North Africa - Europe's New Power Plant?

When German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visited Algiers in November 2023, few people took notice. Yet this was her third visit to the country within a year. What made one of Europe's most important politicians visit this North African country so frequently? The answer is simple - gas. But that's not the only wealth in this region, which also abounds in oil, hydrogen, sun, and wind.

Meanwhile, Europe, which was fully dependent on Russian resources until recently, is now desperately seeking alternatives. It's finding them in North Africa.

However, this region's importance for Europe's future extends far beyond energy issues. North Africa is an area 20% larger than the entire European Union, inhabited by over 200 million people, and today, it's key to European security - not just energy security, but also migration security. This is where it will be determined whether Europe can secure its southern flank or will have to face new waves of destabilization.

To understand where this region is heading and what the consequences will be for Europe, we must first examine its complexity. Although from a European perspective, it might seem like a uniform area of the Arab world, in reality it's a mosaic of cultures, conflicts, and paradoxes.

HISTORY

Since we rarely look into this region of the world, the historical introduction to current events will be somewhat more extensive than usual. But it's worth doing, given the mosaic of connections and cultures that shapes this region.

The North African area has changed hands many times over the centuries. It was here that one of the first ancient civilizations emerged – Ancient Egypt. Then, at the beginning of our era, the North African coast became part of the Roman Empire. Its traces are most visible in Algeria, which has the second-largest number of Roman ruins after Italy. The territory of present-day Egypt was also the site of significant events described in the Bible, such as Joseph's rule, the story of Moses, and the Holy Family's refuge. Their traces remain visible today on Mount Sinai and in Cairo's Fustat district.

For systematic purposes, it's worth noting that Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya are called the Maghreb. Egypt, on the other hand, belongs to the Mashriq region, which encompasses the Middle East.

The Invasion

However, perhaps the most pivotal event in North African history, whose consequences are strongly felt to this day, was the Arab invasion in the 7th century CE. It led to a profound and lasting change in the regional population's culture through Arabization and the adoption of a new religion – Islam. For the next 1,400 years, and perhaps permanently, North Africa fell out of the Latin civilization sphere and strengthened its pre-existing cultural ties with Middle Eastern civilization.

The Arab conquest began in 639 with Egypt, and within the next 70 years encompassed the entire region up to the Atlantic coast. However, the process of Islamization proceeded unevenly. In the Maghreb, due to low population density and low literacy levels, conversions happened quickly. Meanwhile in Egypt, where society was more developed and concentrated in large cities, this process took much longer - even in the 15th century, Coptic Christianity remained the dominant religion there.

Disputes and Fragmentation

Despite Islam's dominance, the Muslim world remained mired in internal disputes and fragmented over time. Only the Umayyad, Abbasid, and Fatimid dynasties (7th-12th century) maintained unified control over North Africa. The next four hundred years were a period of struggles between various dynasties, until the 16th century when North African territories were conquered by the Ottoman Empire, which served as a kind of Muslim equivalent of 'NATO.'

Under Ottoman patronage, the port cities of Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria became pirate republics that plundered and kidnapped Europeans. For over 300 years, Mediterranean beaches remained empty - no one risked losing their life or freedom. The Barbary pirates' activities only ended after losing wars with the USA in the early 19th century.

The only North African state that didn't become part of the Ottoman Empire was Morocco, which under Berber dynasties created a state strong enough to defend itself against both Ottoman and Western European domination.

Colonization

However, the 19th century brought colonization of North Africa by Western powers, which even relatively strong Morocco couldn't resist. Egypt came under British Empire control, maintaining strong cultural autonomy and privileges for local elites. Tunisia, Algeria, and most of Morocco were colonized by France, which, despite fighting against local identity, invested significant resources in the economic and institutional development of these territories.

Spanish colonization in western Morocco was different, where power was exercised brutally and without investment in regional development. Libya was colonized for the shortest period (by Italy in the 1930s), and the state to this day struggles with institutional problems and internal conflicts.

These differences in colonizers' approaches are visible to this day - former French colonies are currently the region's most developed states, and their societies are culturally closest to Europe.

