- Hubert Walas
400 millions.
In 1911, Nigeria had 16 million inhabitants, today after 110 years there are 211 million Nigerians and the forecasts say that this is just the beginning. Although people are the greatest capital of any country, such a drastic demographic boom opens a Pandora's box, which will be extremely difficult to close.
Uncontrolled Demographics
Recently, we have become used to news about the demographic problems of many nations. European countries, Japan, Russia, China, and even the United States are below the replacement threshold, or the situation where the fertility rate is below 2.1 children per woman. But, the number of people in the world is constantly increasing - forecasts say that by 2050 there will be 2.2 billion more of us. Two continents are responsible for this number - Asia, where the population will increase by 700 million, but most of all Africa, where the population is expected to grow by 1.3 billion. Thus, the population of the African continent will double. The largest share of this statistic is due to Nigeria, which is on the path to becoming the 3rd most populous country in the world.
The population of this West African country is growing at a stratospheric pace. In 1911, Nigeria's population was a modest 16 million. At the time Nigeria gained independence from the British in 1960, its population was nearly 3 times bigger at 45 million. By comparison, Great Britain at the time had 52 million. However, today there are 68 million British and an impressive 211 million Nigerians. In just 60 years, the country's population has grown by 116 million. And in one century by nearly 200 million.
But, this is not the end. Forecasts indicate that Nigeria will have well over 400 million people by 2050 unless steps are taken to curb the surge. Thus, it would overtake the United States and become the 3rd most populous country in the world. Moreover, with the current trend, in 2100 there will be more Nigerians in the world than Chinese. History shows that 100 year forecasts typically are more science fiction than reality, but this statistic still sheds light on the scale of the Nigerian population problem.
Population growth in of itself is not a problem. After all, people are the greatest capital of any country. Population growth becomes a pressing issue when the existing structures of the state are not able to provide adequate living conditions for an ever-growing population in a sustainable manner. The eighteenth-century economist Thomas Malthus, who was afraid that too much of the Earth's population would only bring people more poverty and hunger, warned against this. Nevertheless, Malthus' prediction did not come true. This is because global economic growth, especially since the industrial revolution, has skyrocketed and far outstripped population growth. And when the country reached a developed status, the society itself aimed at having fewer children.
The opposite is currently happening in Nigeria. The average GDP growth of Nigeria in recent years has been around 2% of GDP, while the increase in population has been over 3%. As a result, there are 500,000 new Nigerians per month, or as much as the population of Oslo, Norway. This also means that the population of Nigeria, with the current trend, doubles approximately every 25 years.
Statistically, the average Nigerian woman gives birth to more than five children. But this indicator varies depending on local ethnic or religious background. In Lagos State, in the southwest, where the vast majority are Christians, the birth rate is relatively low at 3.4 births, while in the state of Katsina, in the Muslim-dominated north of the country, the birth rate is as high as 7.3 births per woman. Factors such as polygamy, the inferior status of women, early marriages, and the lack of adequate education contributes greatly to this situation.
Abuja has been aware of the demographic problem for a long time. Already in 1988, the first directives were introduced to reduce the fertility rate, the number of early marriages, and thus stop the growth of the population. However, the program failed. In 2005, another program was launched. But, its effectiveness presents the fact that in the 10 years between 2005 and 2015, the Nigerian population increased by another 50 million, or nearly as much as the entire population of South Korea.
This clearly shows the ineffectiveness of the attempted solutions. The program summary report identified the following as the main causes: a lack of executive efficiency, insufficient resources, an environment characterized by pervasive cultural and religious practices, gender gradation of newborn children, and poverty. Gender norms such as male child preference and belief systems that recognize the number of children in a family as the main status symbol still have a profound effect on Nigeria. The paternity of a large number of children is seen as a dimension of power and a higher social status. Low literacy and education levels mean that these beliefs and norms remain commonplace.
It suffices to say that according to the World Bank's 2019 statistics, 50% of working Nigerians have only a basic education, 30% have never attended school, and - shockingly - only half of Nigerians can read and write. In fact, only 20% of the Nigerian population is sufficiently educated. In a word, Nigeria lacks an educated, productive population. In addition, families in extremely difficult living conditions often choose to have many children when their survival is uncertain. Despite the dubious quality of medical care in Nigeria, in relation to most countries in the world, civilizational progress causes mortality to decline. This puts Nigeria in a demographic trap - in a situation where the survival rate of children is improving, but the birth rate is still high, resulting in a period of booming population growth.
Pandora's Box
Nigeria is experiencing overpopulation. However, not in the sense of a lack of space to live, but a situation in which the human population grows to a level that exceeds the possibilities of sustainable settlement. Where resources such as water, shelter, food, education, transport, and healthcare are not sufficient to meet the needs of the growing population.
