- Hubert Walas
Echoes of war.
According to the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the Russian Federation has amassed more than 92,000 troops near its border with Ukraine and is preparing for a full-scale attack in late January or early February 2022. This is by no means an attempt by Kyiv to draw international attention to itself, as the head of NATO and the U.S. intelligence community have spoken in similar terms. Moreover, the scale of the Russian military's movements portends an invasion on a much larger scale than the one carried out almost 8 years ago. Everyone will ask - but why? In this episode we will try to present Moscow's logic and the situation in Ukraine.
This is Not a Drill
According to Budanov, a Russian attack would likely include air, artillery, and armor attacks, followed by airstrikes in the east, amphibious attacks in Odessa and Mariupol, and a smaller incursion through neighboring Belarus. The attack that Russia is preparing, Budanov said, would be far more devastating than anything previously seen in the conflict that began in 2014 and has to date killed some 14,000 Ukrainians.
As Michael Kofman of the Center for Naval Analyses says, the current mobilization and a similar grouping of forces from April of this year should not be considered separate acts, but part of a single series of events that began in the spring of 2021. The truth is that most Russian troops stayed in position, never leaving the region near the border with Ukraine. Now Russia is repositioning its forces again along the border with Ukraine and has brought back many units from its far east and the Central Military District, among others. There is no clear explanation as to what the purpose of these moves is. Experts confirm that it is certainly not part of an exercise.
What is troubling is that in the spring, the media was flooded with videos showing Russian force groupings and troop transports. Now these movements are much more concealed and there is very little footage itself. Many transports are done at night to avoid detection. All of this should be alarming because it raises questions about Russian intentions.
It is clear that the March-April activities were not a single move by the Russians just to force some political concessions. More likely, they are preparing and positioning themselves for a potential invasion of Ukraine, this time a far larger one. This is not a "further offensive in Donbass" as the assembled units suggest, but something much larger. We don't know what political decision was made, but all indications are that at least a year earlier the Russian military was ordered to be prepared to launch a large-scale offensive into Ukraine the moment such an order came from the Kremlin. The decision may not come in the coming days, but we don't know what the next cold months will bring. In this context, the increased movements of the Russian military near the Ukrainian border are a symptom that something dangerous is coming.
The Triune Russian Nation
Now, let's look at the current internal conditions in Ukraine. There is no reason for optimism here either. The political situation is, even euphemistically, tough. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is currently in the middle of a battle against Ukrainian oligarchs, specifically their influence on Kyiv politics. Zelensky recently signed a law that prohibits oligarchs from subsidizing political parties and participating in the privatization of certain state resources. In addition to fighting the oligarchs, whose power in Ukraine is very significant, Zelensky is not helped by the fact that only 33% of Ukrainians rate his tenure as good, meaning that a full two-thirds of Ukraine assess his presidency negatively.
Post-2014 Ukrainian society is largely anti-Russian and a major focus for the Kremlin. Changing the Ukrainian people's attitude toward Moscow appears to be another goal of the Russians. They are investing heavily in the self-proclaimed Separatist Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Companies in these areas can count on free access to the Russian market. Including access to Russian government procurement. In other words, the pro-Russian eastern territories receive economic support and access to a large market, while the rest of the Ukrainian economy barely makes ends meet. Money is the best motivator and these days news spreads fast. In this way, the Russians want more eastern regions to move towards the core of Moscow’s orbit while discrediting the seemingly inept government in Kyiv.
Most importantly, however, Ukraine is now the target of energy isolation by Moscow and, more recently, also Minsk. The Russians have stopped deliveries of coal to Ukraine and, at the beginning of November, energy transmission was also stopped by Belarus despite the fact that a new agreement had been concluded only a few days earlier. Moreover, a large part of the Ukrainian budget consists of payments for gas transit, mainly via the Brotherhood Pipeline. Kyiv hopes that the five-year agreement with Gazprom will bring between $7 and $15 billion to the budget. However, if Moscow wishes to completely cut Ukraine off from these revenues, it will be able to do so thanks to the German-Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is in its final stages of completion. Thus, it seems that another blow to the structurally weak Ukrainian economy is imminent.
A cold winter and a lack of energy supplies can lead to massive public discontent resulting in pro-Russian sentiment, especially in eastern Ukraine. So… “Russian troops entering Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, or Zaporizhia in the middle of a cold winter are greeted with flowers and rescue weary citizens from the incompetent government in Kiev all while bringing with them low coal and gas prices.” Is this the script written in the Kremlin? During the time when international attention is focused on the Polish-Belarusian border crisis, President Zelensky suffers low approval ratings, and when economic and energy problems result in social discontent may be a perfect moment for Moscow to take its next desired step in Ukraine.
