GTBT - Geopolitics forces change within the EU.

: Hubert Walas; Created: 25 June 2024

Brussels at odds with reality.

“It is clear that Europe's answers for its citizens are not working,” - Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said in August 2023.

This slogan could serve as a commentary on the many right-wing European parties that were successful in the June European Parliament elections. Meloni's party, the Brothers of Italy, won a landslide victory, improving its EU tally by as many as 14 seats. But the result in France was even more impactful, where Marine le Pen's National Rally dominated the elections, winning more than 30% of the vote and 30 seats, overtaking Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance party. In Germany, the far-right AfD confirmed its status as a second force after the Christian Democrats of the CDU/CSU. The Austrian FPO and the Polish Confederation also delivered very good results.

And so, the headlines of the world's liberal journals were dominated by slogans that Europe is "turning right," in some cases making a downright radical turn, often accompanied by references to the old continent's fascist, and nazi history.

But is such an assessment justified? How to read the European Parliament elections and why is Europe beginning to remember the immutable laws of geopolitics?

Turning right

From June 6 to 9, more than 180 million Europeans out of 357 eligible voted to elect 720 members of the European Parliament. This political body, which sits in Strasbourg and Brussels, wields considerable power, passing directives on the EU's single market, international trade, environmental sustainability, agriculture, immigration, and more. Each EU member country delegates members to the Parliament according to the size of the country. The Germans thus have the largest number of MEPs with 96, followed by the French with 81, the Italians with 76, the Spanish with 61, and the Poles with 53.

The parties themselves, on the other hand, merge into larger political groups in the European Parliament. They do this mainly on the basis of political and ideological views. There are currently 7 such groups in the European Parliament, plus a not-inconsiderable number of 100 non-attached MEPs.

In the last five-year term of the European Parliament, the chamber was traditionally dominated by liberal parties - that's how the following quartet could be described collectively. We are talking about the largest center-right European People's Party, the party of Ursula von der Leyen, the centrist Renew Europe, the left-wing Socialists and the Greens. Together, these parties had a majority of 489 seats and, depending on the issues under discussion, they formed coalitions and set the course of events in Brussels.

In early June 2024, however, the "Liberal Coalition" suffered a significant blow. The Greens lost 18 seats, the Socialists lost 4, and the Renewalists lost 23. The EPP took over part of the pot, gaining 13 seats, but the overall balance is clearly to the downside. Where did over 30 seats go? They went to the right, or even to the far right. The Conservatives and Reformists, which includes the Meloni party and Kaczynski's Law and Justice, won extra 4 seats. However, Identity and Democracy, which is even further to the right of them, which consists of le Pen’s National Rally, the Italian Lega or the pro-Russian Austrian FPO, won as many as 9 seats more. And that's not counting Alternative for Germany, which was recently expelled from this group. The AfD now has 15 MEPs in the European Parliament, six more than before. In addition to the AfD, a number of right-wing or far-right MEPs remain unaffiliated, including Poland's Confederation, Hungary's Jobbik, and Fidesz, which again won the election, albeit by a smaller margin than usual. There is speculation that Fidesz, AfD and Confederation could form a new party in the EU parliament, which would likely be even further to the right than Identity and Democracy.

So while the center and the left theoretically continue to hold a majority, the 2024 elections have shown that Europe is clearly moving to the right, and nowhere is this more evident than in France.

Macron’s Gambit

"Our civilization may die. It may die because it will be flooded by migrants who will irreversibly change our customs, our culture and our way of life." - said Jordan Bardella - the new star of French politics - in a crowd of 5,000 waving French flags. Barely 28, Bardella is the president of National Rally and a de facto protégé of Marine Le Pen, who formally remains the group's leader in parliament.

The charm and vigor of the young Bardella, combined with the fact that he does not bear the surname "Le Pen," has smoothed the image of a party that is increasingly less associated in France with a radical or even fascist movement and is beginning to win over a moderate electorate. Among other things, Le Pen has distanced herself from the German radicals of the AfD, saying she would not sit in the same Euro-parliamentary club with them. It helped, and tangible evidence of this tectonic shift in French politics came in the Euro-parliamentary elections, where National Rally crushed the competition, winning as much as 31% of the vote and 30 seats in Brussels - 4 more than the next two parties - Macron's Renaissance and Glucksmann's Socialists - combined.

