginning of a good time for Myanmar. The country gained international trust, opened up to investors, and the rise to high office of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2015 cemented this image
After the victory in 2015, the Nobel laureate, realizing the power that the Tatmadaw - that is the Myanmar Armed Forces - had assured the generals meant nothing would really change for them. However, after 5 years, there was probably little to no communication between the parties and this was one of the factors leading to the coup. And in the 2020 election, the privileged position of the generals was undermined.
Humiliated Generals
In November 2020, parliamentary elections were held in Myanmar despite the COVID 19 Pandemic. The National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, won an overwhelming victory, with 83% of the seats in parliament. The Myanmar Army is represented on the political scene by the Union of Solidarity and Development. The latter was humiliated in the last election, gaining only 7% of the vote. It seemed that the unwritten agreement between Aung San Suu Kyi and General Min Aung Hlaing, the Commander in Chief of the Myanmar Army, would be upheld and the military would come to terms with defeat while maintaining a strong position in the country. However, the first voices of dissatisfaction began to come from the Army in December.
The army suggested that the elections were undemocratic, although paradoxically they were probably the most democratic elections in Myanmar's history. The government of Aung San Suu Kyi did not react to the army's allegations of fabricating the elections while she probably played down the whole situation by rejecting the army's demands. The generals, feeling marginalized, decided to use the tools that were in their hands - military power. Perhaps the Army drew their inspiration from the United States, as many Americans, including prominent people, also questioned their own election results also suggesting that the results were falsified, but likewise did not provide any hard evidence for their claims.
Interestingly, at a press conference a week before the coup, a spokesperson for the Myanmar Army, received a direct question about the coup. He did not confirm it, but neither did he deny it. After all, it was a largely unpleasant surprise. The coup itself was very efficient and well organized. It took place a few hours before the convening of the new parliament after the November elections. Troops were positioned in Yangon and Naypyidaw. Telecommunications and the Internet were blocked and the Army seized government TV stations to broadcast the message that the country had been put in a state of emergency for a year due to "voter fraud." The Army’s narrative was to portray itself as the guardian of the democracy that had been - allegedly - violated.
A Lost Opportunity?
The influence of external actors on the coup seems unlikely. China, which has the greatest influence on Myanmar, had good relations with the government of Aung San Suu Kyi, and it was not in Beijing's interest to destabilize this arrangement. Which does not mean that, after a lengthy consideration, the whole situation may be in favor of the Chinese. It is likely that Myanmar will come out of the coup with sanctions, mistrust from external investors, and other economic problems. Japanese firms investing in Myanmar have already announced that they will review - and thus possibly reconsider - their investments. For example, Suzuki has halted production, and Kirin, a Japanese brewer,, has announced a withdrawal from Myanmar. Aid packages from global organizations such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, or the Asian Bank are likely to be reduced or completely stopped.
The Aung San Suu Kyi government pursued a multilateral policy and tried to wisely balance Chinese influence with the presence of Japanese and/or Western European entities. Now, this balance will be in doubt, and the possible options will narrow down considerably. The Myanmar Army, although it is not in particular favor of China, may have no choice but to turn to Beijing for help. And for the always opportunistic Chinese, in the end it doesn't matter who is in power, the only truly important thing is to achieve one’s goals in the region. Despite good relations with the overthrown government, the Chinese also have an established relationship with the Myanmar Army and will talk to anyone who is in charge. The personal ambitions of the generals may, in practice, make Myanmar become another Chinese colony. Russia also reacted quickly to the situation. Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu, made an official visit to Myanmar shortly after the coup so as to discuss technical and military cooperation with General Min Aung Hlaing. Information leaks indicate that the Americans, in turn, have a problem making any sort of contact with the generals in Myanmar, even if they need to. In brief, the Chinese have much better information on the immediate situation.
Due to its location and natural resources, Myanmar is an important player in the region. The country has over 50 million people and large oil and gas reserves. There are already oil and gas connections with China which has signed agreements with Myanmar for a number of investments. These include the Sino-Myanmar Economic Corridor, the construction of a railway to Mandalay, the special economic zone of Kyaukpyu, and finally the expansion of the largest city of Yangon which already has more than 5 million people. However, many of these investments are only on paper. The Myanmar policymakers wisely approached these projects by accepting but slowing their development as much as possible not wanting to become dependent on Beijing. Most emotions in recent years have been caused by the Myitsone Dam project, which would flood an area the size of Singapore with all energy generated to be exported to China. Despite Chinese anger, the project was canceled in 2011. If this investment was to be resumed now, as well as the other aforementioned investments, it would show Myanmar's caving into pressure from China.
What's next?
The military in Myanmar has already made ridiculously frivolous charges against Aung San Suu Kyi and elected President Win Myint, who is also from the National League for Democracy. It is likely that night raids on party headquarters and election commission offices across the country are aimed at seizing documents that could help the military build a stronger election fraud case. General Min Aung Hlaing, due to the introduction of the state of emergency, has de facto full executive, legislative, and judicial powers for a full year, and keeps his greatest opponent, Aung San Suu Kyi, under arrest. However, the question is what is the next step that the army can take.
An example for the generals is the Thai model, where the makers of the 2014 coup had to pacify the popular Pheu Thai party that had won every election since 2001. The junta prepared a new constitution, appointing the senate to counter the government and designing a new electoral system that favored them. In a word, they changed the conditions of the game to those that were advantageous to them. A similar course of events may be seen in Myanmar. Moreover, the Army hopes that by removing Aung San Suu Kyi from political life, the problem will resolve itself and that no one equally influential and loved by the Myanmar people will stand in their way. Unfortunately, there are many indications that due to Tatmadaw's attitudes towards Aung San Suu Kyi as well as her age of 75, it seems that her political career has come to an end.
The largest protests since the so-called The Saffron Revolution of 2007 are already taking place in the country. They are suppressed by water cannons, and warning shots have also been fired. However, a bloody pacification by the army cannot be ruled out, as there are no signs of cracks in the Army’s grip and no signs of a move to the side of the protesters. Unfortunately, the generals have never been able to tolerate protests in the long run. Every previous mass demonstration in Myanmar against them - in 1962, 1974, 1988, and 2007 - ended with bloodshed. The years of development in Myanmar made the society much better connected and aware, and the people are disappointed in the current change. This makes it more difficult to control protests than before. However, reversing recent events as a result of grassroots protests seems very difficult and unfortunately unlikely.
In the medium to long term, the most likely scenario is the end of the good times that Myanmar has experienced over the past decade. A drop in investors’ trust, an economic slowdown, and the resulting need to look for a protectorate in Beijing are a likely sequence of events. The only hope would be a collapse of the Army’s grip from its fracturing into competing cliques. All in all, the truth is that the ordinary people of Myanmar will pay the highest price for the February coup.
Mjanma: Armia ma państwo
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/2102747,1,Mjanma-armia-ma-panstwo.read
Myanmar’s Military Seizes Power
https://www.csis.org/analysis/myanmars-military-seizes-power
Lubina: Chore ambicje generałów mogą skazać Birmę na Chiny
https://biznesalert.pl/Mjanma-chiny-pucz-zamach-stanu-wojsko-energetyka/
How the US should respond to the coup in Myanmar
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-the-us-should-respond-to-the-coup-in-myanmar/
Myanmar forces fire rubber bullets, warning shots at protesters
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/9/myanmar-protesters-defiant-amid-ban-on-large-gatherings
Myanmar coup: What will the military do now?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56053007