Decolonization

In the 1950s and 60s, the wind of change swept through the region. Local national liberation movements, formed mostly by World War II veterans who didn't receive recognition from colonizing states for their service at the front, challenged the colonizers. And these services were significant. Algeria made the greatest blood sacrifice on the altar of independence. Around 200,000 people died in the 1954-1962 war. The independence process was much smoother for other states in the region, especially in Libya where the British, after expelling the Italians, gradually transferred power to King Idris.

After the end of imposed European rule, a question arose: what next? After expelling the colonizers, North African states had to choose a political system that would enable them to catch up socio-economically with European states. They searched for an ambitious project. Impatient Arab-Berber souls didn't want to develop their states at a standard pace, based on traditional economic models. Everywhere except Morocco, the choice fell on socialism. Abdul-Gamal Nasser first pioneered this path in Egypt in the 1950s. Only Morocco resisted socialism – remaining a feudal monarchy slowly introducing capitalist reforms.

North Africa's New Project

However, the socialist utopia quickly crumbled. First in its birthplace - Egypt with Anwar Sadat's rise to power in 1970. In Algeria and Tunisia, it lasted until the late 1980s, and in Libya until Gaddafi's fall in 2011. This system maintained itself through significant oil and gas resources. It was economically inefficient but achieved some social successes. For example, Habib Bourguiba created the most educated society in Africa in Tunisia. Algeria and Libya also saw significant reductions in illiteracy.

What came after socialism? It was little only better, if not worse. The region fell under dictatorships implementing cosmetic democratization and certain free-market reforms, which nevertheless contributed to creating oligarchies. In Egypt, Presidents Sadat and Mubarak led to a specific combination of military, business, and foreign investor rule. In Tunisia, Ben Ali's dictatorship developed the economy based on tourism but simultaneously surveilled society and didn't prevent increasing social stratification. In Algeria, democratic elections in 1991 brought Islamists to power, resulting in a ten-year civil war, and after the military's victory, the creation of a state capitalism system modeled after Russia.

State-Building - Secularism or Fundamentalism

Therefore, from a state-building perspective, all North African states primarily have two fundamental problems to resolve: Build an Islamic religious state or secular one? Is democracy or strong-hand rule better for the region's states? Both are closely linked. Democracy usually leads to Islamist rule supported by about 40% of society. Strong-hand rule protects the rest of society from this scenario.

In North African countries, every society is divided regarding attitudes toward state secularism. People from the middle class upward advocate for a secular state, while the more numerous working class want it built according to political Islam principles. This division concerns fundamental civil liberties, including matters of dress, sexual relations, employment, alcohol consumption, and leisure time. These issues are more important than whether the country is democratic or authoritarian. They define individuals' daily functioning, not just how leadership is selected. The division between liberals and Islamists isn't binary. In different countries, there are people who live between these two worlds. They go to mosque, read books in Arabic, but watch French or American television. From a European perspective, it's important that Islamists have as little influence as possible, because their rule is a factor that prompts regional residents to migrate.

Rebellion and Migration

Unstable governments, a mosaic of cultures and views. Poverty and chaos. All this kept North Africa simmering. One spark was enough for dissatisfied societies to decide to rebel. In 2011-2012, this took the form of the Arab Spring. In Tunisia, democracy was introduced to replace the overthrown Ben Ali. In Egypt, Islamists briefly took power, only to be overthrown by Colonel Sisi after 2 years. Libya descended into civil war. Meanwhile, the authorities in Algeria and Morocco calmed tensions through minor political reforms and food subsidies.

And this slowly brings us to the current day. The Arab Spring events disrupted North African states' cooperation with European ones in preventing illegal migration. Conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Yemen generated millions of refugees. In 2015-2016, a record 1.8 million people illegally crossed the EU border!

Thousands of people from the Sahel region, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Horn of Africa traveled through Maghreb's deserts and cities, hoping to reach Europe. Chaos in Libya particularly facilitated human trafficking activities, resulting in increased numbers of boats heading toward Italy.

The main migration routes to Europe from Sub-Saharan Africa led through Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Morocco. Migrants crossed from Morocco and Algeria into Spain. Routes from Tunisia and Libya most often led to Europe through Italy. Meanwhile, migrants from Egypt headed through Turkey or Greece, and through the Balkans moved to the European Union's core. Germany was the most common destination. As a result, we had a 'patchwork of routes' that connected and branched in many ways.