Even before the election, Bardella’s campaign director Alexandre Loubet said that in the event of a significant victory for National Rally, the party would demand the dissolution of parliament and new elections. And to the surprise of many, Emmanuel Macron did just that after the results were announced - he dissolved the National Assembly and ordered snap elections to be held in just two weeks.

“We can't pretend nothing's happened... we had to make this decision [..] Dissolution is the strongest gesture—a gesture of great confidence in the French people. [...] And I say to the French people, don't be afraid; go out and vote ”. - said Emmanuel Macron.

The French president has thus taken up the gauntlet thrown down by the "Lepenists" and is making a bold move from a position of weakness, having lost the elections. At this point, the machinery of speculation has been set in motion - why did he choose such a foray? There are as many opinions as there are observers.

On the one hand, it can be said that Macron decided to take the initiative and, on the wave of Le Pen's victory, create fear of the far right and mobilize moderate voters on both the left and the right of the establishment to reject the radicals' offensive. Moreover, France's parliamentary electoral system, based on single-member constituencies, theoretically favors centrist and moderate candidates.

The problem is that the negative electorate of Macron and Le Pen has leveled off in recent years and is now even larger on the president's side. Moreover, after the first movements on the French political scene, it is clear that no one is in a hurry to forcibly fraternize with Macron against Le Pen and Bardella. The cordon sanitaire to isolate the party founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen no longer exists.

The left is forming its own four-party coalition against Macron and Le Pen. On the other hand, the "Gaullists" of the Les Republics, who seem closest to Macron's Renessainsce, have even announced an alliance with National Rally! For the record, this decision was taken by the party's leader, Eric Ciotti, with which he has upset a large part of his party colleagues, which will most likely lead to a split and division of votes between Le Pen and Macron. As of this writing, another big news followed. Marine Le Pen managed to win over Marion Maréchal, the number two in Éric Zemmour's Reconquista party. Marine, who interestingly enough is Marion's aunt, has thus managed to crush another rival and strengthen her bloc. Zemmour - also a far-rightist - said that Maréchal had "broken the world record for betrayal".

Some, like Louis-Vincent Gave, believe that finances are on the side of Macron and the ruling collation. The campaign is expensive and all parties' coffers are empty after the European elections, while banks are said to be reluctant to lend to the far right, preferring the center and the left. Yet, the time between one election and the next is so short that the voters need not be confused and demotivated. On the contrary.

In other words - another defeat is very real and Macron must be aware of this. But what if defeat is an acceptable option?

The presidential system in France - unlike in Germany, for example - means that the head of state holds most of the power. Thus, it is not the parliamentary elections but the presidential elections that are most important for the future of the Fifth Republic. On the other hand, since Macron and his party remain in power in both parliament and the presidency and are responsible for the direction of the country, they take most of the blows, which the opposition scrupulously exploits in difficult times.

So Emmanuel Macron may think that whatever the outcome of the elections, the realignment will help him. If he mobilizes voters against Le Pen and wins, he will strengthen the weak parliament and demonstrate that the far-right Le Pen will never take power in France. On the other hand, if he loses and National Rallt actually gains power there, Le Pen's party will begin to bear direct responsibility, giving Macron and his party the opportunity to strike back and exploit this fact in the much more important presidential campaign that will culminate in 2027. For the time being Macron will still be at the helm of power, so his risk is calculated, albeit of incomplete power. Interestingly, similar calls for early elections can also be heard in Germany, as Alan Posener argues in Die Zeit. In the case of Olaf Scholz's government, however, this would mean the loss of the chancellorship and most likely a third place behind the Christian Democrats and the AfD. At best, Scholz would end up in a coalition with the CDU/CSU and a few ministries, so it's no wonder he's in no hurry.

Returning to France, current polls indicate a victory for National Unity, albeit without the necessary majority. Le Pen would have to look for coalition partners, and with the situation developing dynamically, nothing can be ruled out. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Attal would be replaced in such a scenario by the even younger Bardella.

Multinational change

And so, whether we look at France, Germany, Italy, Poland or Spain, or smaller countries like the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Hungary or Slovakia, it is clear that the political scene is moving to the right of the spectrum. Why is this?

In the last two decades, the left has sought its philosophy in currents such as identity politics, or so-called wokeness, as an antidote to a range of social or even economic problems. This has also had an impact on foreign policy, especially in the context of migration. The policy of open borders, especially in Europe, was seen as a solution to the old continent's demographic problems. On the other hand, the migrants themselves, in contact with the culture of the place, were supposed to assimilate it gradually.

