- Hubert Walas
War: the Biggest Driver of Hunger.
There are 6 major breadbasket regions in the world, which together account for nearly 70% of the global food supply. These are Brazil, especially its southern and northern parts; the United States with its Valley of San Joaquin in California; Southeast Asian tigers such as Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines; the Canadian prairies in the provinces of Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan; and China with its fertile areas along the Yangtze and Huang He rivers.
The sixth and final breadbasket is the Black Earth or Chernozem Belt region, which extends into Ukraine and Russia. This area accounts for over 30% of global wheat exports and 65% of sunflower exports. According to scenarios conducted by the consulting firm, McKinsey, up to 43 million tons of export production could disappear from the market by 2023 due to the war that is stifling Ukraine and the accompanying Russian naval blockade imposed on Ukraine's Black Sea ports. This figure is equivalent to the caloric intake of 60 to 150 million people. Meanwhile, the World Food Programme is already estimating that some 49 million people are suffering from emergency levels of hunger and 811 million go to bed hungry every night. Russia's weaponization of food presents a deadly risk not only to Ukraine, but to millions of the world's poorest people.
The stability of the global food market generally depends on factors linked primarily to the weather, the most severe of which are long periods of drought. However today, the pillars of the global food supply chain have been shaken by two events that no one had considered before 2020: a global pandemic and a major war in Europe. According to Daniel Aminetzah of McKinsey, this destabilization, primarily in the wheat and fertilizer markets, is creating a whiplash effect that will have a major impact not only on the global economy, but also on food production hubs in other parts of the world.
The Mighty Fertilizer
The combination of the 3 components of nitrogen, potassium, and phosphorus created one of the most underrated products that contributed to the growth of all mankind: the mineral fertilizer NPK, which takes its name from the chemical symbols of its constituent elements and has played an extremely important role in the Green Revolution of the 1960s. The agricultural transformation aided by NPK fertilizers resulted in a doubling of crop yields in subsequent years. According to acclaimed Canadian researcher Vaclav Smil, 40% of humanity, more than 3 billion people, were born and live only because of this fertilizer. The NPK fertilizer revolution enabled the largest increase in human population in the entire history of the Earth.
Therefore, today it is an indispensable ingredient for every farmer. On average, fertilizer accounts for 30% of crop costs and its price has increased by some 78% since 2021. Meanwhile, Russia is responsible for 20% of world fertilizer production, and together with Belarus, for 40% of potassium exports. The price of potassium has doubled in the last few months alone. The price of nitrogen is directly linked to the energy market, which is also in crisis. The difficult fertilizer situation is also having a strong impact on other food hubs, such as Brazil, which imports around 85% of its fertilizers, 25% of which come from Russia alone.
The International Rice Research Institute predicts that due to price and fertilizer shortages, next season's rice harvest could fall by 10 percent, causing a loss of 36 million tons of rice, equivalent to feeding 500 million people.
The Spiral of Unrest
The other critical export product of the region that is currently at war is wheat, 80% of which is used for flour and this key ingredient, as we know, is the basis for bread and accounts for 60% of the cost of all its ingredients. When the price of wheat rises by 100%, it becomes inevitable that the price of flour products will rise as well. And this can lead to social unrest, the consequences of which are difficult to predict. A decade ago, the Arab Spring was such an event, and one of the main reasons for its outbreak was supposed to be the high price of wheat.
Some countries such as Egypt rely heavily on grain imports from the Black Earth Belt to meet the caloric needs of their citizens. Cairo's dependence on Russia and Ukraine in this area reaches 60%. In addition, Egypt processes and exports some of these imports to East African countries, which are also inevitably exposed to major supply disruptions. Africa, despite having 60% of the total arable land on the planet, is overall dependent on food imports.
This is due to low crop productivity, resulting from poor industrialization of agricultural production, and low fertilizer use. As a result, more than half of the countries in Africa are dependent on supplies from Russia and Ukraine. As many as 14 African countries import more than half of their wheat from these two warring states. In the 1960s, a million people died of starvation in Nigeria as a result of the Biafran war; just over a decade later, famine in Ethiopia claimed another million lives. Today, the war in Ukraine threatens another episode of mass starvation and widespread poverty in Africa.
