- Hubert Walas
Fading Lukashenka?
On August 9, 2020, another presidential election will take place in Belarus. However, current internal events in Belarus suggest that this time Lukashenka's regime is feeling the wind of change much more than in all previous, rigged elections. External diversion, last-minute candidate, thousands of people on the streets - Belarusian events now resemble the script of a good thriller film.
Little green 2.0
Belarussian officials reported that a group of Russian citizens came to one of Minsk hotels on 24 July. After a few days, they moved to one of the resorts in the Minsk region and have been there identified as outside saboteurs. Paradoxically, they attracted attention, as they had not committed any acts typical of such places - including alcohol abuse. At the National Security Council convened on July 29, and the briefing of Andrei Raukou, the Secretary of Defense of Belarus, which took place the following day, it was announced that the authorities knew about the arrival of more than 200 fighters from the so-called Wagner group, sent to destabilize the country during the upcoming August 9 presidential elections in Belarus. However, only 33 people were detained, which means that nearly 170 saboteurs remain in the country. The detainees include snipers, IT specialists, and experts in the field of explosives. It is speculated that two more groups are waiting at the Russian-Belarusian border. One near Pskov, the other near Newel. Moreover, Raukou did not rule out blocking the Internet for reasons of national security. The Wagner PMC - private military company, is a Russian proxy organization that serves to expand the Kremlin's geopolitical and geoeconomic influence in various regions of the world. Officially, it belongs to private hands, but it is under direct Kremlin commands.
Minsk vs Moscow?
Strikingly and unheard of in Minsk-Moscow relations, Lukashenka has blamed the Kremlin with hostile intentions towards Belarus. Such public statements can be read as a deliberate escalation of the conflict, complicating potential behind-the-scenes arrangements. This is an unprecedented deterioration in relations between Belarus and Russia. Lukashenka is trying to soften the tone of the accusation a bit, saying: “If they are guilty, we must get out of this situation with dignity. If innocent - well, we have no reason to discredit the country that is close to us. " However, further cooling of the relationship is inevitable, and a further escalation, including a complete breakdown, cannot be ruled out.
Moscow seems surprised by the way things have turned out and refuted the allegations. Russian officials, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Kremlin spokesman Peskov, do not deny that their citizens were in Belarus but claim that they did not break the law. Vladimir Putin convened the Security Council for the occasion, which was followed by a message that Russia expected the immediate release of the detainees. The Russian ambassador to Minsk, Dmitry Mezencew, argued that the arrested Russians were employed in a security company and were on a business trip to another country, while they were only passing through Minsk. Interestingly, Ukraine also referred to the case, asking Minsk for the extradition of 28 detainees as suspected of acting on the side of the separatist people's republics.
However, both versions presented by Minsk and Moscow raise some suspicions. Andrei Porotnikov, from Belarus Security Blog, even suggests that the Wagner PMC has been trapped by Minsk. There are several indications for this. It is hard to say that the Russian proxy group was hiding in Belarus - it was seen in military clothes throughout its stay. In their post-arrest decisions, the Belarusian authorities seem very prepared, if not relaxed. Although the category of the event directly corresponds to a threat to national security, the authorities have not decided to close the borders with Russia; Belarusian troops did not move eastward to respond to the presence of other subversive groups - this was done later. Moreover, Minsk has not applied for any international aid for diplomatic assistance. The author of Belarus Security Blog hypothesizes that Belarus was well aware of the presence of the Wagner Group, moreover, Minsk was constantly providing transport services to the Wagner PMC, e.g to Syria. In such a scenario, if both sides are aware of it, but cannot announce it publicly, it may be considered as Minsk's aggressive act towards Moscow and a direct message from the Belarusian authorities that they are ready to escalate political relations.
The potential goal of Lukashenka's courageous political game may be to undermine the Kremlin's credibility. For many years Moscow has been trying to gain international recognition of the status of the Donbas People's Republics. The scandal with the Wagner proxy, the statement that most of them were active in a diversion in eastern Ukraine, and accusing them of the coup attempt in Belarus greatly depreciates the credibility of the Russian narrative. Moreover, it could be a move ahead of the potential actions of Moscow, which may at some point question the territorial integrity of Belarus, as was the case in Ukraine. Thus, Lukashenka draws attention to the international opinion that Russia is introducing a new version of green men, this time to Belarus.
