Is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam a threat to Egypt and Sudan?

Hydropolitics of the Nile?

The Nile, measuring over 6,600 kilometers and the longest river in Africa, has been providing life to the desert countries of North Africa for millennia. However, people have only recently been able to harness (ujarzmić) the energy richness of the Nile. Dams on the river in Egypt or Sudan greatly contributed to the development of these countries. However, now Ethiopia decided to claim its piece of the pie by building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. Why has the project caused a panic in the Cairo cabinets, and what are its prospects?

The Life Giving Nile

Competition in the Nile Basin has been increasing for at least 3 decades. However, the tensions peaked in 2011, when Ethiopia began building the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The cost of the project was estimated at around $5 billion and although Chinese banks provided financing for the purchase of the turbines, Addis Ababa financed the construction mostly by itself. With a target capacity of almost 6.5 GW, it will be the largest power plant in all of Africa. The dam whose construction is slowly coming to an end is located on the Blue Nile, the largest tributary of the Nile in terms of the volume of water supplied. It fuels the largest river in Africa with approximately 80% of its water during the rainy season. The GERD reservoir, on the other hand, has the capacity to hold 88% of the Nile’s annual flow as measured in the southern Egyptian city of Aswan.

The Great Renaissance Dam is only 15 kilometers east of the Sudan border, so any disturbance caused by water retention will affect not Ethiopia, but rather only the downstream countries - Sudan and Egypt. We are talking about over 140 million people, which is comparable to the combined population of Germany and France, and whose freshwater access is based on the Nile. It is therefore no surprise that the project is facing opposition from Sudan and, above all, from Egypt, whose dependence on the Nile is unquestionable. Egypt draws 90% of its freshwater from the Nile and 99% of the country's population lives on its banks. There are not many countries as multi-vector dependent on a single factor as Egypt is on the Nile. For Sudan, the Blue Nile is also of considerable importance - the Roseires and Sennar dams are responsible for 80% of the country's total electricity production.

The Dam’s Debatable Impact

Cairo and Khartoum are arguing their concerns mainly by the lack of international bodies to objectively verify the impact of the Great Renaissance Dam on downstream countries. They do not trust Addis Ababa's assurances that it will be minor and, in some cases, even positive. Although Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan set up an international panel of experts in March 2012 to determine the impact of GERD, it later turned out that out of 20 documents, 7 were not completed, 2 were only available temporarily, and the remaining 9 were based on outdated or irrelevant information that is not covered by reliable sources. At least, this is what Amal Kandeel from the Middle East Institute, presenting the Egyptian perspective, disputes. He calls for establishing an independent evaluation of the project using the so-called Environmental and Social Impact Assessments, which is one of the basic principles in the applicable international environmental law. The implementation of such an assessment was also included in the "Declaration of Principles" signed by the representatives of Addis Ababa, Khartoum, and Cairo in 2015. However, more than 5 years have passed since then and the assessment still has not been carried out. Another attempt to evaluate the dam's impact was made in 2017 by The Tripartite National Committee founded by Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, which commissioned the study to two French companies. In the end however, the countries did not agree on the conclusions of the initial report with Sudan and Ethiopia on one side and Egypt on the other. Neither a joint statement was issued nor an agreement on the date of the next meeting of The Tripartite National Committee. Thus, to this day, there is no comprehensive report that would reliably and impartially assess the impact of the dam on the social, environmental, or economic sphere in Sudan and Egypt.

Moreover, Cairo argues that, unlike Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia has no water problem - its river basin covers 94% of its territory, while 50% of Sudan's territory and 96% of Egypt's territory are deserts. In addition, there are concerns about the greater impact of climate change, which could result in more severe droughts and floods depending on the season. Downstream countries are also worried about potential disasters that could come from damage to the dam.

An Ethiopian Perspective

Egypt also invokes historical agreements in its rhetoric. Including the one from 1959, which guaranteed Cairo an allocation of 55.5 billion cubic meters of water from the 74 billion available that flows via the Nile each year. The problem is that Ethiopia and the other nations upstream were not signatories to this agreement.

Ethiopia, which is one of the fastest developing countries in the world, considers the project fundamental to its independence. Today, more than half of the 110 million Ethiopians do not have access to electricity, while the demand for it is growing by 30% each year. The Ethiopians claim to recognize the importance of the Nile to the Egyptians, but they request the same from Egypt in respect to the upper Nile countries. The 1959 agreement, the historical treaty cited by Cairo, divides 100% of the Nile’s annual flow between only two states - Sudan and Egypt. The interests of the other nine Nile countries are omitted here. Ethiopians also point out that virtually 100% of Egypt's population has access to electricity, while in Ethiopia it’s less than half.