It is no longer India that is the country with the most people living in extreme poverty who are living on less than $1.90 a day. UN estimates show that over 90 million Nigerians live in such conditions. This is over 15 million more than in India. Consequently, there is a problem with food. Nigeria's vice president, Yemi Osinbajo, calls this problem existential.
Nigeria is a country with a large area. Many of us fall for the illusion that affects the states close to the equator, and for which the Flemish cartographer Gerardus Mercator and his cartographic projection are responsible. This common type of mapping causes the countries close to the 0 degree parallel to be unnaturally shrunk on a map and those in the far north and south to be excessively enlarged. Nigeria is actually, nearly a million square kilometers of and is larger than countries such as Pakistan or Turkey. Compared to Germany, it’s 2 and half times larger. Therefore, it is not the lack of land that is the Nigerians’ problem, but the quality of their land. Desertification affects approx. 60% of the country's area, which is influenced by climate change and the Sahara expanding south.
Uncontrolled overpopulation leads to erosion and depletion of natural resources, where apart from over-exploitation of constantly decreasing areas of arable land, resources such as freshwater, fossil fuels, and the flora and fauna of the country are also eroded. The social sphere is degrading in a similar way, where there is a massive problem with malnutrition, unemployment, environmental pollution, and bad medical care, the lack of which leads to the emergence of diseases and pandemics.
All this mainly affects children and adolescents. According to the United Nations, around 43% of Nigerians are under 15 years of age. 62% of the population are people under the age of 25. Only 5% are over 60 years old. By comparison, Japan at the other end of the spectrum has 38% of the population over the age of 60.
The difficult life situation and the lack of prospects for young people are, in turn, a grist mill for terrorist organizations. Nigeria is rapidly urbanizing. Already at this point, more than half of the population lives in cities that do not have the infrastructure required to accommodate such a large number of people. Meanwhile, the Nigerian economy is unable to absorb all those who want to work. As a result, young people, especially in the north of the country, end up in the streets, risking radicalization and becoming potential recruits for Islamic fundamentalist and terrorist groups such as Boko Haram. Many of these young people also choose to take the dangerous journey across the Mediterranean Sea where they try to search for a better life in Europe. Therefore, the problem of uncontrolled population growth in not only Nigeria, but throughout all of Africa, should be addressed by the European Union and the United States.
Example in the Far East?
A large number of young Nigerians is a huge potential for the country. But this potential can only be utilized if they are properly educated and provided with the appropriate medical care and career prospects. Before that, many questions should be answered by Nigerian policymakers. How to reduce fertility to less than four children per woman? How to implement effective family planning models in society? How to improve education, especially among girls, so that they get married later. Hence, how to improve the social equality of women so that they have the right prospects in the labor market?
All of these factors are part of one big problem, which must be resolved or else Nigeria will face a difficult future. Widespread poverty can trigger unprecedented socio-economic and political crises. One of the ideas that emerge in the Nigerian debate is following the Chinese example. That is the statutory limitation of the number of children, e.g. to 3 per woman. However, China is not only a potential example of social policy, but above all a model of economic transformation. Thanks to its policy of openness to foreign investment and focus on global exports, between 1990 and 2015, Beijing lifted 65% of its population from extreme poverty, a trifle of 746 million people, a situation unprecedented in world history. Meanwhile, according to the World Bank, Nigeria is currently one of the most closed economies in Africa. Hugel oil and gas resources are not properly used for social welfare, and they make Nigeria a monocultural economy.
Therefore, Abuja must invest heavily in human capital, make itself attractive to the world as a reliable exporter and destination for foreign investment. Nigerians should be educated to create families for which they can provide an adequate livelihood. All these goals are extremely ambitious and if they are not met, Nigeria will inevitably fall into chaos.
Sources:
https://www.cfr.org/blog/nigerias-vice-president-speaks-plainly-population-and-food
https://qz.com/africa/1171606/nigeria-population-growth-rising-unemployment-and-migration-suggest-things-could-get-worse/
https://theconversation.com/why-nigeria-cant-fix-its-development-agenda-and-where-the-solutions-lie-123638
https://www.dw.com/en/the-77-percent-the-need-to-tackle-nigerias-population-boom/a-50663036
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-malthus-is-still-wrong/
https://leadership.ng/curtailing-nigerias-overpopulation-crisis-amid-plummeting-economy/
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/444979-nigeria-needs-urgent-action-on-food-as-population-surges-osinbajo.html
https://www.voanews.com/africa/nigerias-population-projected-double-2050
https://time.com/5324712/climate-change-nigeria/
https://guardian.ng/opinion/lets-tame-our-population-before-fighting-insecurity/
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/07/scary-nigerias-population-is-exploding-as-its-economy-risks-imploding/