This policy failed., and the exact opposite has happened. Migration policies have led to the gradual internal destabilisation of many Western European countries, fueling the rise of the National Rally in France and Alternative for Germany in Germany, among others.

Thus, the slogans of equality, openness, or inclusiveness, while noble in essence and necessary in principle, have been misimplemented, leading to the current situation and the global decline of confidence in the left and the rise of right-wing groups. The ideals end when a woman is afraid to leave her house after dark, or to take an Uber to ride 5 kilometers, while a hitherto peaceful, family neighborhood turns into a place with a profile closer to Baghdad.

In this context, we also observe an even broader process. Stable, prosperous, peaceful times are times when left-wing groups grow in strength - when ideas emerge about how to dispose of society's existing wealth in the most equitable way. It is on such issues that candidates win elections.

Today, however, times are very different. The Russian war of conquest, the war in Gaza, the specter of war over Taiwan, or a number of other conflicts in Africa or the Middle East are affecting reality in such a brutal way that they can no longer be ignored. European countries are experiencing international chaos in different ways. Poland, the Baltic States, Sweden or Finland are looking at Moscow with the greatest anxiety. For a Greek, an Italian or a Frenchman, the issue of migration and an effective systemic solution is more important. This is also reflected in the economy.

When things are good, no one seeks a change. But the trend is clear. For two decades, Europe has been in free fall vis-à-vis the United States and China. On the other hand, during these two decades, at the helm of the EU were politicians of a similar profile, presenting the same ideas. In such a configuration, anti-establishment parties have a natural advantage of initiative and the ability to appeal to voters who are tired or angered by the constant lethargy of either local goverments or Brussels itself.

In this context, the situation may indeed resemble the Great Depression years of the late 1920s and early 1930s in Europe, when populists came to the fore in many countries. Today, however, the situation is much more stable. The dividend that Europe has built for itself over the decades continues to provide relative prosperity, wealth and, depending on where you live, security.

But there is no more margin for cognitive error. Without a viable plan for improvement, in the next elections, can bring to power much bigger part of the radical candidates..

Geopolitical Union

And so, in addition to the aforementioned migration issue, which will continue to dominate public opinion, Brussels - perhaps still lead by Ursula von der Leyen of the victorious EPP - will have to navigate through at least a few critical issues.

One of them is energy and climate policy, which are inextricably linked. The right wing of the European Parliament wants to eliminate or at least soften the premises of the European Green Deal. One compromise in this context could be a broader bet by member states on nuclear power.

Moreover, the Union still lags behind in the global high-tech race. Brussels will continue with the European Chips Act and the Critical Raw Materials Act introduced last year, but is it enough? Doubtful. Trade tensions with the People's Republic of China are also likely to escalate. At the time of writing, the Union has announced tariffs on Chinese electric cars that are expected to be as high as 38%.

Finally, the Union will have to play a greater role in the war in Ukraine. While in the past term, most EU countries, as well as Brussels itself, reacted to it completely unprepared. Now there is no room for sluggishness. In response to these challenges, Ursula von der Leyen is seeking what she calls a "geopolitical European Commission". One that is more active in world politics and can react according to geopolitical interpretations. Helping Ukraine, stopping Russia, or engaging in economic competition with China are all valid assumptions in principle.

But the big question remains - how much and to what extent will they be enforced? For even the best policies will amount to nothing if the entire EU system and structure is inefficient - and this doubt seems to be constantly in the minds of millions of Europeans. The elections were evidence of this, as parties advocating a greater role for nation-states and a reduction in EU bureaucracy gained ground.

Perhaps the biggest challenge for the “Geopolitical Commission”, and for the European Union in general, will not be migrants, Russia or China, but its own modus operandi. The Union must find a new idea for itself. To find a new fuel that will give it a fresh start and the motivation to reorganise and act. Is Brussels capable of this? There is much to suggest that without this fundamental change, the Union's policies will continue to be fruitless, leading to Europe’s further loss of relevance. And then, in the 2029 elections, the balance of power in the European Parliament could look very bad for the very idea of the European Parliament.

Sources:

Hubert Walas

Founder of Good Times Bad Times, author.

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Geopolitics forces change within the EU.

Turning right

Macron’s Gambit

Multinational change

Geopolitical Union

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