- Hubert Walas
Israel's Everlasting War Continues.
Massive protests against the Netanyahu government's proposed judicial reform have been underway in Israel since January. The corruption trial of Netanyahu and his ultra-right coalition partners has only added fuel to the fire and increasingly polarised Israeli society. As Israelis focus on domestic politics, international problems are also piling up. Iran remains a threat, and pro-Iranian groups are trying to take advantage of the chaos in Israel. As if that were not enough, relations with America are at their worst in years. What is happening in Israel? Is Netanyahu bringing the country to the brink of collapse?
Five times the charm
Israel's recent problems started in November 2018. At the time, there was an exchange of fire between the Israeli army and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Ostensibly, this was just another episode in the years-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But the consequences of this episode quickly spiralled out of control.
After two days of fighting with Hamas, Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to call a ceasefire. This was fiercely opposed by Avigdor Lieberman - Netanyahu's coalition partner and defence minister at the time. As a result Lieberman resigned as minister and led his party out of the governing coalition.
Admittedly, Netanyahu still had a majority in parliament. But only for a month. By December, the government was so divided that the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, was dissolved.
Netanyahu - who had been prime minister continuously since 2009. - was forced to fight for power in early elections. These were held in April 2019. - And, as expected, they were won by "Bibi", as Netanyahu is referred to. Bibi won the most votes. But not enough to form a new government. So Israel fell into a veritable electoral merry-go-round.
Five rounds of general elections were held between 2019 and 2022. They all ended in Netanyahu's victory, but each time, 'Bibi' struggled to form a government. As a result, Israelis were forced to go to the ballot box every few months.
The breakthrough came in the March 2021 elections. This time, his enemies from all sides of the political spectrum united against Netanyahu. A broad anti-Netanyahu coalition was formed, including nationalists, centrists, leftists and even - for the first time in Israel's history - Arab politicians. The leaders of this exotic coalition were the centrist Jair Lapid and the right-winger and former Netanyahu aide Naftali Bennett. They were divided by everything but united by their shared aversion to Netanyahu, whom they ousted as prime minister after 12 years in power.
It seemed to be the end of Netanyahu's brilliant political career. It was not only the fact that he had lost power but also how it had happened. Bennett, who took his first steps in politics years ago as an adviser to Netanyahu, has now stabbed his mentor in the back.
That was not the end of the bad news for Netanyahu. In the Knesset, he sat on the opposition benches. What's more, he was put on the defendant's bench in court in a trial in which he was accused of bribery, fraud and breach of trust.
Just when it seemed that Bibi was finished, the indestructible Netanyahu was back in the game. In the summer of 2022, barely a year after the formation of the Lapid-Bennett duo, their exotic coalition fell apart. Another general election was called, the fifth in the last four years.
This time, it turned out to be a major victory for the Israeli right. The camp centred around Netanyahu won 64 of the 120 possible seats in the Knesset. Bibi regained his seat as prime minister. However, the price he paid for this was enormous.
Bennett and Lapid
Hostage to your own government
That’s because Netanyahu had to form an alliance with two ultra-right parties, the Religious Zionist Party and Jewish Power. And the price of joining the coalition was to hand over critical positions in the state to the ultra-right.
The leader of Religious Zionism, Becalel Smotrich, became the new Minister of Finance. He was also put in charge of the civil administration of the occupied West Bank. Jewish Power leader Itamar Ben-Gvir became the new minister of internal security.
Smotrich and Ben-Gvir's views are radical - even compared to other right-wing groups in Israel. Both advocate the dismantling of the Palestinian Authority and the annexation of the West Bank. They also support increasing the powers of the military and loosening the rules for soldiers to open fire - especially in the occupied territories. Particularly controversial is Ben-Gvir, who, in his youth, was associated with the chauvinist Kach party, which is listed as a terrorist organisation in both Israel and the US.
Netanyahu's decision to enter into a coalition with the radicals was not only unpopular with Bibi's closest associates but also with the Biden administration, which tried to dissuade Netanyahu from allying with Ben-Gvir through unofficial channels.
But Netanyahu had no choice. If he wanted to return to the prime minister's chair, the votes of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir were essential. Thus was formed a government that the media hailed as 'the most right-wing in Israel's history'.