So the question arises - what calculations are currently being made in Moscow? Why would Russia actually go so far as full-scale aggression against Ukraine? What is the logic behind it? Here we have to prepare to draw out the full context and describe its many factors.
According to Kofman, the Kremlin, above all, seems to have moved a red line with regard to Kyiv. It is no longer about Ukraine's membership in NATO which was unlikely anyway. Moscow is now making it clear that it is about the presence of American and British troops in Ukraine, the establishment of training camps, or the flying of American bombers and reconnaissance planes over Ukrainian territory near the Russian border. This was presented by Vladimir Putin himself at the last meeting of the Valdai Club in October this year. The Russians fear that the American presence will lead to the deployment of U.S. missile systems and other sophisticated military technology on Ukrainian territory. In practice, other than political agreements, there is nothing to prevent this from happening.
Fearing American power projection, Moscow's elites are making it clear that they do not recognize the current government in Kyiv. The first signal was Russia’s rejection of Zelensky's proposal for talks to resolve the seven-year conflict in eastern Ukraine. In his October article for the Russian newspaper Kommiersant, Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president, explains that Russia will not negotiate with a country that is vassal to the US. Medvedev summed up Zelensky as "weak, irresponsible and ignorant." As if that wasn't enough, Medvedev’s article also points out the Ukrainian president's Jewish origins and his support for neo-fascist movements in Ukraine.
This commentary is part of a broader Kremlin narrative set by Vladimir Putin with his July 12, 2021 article titled, ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ which is an interpretation of history meant to serve the Kremlin's contemporary political goals. The main thesis of the article is that Ukrainians are an eternal and inseparable part of the "triune Ruthenian nation," and the bond is based on a thousand years of history, language, "Ruthenian" ethnic identification, common cultural space, and the Orthodox religion. Moreover, the article teaches us that there is no basis for talking about a separate Ukrainian nation before the Soviet era and its statehood after World War I was only ephemeral. Putin goes on to write that the Ukrainian nation owes its statehood and territorial shape to the Soviet era and so, according to this logic, breaking good-neighborly relations with Russia should mean a return to Ukraine's 1922 borders. That is, it should de facto be part of the Russian empire. Putin undermines all the foundations of Ukrainian independence by accusing Kyiv of falsifying and mythologizing history. He calls into question the genocide of the Ukrainian people in the 1930s, describing it with the vague notion of a "common tragedy of collectivization."
In Putin's view, Ukraine owes everything good after 1991 to Russia, which subsidized Kyiv by sustaining statehood there. The breakdown of good relations, in turn, has now made it "Europe's poorest country." Going further - Putin, like Medvedev, slams Ukrainian statehood, describing it as chronically weak and vulnerable to foreign influence, becoming hostage to someone else's geopolitical will. An entire section in the article serves to explain the Russian aggression of 2014. Putin states that the West wanted to create an anti-Russia, anti-Russian training ground, or "anti-Moscow Russia" out of Ukraine, but this project was rejected by millions of citizens there and Crimea made a historic choice. Finally, Putin notes that Moscow will not allow the quote "historically Russian lands" and their inhabitants to be used against it. Putin and Medvedev's articles are advanced preparation for their own people’s acceptance for what may come in the future all while bending facts and history to a predetermined thesis that serves political goals outlined by the Kremlin. (link to “Primakov Doctrine”)
Summing up, Russia fears American activity in Ukraine because it could herald even greater involvement by Washington, which would result in the deployment of American military systems on Ukrainian territory. This would fundamentally change the balance of power and make further expansion of Russian influence in Ukraine much more difficult. This, along with time, could lead to Ukraine's Western rapprochement, new trade agreements, and potentially even joining the European Union and NATO. A stable Ukraine, trading extensively with EU countries over land and with Asia through its Black Sea ports, all while benefiting from the wealth of its vast land area, would inevitably grow richer over time and match or even surpass Russia's wealth. Thus, Moscow would have a rich, strong, regionally important country at its feet, and then any attempts to influence Kyiv would be very difficult. Of course, this is a gross oversimplification - Kyiv has a host of internal problems, and the whole process could take decades, this scheme captures the sequence of events that the Kremlin wants to nip in the bud. Instead, Russia could create a new, politically dependent on Moscow entity named, "Novorossiya," which possibly might be formed to the South East of the Dneper river .