Bank of England governor speaks of "apocalyptic food price rises." First, the crisis is hitting the most vulnerable and poorest countries. The first dramatic scenes caused by shortages of food, medicine and fuel, high prices, power cuts were seen in Sri Lanka. Similar one may unfortunately become more common in other parts of the world.
The share of the cost of food in the household budget varies relatively to the wealth of a nation. For example, the British spend only 10% of their income on food. In Kenya or Pakistan, it is over 40%.
Therefore, Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacerbates the ongoing food and security crisis in the world's most vulnerable regions, such as East Africa. Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan are projected to suffer the most, according to the UN World Food Programme. "We are certainly now standing on the brink of disaster. Time is running out," said Rein Paulsen, Director of Emergencies and Resilience at the UN.
As if that wasn't enough, many countries are now reporting record heat. In India, Delhi has reported temperatures of over 50 degrees Celsius. This has translated into a much worse harvest and pushed the central government to block wheat exports abroad. Similarly protectionist moves may become more frequent, further exacerbating the international hunger crisis and most acutely in countries that rely on food imports, such as those in the Horn of Africa. One of these being Somalia which is also consumed by heat that has led to the worst droughts in 40 years. A whopping three consecutive rainy seasons have been dry. And even when it did rain, it came in the form of downpours that caused floods and contributed to locust infestations. In Ethiopia and Kenya, 3 million farm animals have died since mid-2021.
Overall, in Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya, the number of people affected by extreme hunger has more than doubled since last year from about 10 million to more than 23 million. Afghanistan, since the Taliban took power, has also been plunged into famine. Up to 95% of Afghans are affected. According to UN data, the number of people at risk of severe food insecurity has doubled in the past two years, from 135 million before the pandemic broke out, up to 276 million today. "These appalling numbers are inextricably linked to the conflict, both as cause and effect," said UN Secretary-General António Guterres, after visiting countries in the African Sahel equally affected by the food crisis.
The Heroic Farmers
In turn, Theo de Jager, president of the World Farmers' Organization, says: "I’m not sure it’s possible any more to avoid a food crisis. The question is how wide and deep it will be. Most importantly, farmers need peace. And peace needs farmers."
That’s why Ukrainian farmers often show heroism in carrying out their work that’s equal to the regular Ukrainian army. Work in the field, especially in war zones, is associated with risks. Even the loss of life, due to triggering a mine. A few tractor drivers have already died in this way. There have also been air attacks on farmers, which is particularly absurd and this is yet another Russian attempt of terrorizing the civilian population.
Nevertheless, the agricultural situation of Ukraine is not, despite appearances, wholly tragic and can be rescued relatively quickly. However, for this to happen, one side - the Russians - needs goodwill. We will therefore take a look at the situation of the Ukrainian agricultural sector in a little more detail, based on a study by Sławomir Matuszak from the Centre for Eastern Studies.
Have no illusions, the war is taking its toll on Ukrainian grain production. Estimates say that the cultivated areas will be 30% smaller than in 2021. It is also unclear how the harvest in the occupied territories will turn out. However, on the positive side, last year's crop was a record-breaking one for Ukraine, the grain harvest in 2021 amounted to 86 million tons and was more than 32% higher than in 2020.
As a result Ukrainian grain stocks are bursting at the seams. The Ministry of Agriculture reports that wheat stocks amount to 6 million tonnes and corn stocks to 15 million tonnes. These figures exceed Ukraine's annual demand, so in theory Ukraine is not threatened by famine.
But there is a real risk that there will be famine in other parts of the world as Ukrainian agricultural products intended for export go to waste. And unfortunately, this is a real likely scenario. Its cause is the Russian naval blockade of Ukrainian ports. The problem of a significant decrease in the harvest relative to 2021 when, as a reminder, more than 85 million tons were harvested, is only one side of the coin. Even if Ukrainian agricultural production records a decrease, it will still be very large. Therefore the other side of the coin is the problem of storage and export. Ukrainian grain warehouses are already full and we are at the beginning of the harvest season. Meanwhile, before the war, Ukraine's grain exports by sea exceeded 90%. It is impossible to transfer this volume to road and rail, which accounted for 6% and 3% of exports respectively. It is true that over 1.5 million tonnes of cereals were exported by road in March, which was still above expectations. Still, it is easy to calculate that with a harvest exceeding 50-60 million tons and full stores of last year's grain, it would take years to export this amount by truck and rail. In other words, the currently stored grain will be lost.