By handing over key positions to Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, Netanyahu has significantly reduced his influence over the new government's policies. Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, believes Netanyahu's position is weaker than ever, and his coalition partners know this and are ruthlessly exploiting it. Netanyahu may be back as head of government, but he is being held hostage by his ultra-right coalition partners.
The controversial judicial reform best illustrates the tensions within the ruling coalition and the influence of the coalition partners on the prime minister.
Ben-Gvir and Smotrich
A country without a constitution
In January 2023, Israel's Minister of Justice, Yariv Levin, presented a judicial reform project aimed at limiting the powers of the Supreme Court. Also, it should be remembered that Israel does not have a formal constitution but the so-called Fundamental Rights.
Levin's reform included changes to the process of electing judges, limiting the powers of the Supreme Court and introducing the possibility for the Knesset to overturn its rulings. The opposition fiercely opposed the reform, claiming it is aimed at protecting politicians accused of corruption, such as Netanyahu or Aryeh Deri, the leader of the Shas party, who was convicted of bribery and stripped of his ministerial post by the High Court of Justice. The reform has divided the country and caused mass unrest among large sections of the population.
Deri and Netanyahu
A few days after Minister Levin presented his justice reform project in January 2023, large anti-government protests began in Israel, involving hundreds of thousands of people and paralysing most major cities.
Public opposition to the reform was so strong that in March, there was even a split within the Likud, Netanyahu's party. Netanyahu temporarily halted the reform to cool emotions and offered the opposition to work together on the project. As a very pragmatic politician, Netanyahu tried to find a compromise solution. But his coalition partners, led by Ben-Gvir, made it clear that either the reform would go ahead or they would leave the governing coalition.
As a result, the Knesset resumed work on the project in the summer and passed the first law in the reform package in July, abolishing the Supreme Court's rationality test. This opened the door for Deri to return to the ministerial post he had been stripped of.
The issue of judicial reform is currently the one that most electrifies public opinion in Israel. Since January, regular protests have attracted tens to hundreds of thousands of people each week. The longer the protests continue, the more the functioning of the state is affected.
In February, Israel's central bank warned that judicial reform could harm the economy and discourage foreign investment in Israel. Some businessmen are threatening to pull their companies out of Israel. The protests also pose a threat to the state's defence capabilities. Indeed, reservists have become very active in the protests, threatening to stop reporting for mandatory reserve exercises if the Knesset passes the judicial reform.
Israel's current situation was well summed up by Yuval Diskin, former head of the Shin Bet, Israel's counter-intelligence service:
“Israel is on the brink of internal disintegration and severe social rift [...] It came much faster than I expected. We are liable to be on the brink of civil war, and this is because of our miserable government.”
While the fears of civil war seem somewhat exaggerated, the possibility of bloodshed on the streets of Israel cannot be ruled out, especially as Netanyahu's coalition partners are trying to form pro-government militias that could be used to break up the protests.
When Netanyahu halted work on judicial reform for several weeks in March to cool public opinion, Ben-Gvir threatened to quit the government. He abandoned the plan only after Netanyahu agreed to create a National Guard that would report directly to the Internal Security Ministry, which Ben-Gvir heads. Critics of the government claim that Ben-Gvir wants to legalise militias to break up protests. The idea has even been criticised by the current defence minister, Jo'aw Galant, who said there is no place for "private armies" in Israel.
With each passing week of work on judicial reform, Israel's internal situation becomes more complicated. Meanwhile, the country's international situation does not inspire optimism either.
Dreams of alliance with Arabs
When Prime Minister Netanyahu signed the Abrahamic Accords with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco in Washington in September 2020, it seemed that a window of great opportunity had opened for Israel. With the support of President Trump's administration, Israel had the chance to build a "Middle East NATO", a broad front against Tehran and the pro-Iranian militias operating in the region.
Time has painfully verified these hopes. The Abrahamic Accords did not lead to the formation of a pro-Iranian alliance. Quite simply, seeing the failure of US policy towards Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia began to reset relations with the Iranians on their own. In 2022 the Emirati ambassador returned to Tehran for the first time in six years. In early 2023, an agreement was signed in China to normalise Saudi-Iranian relations.
The Israelis believe that the relaxation in Arab-Iranian relations is temporary and that it is only a matter of time before things heat up again in the Gulf. Therefore, Israel hopes that Saudi Arabia will eventually join the Abrahamic Accords, reviving the discussion about a common anti-Iranian front.