In Search of Hope
The Ukrainian side of this issue is supported by the United States, the European Union, and a whole range of other strong states, with the United Kingdom and Turkey at the forefront. Such a case could be widely argued and not without reason. However, here again, we must look at the broader context of the current geopolitical situation in the world. The biggest guarantor of Ukrainian independence in the Kremlin's eyes, the United States, is already saying outright that the European theater of operations is secondary for Washington. The priority is the Asia-Pacific and the rivalry with China. In this secondary theater, a secondary or even tertiary issue for the Americans is Ukraine. The most important are relations with Germany or Britain, which in the context of the struggle with the Chinese may prove decisive. The Americans need Ukraine to balance Russian influence in Europe, but it is hard to imagine that, at the moment of truth, someone from Texas would want to die for Kharkiv. Additionally, in the context of the U.S.-China rivalry, Russia is aware of the importance of its territory and the raw materials it supplies to China. Moscow may believe that no matter to what extent it tarnishes its reputation in Ukraine, the Americans will sooner or later knock on the Kremlin door looking for advantages in their rivalry with China.
With the European Union, the issue seems to be even simpler. Moscow does not recognize the EU as a unified, coherent entity. It recognizes only the strongest states, which it considers poles of power, i.e. Germany and France. Paris has long invited Moscow to talks on the shape of European policy, treating Russian military power as a tool to displace American influence on the Old Continent. Even more important in this game, Germany has subordinated its entire energy policy to the distribution of Russian gas in Europe, intentionally making itself and Europe dependent on Russian gas. What is more, they did it consciously, at the expense of Ukraine. So would it be reasonable to expect that Germany will throw this whole plan out overnight?
However, it would be infantile for Moscow to think that a potential conquest of Ukraine would not be met with any reaction from the wider West. And indeed, no one in Moscow thinks so. That is why for years Russia has been preparing for another, probably much stronger round of sanctions. What would be the effects of this? Russia has the fifth lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, at less than 14%. The Russian Federation now has the highest gold and currency reserves in history. They currently stand at over $620 billion. Significantly, in addition to gold, they are based primarily not on the dollar, but on the euro, so as to make them as little dependent on the Americans as possible. Going forward, the price of energy resources - the main component of the Russian budget - is going up. The world’s energy crisis is growing and, as noted earlier, Europe is dependent on Russian hydrocarbons. In a word, Russia has been preparing for this very scenario - and war - for years.
However, there are arguments to be made in favor of Ukraine. First of all, Ukraine's largest and most loyal asset is its substantial armed forces currently numbering at 250,000 troops. However, the problem here is the state of the equipment and the capabilities it can present. Although Ukraine's army is much stronger than it was in 2014, it is beyond debate that Russia has a significant technological advantage on the battlefield. There is also the question of morale. If the Russians gain a large advantage in the first hours of fighting and quickly push forward, then the morale of the Ukrainian army could come into question. The hope for Ukraine is the potential help from the American space reconnaissance system. However, here too the Russians are taking concrete steps. On November 15, 2021, the Russians shot down their own defunct satellite from orbit and, in the process, created a cloud of debris potentially threatening the International Space Station and China's Tiangong station. At the same time, it was a clear signal to the Americans not to consider helping the Ukrainians in reconnaissance from space as Russia is ready and able to neutralize such capabilities.
Voices of support for Ukraine are also coming from NATO, Sweden, and Turkey. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg recently met with Ukraine's head of diplomacy Dmytro Kuleba to discuss Russian troop movements. Declarative support exists, but NATO as a whole does not have the capacity to help Ukraine in any significant way.
Stockholm is also evidently concerned. The Swedes have announced that they are prepared to send soldiers to Ukraine for training purposes. Sweden feels Russia’s presence in the north, so it has a keen interest in countering any acts of Russian aggression in Europe. Interestingly, Sweden seems to be the only European Union country that has converging interests with Ukraine in this context and at the same time has military technology that is not inferior to Russia's. If the Ukrainian state remains independent for the next few years, Stockholm should be one of the most important Europeean cities for Kyiv.