In the meantime, the search for alternative routes for the export of agricultural produce from Ukraine is being strenuously pursued. The most promising route is considered to be via Poland, as well as Lithuania and Latvia to the Baltic ports and Romania. However, these alternative routes present a number of problems, with a different rail gauge between Ukraine and the EU countries at the forefront.
Criminal Blockade
Josef Schmidhuber, of the UN, called the situation "grotesque", saying that in Ukraine there are 25 million tons of grain ready for export, which could reach countries with serious hunger problems like Syria, Yemen, South Sudan or Afghanistan, but Russia blocks their shipment. This is a blatant demonstration of using food to achieve political goals.
This is all the more grotesque as the Russian-occupied ports of Kherson, Berdiansk, or Mariupol were not the primary points of loading of Ukrainian grain before the war. This role was played primarily by the ports of Chernomorsk, Nikolaev, Yuzhno and Odessa, which in 2021 handled more than 40 million tons of grain. All of them are still under Ukrainian control and were not severely affected by the war. Thus, unblocking Ukrainian grain exports is a matter of the moment and a purely a political decision.
And the Kremlin makes it clear that it is able to make such a decision, but it put a price on it: the removal of Western economic sanctions. Translating the whole situation into simpler language, Moscow says: we will allow millions of people in Africa and Asia to not starve if you remove the sanctions we received for the criminal invasion of another country. This is not much different from a terrorist who sets expectations while putting a gun to the victim's head. The West's response is clear: we do not discuss with terrorists.
"We have never sanctioned food, we have never sanctioned agricultural goods from Russia. Unlike Russia, we have no interest in weaponizing food against the needy. Our non-food sanctions will remain in place until Putin stops his brutal war against Ukraine's sovereignty." On the 25th of May, Ned Price, a spokesman for the U.S. State Department, said.
Ursula von der Leyen, chairman of the EU commission, echoes him on behalf of the European Union. "Global cooperation" is the "antidote to Russia's blackmail."
In turn, satellite images indicate that the Russian Federation is not only blocking the shipment of Ukrainian grain, but also stealing it and trying to sell it on the international market. Interestingly, the Russians tried to sell this grain to Egypt, but a message from Kyiv's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, suggested that Cairo rejected this proposal from Moscow.
Quite unexpectedly, Lithuania called for an international sea coalition to escort Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea basin. The problem is obvious, Vilnius does not have a navy, but the British do and a very capable one, and a few moments later: London backed the Lithuanian proposal. A maritime coalition of the willing could in theory also consist of the navies of countries that import Ukrainian grain, such as Egypt. So far, the Lithuanian idea has not materialized, but when hunger begins to look into the eyes of the poorest people in the world, the pressure on countries capable of carrying out such an escort, such as the USA, Great Britain or France will grow. Even despite fears of escalation and accidental involvement in a conflict with Russia.
How could the situation develop? In a positive scenario, as reported by McKinsey, in which the Ukrainian-Russian war would end fairly quickly (e.g. by the end of this year), we would most likely lose part of the harvest, but it would be possible to return to normality in the next year. Moreover and for protectionist reasons, countries would rather not withhold food exports to other countries for fear of their own needs. The situation will worsen if the war lasts longer. Several growing seasons may be lost, countries will start to block food exports due to domestic pressures, food prices will soar, hitting the most vulnerable countries first and causing waves of hunger, death, and migration. Especially in Africa.
If the Russian blockade continues, then one day, when the war in Ukraine comes to a close, historians and analysts will start working on assessing the consequences of the criminal invasion. As such, it may turn out that the Russian strategy of deliberately destroying global food supply chains and thus weaponizing food could be considered a greater crime than the invasion itself. Russia could contribute to the death, not of thousands, but millions of people around the world. Unfortunately, this would not be the first time the Kremlin has starved millions to death.
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