Similar hopes are held by the Joe Biden administration, which believes that a negotiated peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia could improve the ratings of President Biden, who is up for re-election next year.
Despite US and Israeli diplomacy efforts, Saudi Arabia's accession to the peace accords is currently unrealistic. This is because the Saudis impose prohibitive conditions that neither the US nor Israel can accept. For example, the kingdom demands support for its nuclear programme and US security guarantees similar to those of NATO countries. The Saudis are also demanding an independent Palestine, which Netanyahu cannot accept, especially given the composition of the current government coalition.
Unsinkable Iran
So, the deal with the Arabs is moving away, and in the meantime, the threat from Iran, Israel's greatest enemy, is still accurate.
The Donald Trump administration's campaign of maximum pressure on Tehran has failed. The Americans pulled out of the nuclear deal and imposed crippling sanctions on almost every sector of the Iranian economy. But even this did not force the ayatollahs to make concessions.
Trump is no longer in the White House, nor is the nuclear deal, but the consequences remain.
Iran - just like in 2015. - is once again very close to building a nuclear bomb. Although the Biden administration tried to talk to the Iranians and return to the nuclear deal, the US efforts ultimately came to nothing.
The fact is that the US is tired of the Iran issue - especially as the Americans have enough problems with Russia and China. A growing number of reports suggest that Washington would even be content with an unofficial agreement with the Iranians. Tehran would give up uranium enrichment above 60% and halt arms sales to Russia. Whereas the Americans would give tacit approval for Iranian oil to return to world markets.
This would be a disastrous scenario for Israel. It would mean that the issue of Iran's nuclear programme would enter a state of limbo that could last for years, during which Israel would have to pour substantial financial resources into keeping the army ready to confront Iran.
The problem is not just Tehran but the whole pro-Iranian network in the region. From Israel's point of view, the presence of Iranian influence in neighbouring Syria and Lebanon is particularly problematic.
Assad survived the civil war and now controls most of the country. Arab countries that only a few years ago wanted Assad to be overthrown have now come to terms with his victory. At the Arab League summit in May, Syria was reinstated as a member of the organisation. For Israel, this is devastating news because the warmer Assad's relations with Arab leaders become, the more Israel will be criticised for bombing Syria - and this is the only tool Israel has to sabotage Iranian operations inside Syria.
The situation in neighbouring Lebanon is also highly unfavourable. Lebanon is now a failed state, economically bankrupt and in a permanent political crisis from 2019. Israel hoped that such a state of affairs would strengthen anti-Hezbollah sentiment. But nothing of the sort has happened. Not only does Hezbollah operate perfectly within the Lebanese chaos, but it also tries to take advantage of the political anarchy that prevails in Israel.
"Israel, once a formidable regional power, has gradually eroded in faith, consciousness, self-confidence and humility, leading to the crisis it's currently experiencing. It is undoubtedly the worst day in the history of the Zionist entity," said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah at the end of July.
The number of Hezbollah provocations on the Israeli-Lebanese border is steadily increasing, with some in the military expressing concern that Nasrallah's ultimate goal is to provoke Netanyahu into sending troops into southern Lebanon, which would further exacerbate divisions in Israel.
The creeping intifada
The Israeli forces have not taken a break in the occupied territories either. Since last autumn, when Israel held its general elections, the number of attacks in the occupied West Bank has steadily increased. These attacks are not only carried out by Palestinians but also by Jewish settlers living in illegal settlements in the West Bank.
The West Bank came under Israeli occupation in 1967 due to the Six-Day War. Although illegal under international law, more and more Jewish settlements are being built in the West Bank. In fact, their number is growing exponentially. In the early 1970s, only about 1,000 Jewish settlers were in the West Bank. Today, there are around 490,000.
However, the destabilisation of the West Bank is not only due to tensions between Palestinians and Jewish settlers but also to divisions within the Palestinian community itself.