Hope for Ukrainians can also be closer cooperation with Turkey which fears the Russian Federation's increasingly powerful position in the Black Sea basin. On November 19, Kyiv ratified a new agreement on military cooperation with Ankara. As part of this cooperation, the Ukrainians acquired 6 sets of Bayraktar TB2 unmanned drones from the Turks. In a word, the Ukrainians are desperately looking for help wherever they can because their situation is becoming hopeless.
The Russian narrative of completely discrediting the government in Kyiv, talking about a vassal country of America, also carries another message since it points to what Moscow really fears, and that is the reaction of Washington. The hegemonic position of the Americans, though diminishing in relative terms compared to previous years, is still a force to be feared. Experts agree that only the Americans can make a phone call to Moscow carrying a message about potential retaliation that would raise the cost of war to an unacceptable level to the Russians. Senator Bob Menendez has proposed an amendment that would automatically trigger another round of sanctions - hitting Nord Stream 2, major Russian financial institutions, and Russian foreign debt transactions, among others - in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The question is whether such a scare is enough? U.S. strategic signals were probably also conveyed by CIA chief William Burns in his recent conversation with Vladimir Putin on November 8.
The “nuclear option,” in terms of sanctions, would be, for example, to exclude the Russians from the international transaction system SWIFT as has been discussed several times before on the occasion of crises caused by Moscow. Forecasts predict that such a move would reduce Russia's GDP by as much as 5%, or about $80 billion dollars. Dmitry Medvedev, quoted earlier, compares cutting off SWIFT to declaring war.
The question now is: would the United States be willing to raise the cost of any potential Russian aggression against Ukraine to that extent? Let’s hope we won’t have to find out in the near future.
Sources:
https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/11/20/russia-preparing-to-attack-ukraine-by-late-january-ukraine-defense-intelligence-agency-chief/
https://soundcloud.com/brussels-sprouts/russias-escalating-pressure-on-ukraine-and-europe-with-michael-kofmanand-kadri-liik
https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1455294700605300742/photo/1
https://rochan-consulting.com/yelnya-barracks-analysing-maxars-image/
https://www.space24.pl/rosja-zestrzelila-nieczynnego-satelite-usa-i-nato-potepiaja-udana-probe?fbclid=IwAR2pbbVQ9aBHAYK8vwCPHCuFBzaqadMEIsrRXClKKStpBSFymuz4pcO-avs
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art19108591-merkel-obawia-sie-wojny?fbclid=IwAR3nXplr45ONKeX53wHJ74FBKUomil9eRqkPbfoqzwxteY7lueSoN_G6bzQ
https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/forsvarsministern-beredd-att-skicka-svensk-militar-till-ukraina
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/3352396-sweden-may-send-troops-to-ukraine-to-train-armed-forces-soldiers.html
https://wpolityce.pl/swiat/574488-rosyjski-plan-gry-przeciw-polsce-jaki-jest-cel-moskwy?fbclid=IwAR1QCh_ha0PYT7meAeYKRhNEdU6TaZg9kgBDFoPJMDHaUHfEkLSBwGK0D3o
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art19108591-merkel-obawia-sie-wojny?fbclid=IwAR3nXplr45ONKeX53wHJ74FBKUomil9eRqkPbfoqzwxteY7lueSoN_G6bzQ
https://spacenews.com/russia-destroys-satellite-in-asat-test/?fbclid=IwAR1x55eohOgz01tp6IBtuaedWnMcClsyOFcHf3ex7UVQdhPbQt3uaAWh48Y
https://nypost.com/2021/11/13/hundreds-of-uk-troops-reportedly-ready-to-deploy-at-ukraine-border/?fbclid=IwAR0RnKThW0SnJpJpA0pWYatcTDRPZeEhWX4Bvx6Vb3RuKz_rw_mo_W6DyZc
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_188552.htm
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/15/politics/us-intelligence-russia-ukraine/index.html
https://www.ft.com/content/d4eada1f-2849-4d3a-9c40-be797addd8cb
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/12/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin-521139
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/13/europe/uk-russia-war-risks-intl/index.html
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/is-russia-planning-another-assault-in-ukraine/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctLOtI32cWY
https://nypost.com/2021/11/08/cia-director-william-burns-met-with-vladimir-putin-on-ukraine/
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/11/19/ukraine-russia-putin-border-522989
https://www.osw.waw.pl/pl/publikacje/analizy/2021-07-13/putin-ukraincy-to-rosjanie-ukraina-to-anty-rosja
https://www.wsj.com/articles/space-armageddon-and-putins-threats-to-ukraine-russia-antisatellite-weapon-11637183651