The Arab Spring events weakened border structures and enabled the development of criminal networks. Migrants, often fleeing not only from conflicts but also from a lack of economic prospects, paid smugglers to reach coastal towns in Tunisia or Libya. Travel conditions were extremely dangerous: overloaded boats, often without captains capable of navigation, led to thousands of tragic drownings.

After 2017, when several North African countries (including Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt) resumed cooperation with the EU regarding migrant readmission and coast patrolling, the flow of people to Italy or Spain significantly decreased. However, this state of relative calm could end at any moment if, for example, North African governments choose to return to so-called 'migration blackmail.' For instance, Morocco, using this form of blackmail in 2020, led to the arrival of up to 8,000 people within a few days in the Spanish enclaves in North Africa – Ceuta and Melilla.

In summary, the Arab Spring worsened anti-immigration coordination with Europe, leading to a record crisis in 2015-2016. Meanwhile, the Maghreb states proved to be not only a source of migrants but also a key 'corridor' for people from deeper regions of Africa.

After 2017, the situation stabilized within the framework of renewed agreements, but North African countries can easily blackmail the Union by allowing through new waves of migrants. In this way, Europe becomes dependent on the mercy of politicians from Algiers, Tunis, or Rabat. And until the economic and political situation in the region stabilizes, the migration threat will hang over the EU's southern flank.

In the long term, however, it is primarily unemployment, poverty, lack of reforms, and prospects in North Africa that remain the main factors driving the influx to Europe.

Hydrocarbons

The hope for solving these problems is usually one and the same - hydrocarbons. And considering Europe's resource separation from Russia and the subsequent restructuring of the European energy market - North African countries have much to gain. And let's not forget that around the corner stands the AI revolution, which will require computing centers that must be powered by thousands of megawatts of energy.

The region is truly generously endowed in this respect. It's no surprise that the two most territorially extensive countries have the greatest potential. How does this potential fit into European energy diversification strategy?

The main gas arteries connecting Africa to Europe are currently:

• TransMed Pipeline (approx. 33 bcm)
• Maghreb-Europe Pipeline (approx. 12 bcm) [with the caveat that it's been out of use since November 2021 for political reasons]
• Medgaz Pipeline (approx. 10 bcm)
• Greenstream Pipeline (approx. 11 bcm)

The total capacity of these routes reaches 65 bcm per year. This is therefore greater than the only operational transmission connection of Russian gas to Europe, the Turkstream pipeline, which can pump a maximum of 30 bcm. Nevertheless, African pipelines are still not used at 100% capacity, offering room for export growth.

As the EU moves away from purchasing hydrocarbons from Russia, Algeria in particular is becoming one of Europe's key gas suppliers. In the first quarter of 2024, Algeria satisfied 20% of European gas imports in gaseous form, and 10% in LNG form, which is overall close to imports from Russia, which despite the invasion of Ukraine, continues, albeit on a much smaller scale. However, if the trend of cutting off from Russia continues, Algeria has a chance to capture an even larger share of Europe's gas market. The country is overall the world's 6th largest gas exporter, possessing the 10th largest reserves of this resource globally. The country also belongs to OPEC.

Libya potentially has even greater potential, especially considering oil. It has the world's 10th largest oil reserves (48-78 million barrels) and significant gas deposits (1.5 million m³). The country supplies over 7% of the Union's oil needs, being the sixth-largest supplier to the collective. Though a year earlier, Libya even held fourth place in this ranking.

Egypt also has significant hydrocarbon potential, but due to rapid population growth, it cannot cover its own needs despite annual production of 75 million tons of oil and 2.4 million m³ of gas. But newly discovered deposits in the eastern Mediterranean offer some hope. Tunisia, meanwhile, only covers its own needs. Only Morocco has almost no hydrocarbons, though paradoxically it is the fastest-growing economy.

Given the region's resource wealth, it's not surprising that representatives of Europe's largest market - Germany - are seeking ways in North Africa to replace their recent complete energy dependence on Russia. However, Germans in the region are looking not only for natural gas suppliers but also for something very similar to it - "green hydrogen."

On January 21st this year, Germany, Algeria, Italy, Austria, and Tunisia signed a Joint Declaration of Intent in Rome, which is intended to result in the "Southern Hydrogen Corridor."