Meanwhile, Cairo is experimenting with its own mega-projects using Nile water, such as the Toshka project. A program of greening the desert by directing parts of the Nile towards the Sahara through a 240 km long canal system. Ethiopia sees it as an injustice that Egypt itself is constructing dams on the Nile, which give the state full access to electricity and free access to water for agriculture cultivation while opposing the same for Ethiopia, whose highlands provide 87% of the water in the Blue Nile.

Addis Ababa also presents the potential benefits of building a dam, such as better flood management in Sudan, where less than a quarter of the arable land is currently cultivated, so a reduction in seasonal flooding would have a positive impact on the harvest and economic situation of the inhabitants. In addition, the reservoir would reduce water loss due to evaporation and also reduce sedimentation in dams downstream. Ultimately, a hydroelectric plant would, of course, provide a source of cheap energy for Ethiopia, but also for the region more broadly.

We must also remember that internal pressures in each of the countries are very strong because in all three there have been uprisings and regime changes in the last decade. Today's leaders maintain a hardline in order not to appear weak to their own society. The increased involvement of Gulf states in the Horn of Africa and the conflicts in Libya, Yemen, and Syria further complicate the overall picture of the region. Adding fuel to the fire in his own style, Donald Trump said that if the Ethiopians won’t cooperate, the Egyptians could blow up the dam. Egypt's leader President Sisi also warned that the Egyptian air force is ready to hit targets inside and outside of the country. In addition, Ethiopians suspect Egypt of planning a military base in Somaliland, which further fuels tensions. However, a hardline answer would not suit anyone and is unlikely.

Unstoppable

What is the international response to all this? The United States joined the mediation, but the Ethiopians accused Washington of being biased toward the Egyptian side as it pressured Addis Ababa to sign an agreement favoring Cairo by threatening to withdraw $130 million in financial aid to Ethiopia if it fails to adjust. The Ethiopians also believe that it is American intervention that caused a shift in the front of the Sudanese who, in a sense, during this whole situation are sitting on the fence. They initially supported the project seeing the benefits, but over time changed their position joining the Egyptian side.

The last escalation of the conflict took place in mid-2020 when Ethiopia began to fill the reservoir with water. This prompted Egypt to intervene in the UN Security Council. Cairo argued that such a move poses a threat to international security, while independent impact assessments were still not done. Currently, talks are still underway involving diplomats from Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt, but also from the African Union, the European Union, and the World Bank. Considering the advancement of the project and the fact that the reservoir by the dam is already filling up, everyone realizes that the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can no longer be stopped. It will be completed and probably fully operational in 2022. What is currently the subject of the most passionate discussions is the reservoir filling schedule. It is in Ethiopia's interest that this happens as fast as possible so that the plant reaches full capacity within a few years. The position of Egypt and partly Sudan is obviously the opposite. Cairo would like the filling to be spread over a period of up to 20 years with the least possible impact on its interests, which is obviously not acceptable to Ethiopia.

In fact, in addition to defending its thus far privileged position in the exploitation of the Nile’s resources, Egypt is concerned that the Great Renaissance Dam will be the first of many hydrological projects that Ethiopia, as a country with an extensive river network, is planning. This, over time, could make Addis Ababa the gravitational center of the region. Taking advantage of the free access to energy, Ethiopia would have one of the key ingredients for stable and sustainable growth. Moreover, it would become an exporter of cheap energy, which would give it leverage mechanisms to exert pressure on many countries in the region. From a geopolitical perspective, this is a negative scenario for Egypt. On the other hand, it is a warning bell to reduce Cairo’s very high dependence on the Nile and look for other sources of freshwater, e.g. by desalinating seawater; or energy sources, e.g. in the form of solar power plants.
Each country firmly defends its interests in a situation in which the desire for economic growth, a tense internal situation, or uncertainty about intentions are mixed. The fact is, however, that the Nile is an invaluable resource for all 11 Nile countries and its effective management is in the interest of the entire region. And history shows that nothing can guarantee an increase in universal welfare other than permanent stabilization. And that should be the goal of every country in the Nile basin.

This was another episode of the 20s Report series. The first about Africa. Let me know in the comment section or with a thumbs up if this direction suits you. If you want to support our development in creating independent materials that are often absent from the mainstream media, become our Patron. There you will find access to certain bonuses, such as access to source scripts, episode polls, or your name in the credits. That's it for today, thank you and see you in the next episode!

Sources:

Nile Basin’s GERD dispute creates risks for Egypt, Sudan, and beyond
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/nile-basins-gerd-dispute-creates-risks-for-egypt-sudan-and-beyond/
Egypt’s sustainable development threatened by Ethiopian dam
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Nile Basin States Must Persist with Water Diplomacy
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An Ethiopian perspective: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
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Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan must learn how to share the Nile river
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Is Sudan's neutral stance hindering agreement over Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam?
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Ethiopia angered by Egypt’s alleged plan to establish military base in Somaliland
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