Exit strategies
Breaking ties with a country on which your economy fully depends is not wise, so let's think about alternative scenarios for Belarus. Although the Chinese influence by the Nemen river continues to grow - it is estimated that the Chinese have already invested up to $ 20 billion in Belarus still due to the geographical gap it is hard to believe that the Belarusian authorities are fully betting on Beijing. On the other hand relations with the West, especially with the USA and Poland, have been recently warming up again. Washington has already announced the re-appointment of its ambassador in Minsk, and Lukashenka is announcing the end of the cooling-off period. After years of following the EU agenda of limiting relations with Belarus due to its undemocratic system, Poland is also beginning to feel the need to influence the eastern direction. No wonder, because Belarus is, next to Ukraine, a key geostrategic country for Poland, as I mentioned in the episode on Polish Geopolitics. So far, Warsaw's activities are mainly soft power, including sending a convoy with medical materials to Belarus during the early stage of the coronavirus pandemic. However, the next step could be the announcement of a new diplomatic body - the Lublin Triangle, which may potentially play a significant role in the region in the future. It is a recently established cooperation platform between Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine. The format differs from other Three Seas initiatives or platforms inside the EU and NATO by that it also covers Ukraine. Warsaw, Kyiv, and Vilnius seem to be aware of the importance of Minsk, as the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also received an invitation to the first meeting of the Lublin Triangle. For now, in the role of the guest of honor, but perhaps along with the warming relations with the West and further deterioration of relations with Moscow, Minsk could add another tip to the new platform. However, greater integration with the widely understood West is a distant prospect at the moment. It will take a lot of time to restore lost years.
The Contender
We cannot forget about the background of all these events. Everything happens just a moment before the elections scheduled for August 9. About their undemocratic nature, as well as for more information on the recent history of Lukashenka's rule, I invite you to the previous report on Belarus. It is no different this time. The Belarusian government apparatus has undertaken a series of measures aimed at preventing domestic and foreign observers from watching the elections. Foreign journalists are denied accreditation. The two main opposition candidates, Wiktar Babaryka and Sergey Cichanouski, were arrested under vague charges. Babaryka was accused of financial embezzlement in Biełgazprombank, which he had been managing for 20 years. The reason for Cichanouski's arrest is even more bizarre - he was accused of disturbing the public order during a rally at which he was collecting signatures for the candidacy. Therefore it may seem that everything is going a similar path during the current elections. However, there are many signs that it may now be different. Belarusian society seems to be tired of Alexander Lukashenka's 26-year rule. Although official propaganda polls forecast Lukashenka's support of 60-70%, actually it’s hitting bottom. When it was possible to conduct election polls on the Belarusian Internet before censorship blocked them, support for Lukashenka did not exceed 5% - on this basis, the “Shasha 3%” movement emerged, which, according to many, reflects the real level of support. After Cichanouski was arrested, his wife Svetlana decided to run for the presidency. Surprisingly, the CEC allowed her to run for the election, and the staffs of other suppressed opposition candidates gave her support. Cichanouska immediately gathered crowds on the streets, and her rallies gather thousands of people. 10,000 in Grodno, 18,000 in Brest, and 63,000 in Minsk alone. These are unprecedented social movements for Belarus. In the Voice platform, which is targeted at independent counting of votes in the upcoming elections 750,000 people have already registered on. Still, the opposition cannot be considered unequivocally pro-Western or anti-Russian. Everyone is aware of the very deep degree of dependence on Moscow and its geographical proximity, which is why the common agenda is to create a neutral state, cooperating with both the East and the West. One of the successes of the campaign is that people are not forced to choose between Moscow, Warsaw, or Brussels. However, it should also be noted that the unofficial anthem of Cichanouska's rallies is Jacek Kaczmarski's "Walls", based on the Catalan melody of L'Estaca translated into Belarusian and Russian. The same song accompanied Poles in the overthrow of communism in the 1980s. Such serious social movements in favor of change create the last reason that the case of the Wagner group is a Lukashenka conspiracy. Independent Belarusian experts agree that this will allow the government to tighten the pre-election suppression even more. In addition, the propaganda apparatus in all the confusion is trying to create Alexander as the savior of the nation, who discovered and stopped the external threat to Minsk. Yet the Belarussian society does not seem to believe in the Wagner PMC story.
Sasha’s twilight?
To this complicated puzzle, we need to add President Lukashenka's poor health condition. The media speculates about complications from diabetes and the COVID-19 virus. It was noted that Lukashenka came to the Security Council meeting with a bandaged arm. Only a few of the most trusted people have access to him now.
Lukashenka is now in a political lap. Every step he undertakes now: election cancellation, Cichanouska's withdrawal, repressions, and provocations will harm his image and position. He feels that he has even lost his pro-Russian electorate, which was a political airbag for him. There are many indications that he is now playing his own game, the outcome of which is unknown. Mixed signals are also coming from the Kremlin, which may even have decided to end support for Lukashenka. Cichanouska's victory in the elections would, however, be a huge surprise, as the candidate herself admits that she expects the elections to be rigged again. At the same time, she says that the real fight will start after the elections and the real choice will be decided on the streets of Belarus. But one thing is certain - Lukashenka will not cede without a fight.