'As part of the initiative, a direct pipeline connection for gaseous hydrogen will be created between North Africa, Italy, Austria, and Germany, consisting of five sub-projects and covering 3,500-4,000 km. Dr. Philip Nimmermann, State Secretary at the German Ministry of Climate, stated that the Southern Hydrogen Corridor will be one of the "largest and most significant" renewable energy projects of our time.'

It should be noted that hydrogen pipelines usually have higher material and technological requirements than natural gas pipelines. Therefore, the Southern Hydrogen Corridor will be able to be used for natural gas transmission if needed. This adds another potential capacity for natural gas transport from Africa to Europe. And we must remember that there are plans to reach even deeper into Africa's resources, extending beyond the Sahara Desert.

In mid-2022, Nigeria, Niger, and Algeria signed a MoU regarding the construction of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, which could pump Nigerian gas to Europe. Its potential competitor is the route along Africa's western coast - the Nigeria-Morocco pipeline. Although both these projects remain in the planning phase, they present a very intriguing perspective for Europe, which is urgently seeking new ways to obtain gas.

If these plans materialize, Algeria could be the primary winner. The country could become the main hub for African gas exports to Europe. Italy would be the main hub on the other side of the Mediterranean, later distributing it through a pipeline network to the rest of the continent.

Sun and Wind

Gas is the most important, but not the only area of European interest. The region has another attribute that its northern neighbors lack - the sun.

The Maghreb countries have ideal conditions for creating renewable energy installations based on solar energy. Morocco is considered the regional leader, deriving about 35% of its energy from renewables. The country aims to reach 50% by 2030. It's home to one of the world's largest solar complexes - Noor in Ouarzazate, with a total capacity of about 580 MW. More installations are planned, including a project with a target capacity of up to 800 MW.

Other countries lag behind due to previously mentioned problems and dependence on fossil fuels. However, development potential exists. Already in 2011, a PwC report estimated that energy drawn from solar and wind installations in North Africa could cover up to 15% of Europe's energy needs, with losses not exceeding 3%. Meanwhile, the Desertec Foundation claimed that up to 20 percent of Europe's energy demand could be met by connecting European cities with African deserts. It's assumed that concentrated solar power plants in the deserts can generate this renewable energy for 15-16 hours daily, which would bypass two fundamental problems hindering solar and wind energy use in Europe, namely intermittent production and short generator and cell operation times. Studies indicate that energy transmission from North Africa to Europe is technically feasible but requires appropriate policies and regulations.

Long-term considerations include building cables connecting North African power grids with Europe. This would enable direct export of cheap solar and wind energy. Various projects are at different stages of development, including the Xlinks project connecting Morocco with Great Britain, the GREGY initiative connecting Greece with Egypt, and the ELMED-TUNITA project connecting Tunisia with Italy via undersea cable.

Nevertheless, it's still hard to talk about a true revolution. However, the potential of this relationship is certainly large and multi-domain. As recently as 2023, Frans Timmermans, at the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) assembly in Abu Dhabi, said that 'The African continent will likely be Europe's most important partner in developing the renewable energy sector.'

Two Birds with One Stone?

Despite failures, perhaps it's in such ideas that we should look for solutions to North Africa's problems while considering Europe's interests. In theory, EU investments in the energy industry in North Africa - both conventional and based on renewable energy sources - could strengthen North African economies. These, in turn, economically tied to Europe and financially strengthened, would be less inclined to participate in 'migration blackmail,' and moreover, would have resources to better guard their own borders and not serve as a 'transmission belt.'

In this way, Europe could kill two birds with one stone - secure a stable energy supply source and patch a large migration 'gap' in the south.

Of course, although the plan sounds good in theory, its implementation amid the region's political instability (particularly in enormous Libya) is extremely difficult and exposed to great risk. However, the problem won't disappear and may even intensify, so Europeans, especially Spanish, Italian, French, or Greek, will be forced to act.

On the other hand, players hostile to the Union, like Russia, or at best neutral, like Turkey or Gulf states, remain 'strong' in the region. All can (intentionally or not) torpedo Europe's plans by further stoking chaos for their own interests.

In a word, North Africa is both a gateway to Europe and an energy battery for the Old Continent, whose potential is still not fully utilized. Despite many obstacles standing in the way of greater integration between Europe and North Africa, strong convergence of interests means that rapprochement will progress. Both sides have much to gain. Europe - a stable energy source. North Africa - economic benefits and political stability. Now all that's needed - and it's no small task - is effective action.

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