- Hubert Walas
Russia Ukraine war.
When in February 2014 Russian incognito tanks, without state markings, occupied Crimea, the entire world watched the events on the picturesque Black Sea peninsula with significant concern. Despite the Kremlin's constant narrative about the peaceful fulfillment of the Crimean inhabitants’ will, the international community had no doubts about the hostile intentions of the Russian Federation. However, over 7 years have passed since then, and the World, and more strikingly Europe, seems to disregard the fact that there is still a war going on its periphery. Moreover, there are signs that this conflict may continue to worsen.
Forgotten Ukraine
Let’s shortly recall the events. After the rapid action of the so-called little green men in Crimea and the annexation of the, geostrategically critical, Crimean peninsula by the Russian Federation, the escalation of separatist movements supported by the Kremlin occurred in the Donbas. As a result, a pro-Russian rebellion broke out, which led to the establishment of the self-proclaimed People's Republics in Donetsk and Lugansk. The army of Ukraine responded militarily. However, despite the establishment of several diplomatic platforms, including the Minsk talks and the Normandy Format, the war in eastern Ukraine continues. While the world seems to have forgotten about it.
In February 2020, the annual Munich Security Conference took place. It is one of the largest events of its kind in the world, bringing together heads of state, government, senior state officials and experts on international affairs. In the official Munich Security Report from this event, which covers over 70 pages, Ukraine is mentioned only 7 times. In the list of 10 conflicts that the world community should pay attention to, the war in eastern Ukraine was placed last, giving way to problems in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, or Kashmir. Volodymir Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, euphemistically referred to the report at the press conference, saying that such a presentation of reality unpleasantly surprised him. As he reminded - in the east of Ukraine there is a constant struggle for values common to all Europeans and Westerners. The picture was completed by the fact that Żełeński's speech took place in the side room, at the same time as the speech of the Chinese foreign minister - which proves that the organizers treated it as an event of lower importance.
Even more controversial was the report called "Twelve Steps Toward Greater Security in Ukraine and the Euro-Atlantic Region" published on the official website of the Munich Security Conference. It was prepared by several European think tanks in cooperation with the Russian Center for International Affairs and has been signed by, among others, retired American general Philip M. Breedlove. The general assumption of the authors was that the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine is essentially its internal problem. And the solution to the problem, apart from the participation of the West and Russia, requires starting a discussion on the identity of this country. In the entire material, there is not the slightest mention of the Russian aggression in Crimea and Donbas. The report disappeared from the official website of the Munich conference shortly after the publication, and the organizers distanced themselves from its assumptions. However, the milk has spilled.
A team of American experts from the Atlantic Council, quickly counteracted the report. Although they diplomatically agreed on some points, still strongly opposed to a couple of them, which they directly called duplicating the Kremlin's narrative and corresponding with Moscow's wishes. "Without Kremlin leadership, financing, weapons including heavy arms, ammunition, and—in some cases—regular units of the Russian Army, there would be no “conflict in and around Ukraine" the authors concluded. Less delicate in words was Iwanna Klympusz-Cyncadze, former Ukrainian deputy prime minister responsible for European integration, who called the Munich conference "Putin's friends meeting".
The Failed format
Also in the Atlantic Council, which probably isn’t accidental, the Ukrainian deputy prime minister Alexei Reznikov, who is responsible for Donbas’ negotiations, writes about the deadlock over the conflict in Ukraine. He argues that the so-called The Normandy format, i.e. the talks on the Kyiv-Berlin-Paris-Moscow axis, has reached a dead end. Reznikov explains that Kyiv treats negotiations to strengthen its sovereignty, while Moscow has exactly the opposite goal - undermining its neighbor's sovereignty, interfering with its internal interests, and permanently opposing Ukraine's international policy. Therefore, the Ukrainian deputy prime minister asks what the Normandy Format is supposed to serve. Kyiv realizes that it is a buffer that protects Europe from the Russian revisionism. However, as negotiations fail, the conflict may escalate further and eventually move 1,300 kilometers west and reach the eastern border of the European Union. Specifically Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. This can be read as a clear invitation, mainly for Warsaw and Bucharest for greater involvement in the matter and perhaps to remodel the Normandy Format.