Support for the Palestinian Authority and Fatah, which governs the West Bank, is waning. Polls show that nearly three-quarters of Palestinians want Mahmoud Abbas to step down. His term as president ended in 2009, but he continues to head the Palestinian Authority in the absence of elections. Dissatisfaction with Fatah's rule leads to increasing radicalisation among young Palestinians, who are joining more radical groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Netanyahu's coalition partners also exacerbate the situation in the occupied West Bank. Smotrich, who heads the Civil Administration in the West Bank, permits Jewish settlers to break the law. Similarly, some of Ben-Gvir's actions as Minister of Internal Security can be seen as inciting the settlers to further escalation.
Palestinians fear that the actions of Smotrich and Ben-Gevir will ultimately lead to the annexation of the Israeli-occupied territories and the end of the idea of an independent Palestine.
The situation in the West Bank is now so tense that some commentators even talk of a third intifada.
Rift with America
But, after all, in crisis, Israel can always count on the United States, its main ally. But can it? This "special relationship" has gone through deep trouble in recent years. There are several reasons for this.
Washington believes that Israel is sabotaging US efforts to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Americans advocate a 'two-state option', meaning the coexistence of an independent Israel and an independent Palestine. The expansion of illegal Jewish settlements undermines American peace efforts. The Americans also have growing doubts about the progressive rapprochement between Israel and China in recent years. Among other things, the Americans have criticised outsourcing the management of the strategic port of Haifa to the Chinese Shanghai International Port Group.
The personal dislike between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Biden is also no secret. The Democrats resent Netanyahu's close contacts with Donald Trump. The White House is also unhappy with the presence of the radical right in the Israeli government.
The magic of bitterness, on the other hand, was poured over the judicial reform. When Biden expressed his doubts about the reform, Ben-Gvir responded very harshly: "Israel is not another star on the American flag".
The crisis between Israel and the US is so great that some politicians have even questioned the legitimacy of the US continuing its financial aid to Israel, which amounts to $3.8 billion annually. Daniel Kurtzer, former US ambassador to Israel, put it bluntly:
“The aid provides the U.S. with no leverage or influence over Israeli decisions to use force [...] U.S. aid provides a multibillion-dollar cushion that allows Israel to avoid hard choices of where to spend its own money and thus allows Israel to spend more money on policies we oppose, such as settlements.”
The Netanyahu camp seems to think it can wait out the crisis in relations with America. After all, if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, a "great friend" of Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu will be back in the White House.
Such a policy is short-sighted, however, because it leads to Israel building its relationship with Washington on a Republican rather than a bipartisan basis. This is already a problem, as US polls clearly show.
In a 2023 Gallup poll, 54% of Americans supported Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But when respondents' party affiliation broke down these results, two very different pictures emerged. As many as 78% of Republicans sympathised with Israel. Whereas nearly half of Democrats said they sympathised with the Palestinians.
Worse for Israel, polls show that younger generations increasingly favour Palestine rather than Israel. According to the same 2023 Gallup poll, more than 50% of baby boomers sympathise with Israel. But among millennials, sympathy is fairly evenly divided, with 42% for Palestine and 40% for Israel.
It is doubtful that America will withdraw its financial support for Israel in the coming years. However, it is reasonable to assume that - as generations change - voices critical of Israel will become more common in America, making it harder to sustain the current nature of the US-Israel relationship.
Après moi, le déluge
Israel is at a crossroads. The rule of Netanyahu and his ultra-right coalition partners is polarising Israeli society, and judicial reform pushes the country to the brink of internal disintegration. While Israelis are preoccupied with domestic politics, problems on the international stage are gathering pace. Dreams of a broad anti-Iranian front have been brutally tested, the issue of Iran's nuclear programme remains unresolved, and the White House is increasingly critical of the Israeli government's actions.
Netanyahu's team seems wholly absorbed in domestic politics without noticing or downplaying Israel's problems on the international stage. Netanyahu is a pragmatist, but his coalition partners are limiting his room for manoeuvre and putting the government on a collision course with the opposition and America.
All of Israel's problems could be solved by Donald Trump's return to the White House - or so Bibi seems to think. It would then be possible to return to Trump's Middle East peace plan - favourable to Israel - and to play an aggressive game with Iran again.
But if Trump does not return to the White House, Israel's problems will only worsen, and even a skilled politician like Netanyahu will find it hard to control the chaos he has created.
And so, Israel's everlasting war continues. Both externally - with the state's traditional rivals. But perhaps worse, internally, as the struggle for power and influence increasingly divides the Israeli people.