The tweet sent by President Zelenski, who congratulated the re-election of Polish President Andrzej Duda, where he wrote : "Together we are stronger" is also a reference to the common threat that both countries share.
War, act two?
The fact that Ukraine is looking for allies is not surprising. Especially in the context of Putin's recent signing of the decree on the conscription of reserve troops. According to the concerned Ukrainian observers, the mobilization may be caused by the planned attack on Ukraine scheduled for autumn, which would be coordinated with the Kavkaz 2020 exercises. All the previous, similar decrees predetermined the time frame, which was usually up to 2 months. The current decree is indefinite.
As the Ukrainian Lieutenant-General Leonid Golopatyuk said, three large military groups, are stationed at the border with Ukraine, capable of the offensive at any time, without the need to transfer troops or mobilize. According to Golopatyuk, Russia has gathered "about 87,000 military personnel, up to 1,100 tank units, 2,600 armored fighting vehicles, 1,100 artillery systems, 360 multiple-launch missile systems, 18 tactical operational missile systems." Additionally, we should count the forces stationed in Crimea, which, like Kaliningrad, make up one large military base.
The Russian attack would be aimed at taking control of Kherson and the Northern Crimea canal. The supposed reason would be the catastrophic hydrological situation in Crimea. Before the war, Ukraine supplied the peninsula with the water from the Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian authorities, not surprisingly, decided that the water will not be delivered to the peninsula until it’s returned under Kyiv’s control.
Even less optimistic visions were presented by the Ukrainian Counter admiral Ołeksji Nejiżpapa, who explicitly stated that the Ukrainian Navy is preparing for a military confrontation with Russia and is strengthening its positions. "We are preparing for a full-scale war confrontation, understanding that if it occurs, unfortunately, there will be many losses - both among our military and civilians. Many do not understand it, but the country is in the seventh year of the war." However, he stressed that the Ukrainian army is preparing not only for the war in the Donbas’ trenches but also for offensive actions, including working in urban conditions, conducting combat operations not only in defense, and for maneuvering operations. Besides, he also mentioned that the most likely assumption of the attack would be the resumption of water supplies in Crimea. The attack could be carried out under the cover of the announced Kaukaz 2020 exercises. American General Ben Hodges, who until recently was the commander-in-chief of American troops in Europe recently raised similar concerns. The situation is not improved by the revealed revelations of John Bolton, who wrote that Donald Trump does not like Ukraine and the fact of recent, frequent telephone contacts between the US and Russian presidents.
Hope(less)?
The disastrous position of Kyiv is complemented by the dreadful epidemiological and economic situation, which is affected by the poor harvest of grain, which is one of Kyiv’s major export products. The western part of the country is plagued by floods. The conditions are not stabilized by the internal political situation as well - former President Petro Poroshenko said for the BBC that Żeleński is an inexperienced man, and the only thing he can do is a television show - referring to the president's media past. However, a more serious accusation is the presence of pro-Russian people in Żeleński's immediate entourage, whom Poroshenko directly calls the Kremlin's fifth column.
What information is coming from the Kremlin? Aleksandr Borodaj, once short-lived prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, confirmed that Donetsk residents with Russian passports had taken part in the recent referendum as citizens of the Russian Federation and expressed the hope that the territory would soon become part of Russia "de jure". Borodaj was diplomatically followed by the deputy head of the Russian Federation's Foreign Affairs Committee, Władimir Dżabarow, who said that although Russia's goal is not to gain territorial gains, Kyiv is doing everything possible to push Donbas out of Ukraine. He added that the question of belonging is a sovereign decision of the people living in this region. The Kremlin used similar rhetoric during the annexation of Crimea.
The situation in Ukraine is extremely difficult at present. The country must prepare for the worst-case scenario, i.e. the second offensive by Russian troops. The shaky world order is diverting attention from the war that has been waged in Europe for seven years. It favors the Kremlin's plans to pursue a new concert of powers and expand its influence further West. Whereas Ukraine, moving westward, is an unacceptable scenario for Moscow.
