- Hubert Walas
New German realism.
“Today, we may have to answer a new German question. Only America and Europe together can keep the West strong, defending it against the unmistakable Russian thirst for power and Chinese ambitions for global supremacy. I am therefore firmly convinced that this new German question must be answered by a new German realism.” This is a part of the speech by the Minister of Defense of the Federal Republic of Germany, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who, on October 23, in Frankfurt am Main, made a tribute to the American superpower, stating that Berlin's future is firmly tied to Washington. Such a straightforward declaration made by one of the most important politicians in the country does not happen often. The more so because we are talking about a fundamental decision, not only for Europe, but potentially for the battle for global hegemony.
Salesman of the world
Before we move on to the speech itself, let's first outline the context of this event. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has been a part of the elite of German politicians for many years now. In 2018, she took the position of the head of the ruling CDU party in Germany, taking the position after Angela Merkel's presidency of 20 years. She is also one of the most serious candidates for the post of chancellor after Merkel, although earlier this year she declared that she does not intend to run for office. The Karrenbauer speech took place at the Steuben-Schurz-Society, an organization working on improving German-American relations. The place is no coincidence.
The relations in recent years, to put it mildly, were not the best. After the years of "Obamamania" when Barack Obama was treated in Germany almost like a rock star and since the election of Trump as president, relations between Berlin and Washington have cooled significantly. This was mainly due to the US irritation of Germany's approach to the Chinese problem. Berlin has chosen to pursue a policy of "Eat your cake and have it too." Germany was one of the greatest beneficiaries of the world order created after the collapse of the Soviet Union. At a time when a global policeman, the United States, was fully responsible for controlling strategic flows and maintaining global order, Germany took on the role of a global salesman. Year after year, the German economy achieved a monstrous budget surplus, the world's largest, and the champions from the Rhine exported 80% of their production abroad. And all this was possible thanks to the fact that American aircraft carriers guaranteed safe travel for German container ships.
The frustration emanating from Donald Trump was sometimes not taken seriously because of his style, but in fact, it was not without reason. Berlin, at the time of the constant escalation of tensions between Washington and Beijing, decided to take water in its mouth. The Germans did not want to choose sides. By the way, who would want to do that, while having a perfect spot? Despite the sharp opposition from the US, Germany decided not to exclude Huawei from building its 5G network. Against Washington’s wishes, the Germans were building a second line of the Nord Stream gas pipeline and remained deaf to Americans' calls to meet the 2% of GDP requirement for NATO defense spending. Instead, Berlin indulged in a dangerous balancing act, seeing that Europe may turn out to be the decisive place for the hegemonic rivalry between the United States and China. And we all know that it is Germany, who has the decisive voice in Europe.
Westbindung, the West direction
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer's speech may herald that an era has ended. The timing of this speech also does not seem to be accidental. It was delivered a week before the US elections. Although Berlin probably hoped for Joe Biden to win, it could not be sure, so the Karrenbauer declaration would be in force regardless of who would rule the US for the next four years.
The speech itself is a real tribute of the world's 4th biggest economy to the world’s greatest superpower. In it, the German minister recalls the most important events of humanity that Germany owes the USA, inter alia, is that "America taught Germany democracy". Next, Karrenbauer refers to the geographic gravity towards the West resulting from Washington's supremacy. “Westbindung is the answer to the famous “German question”, the question of what Germany stands for. Germany is a firm part of the West, and this is the only answer that makes peace possible at the heart of Europe. Today, we may have to answer a new German question.”
The new German question is a question about the system of values which is under threat as a result of a disturbed world order. For Germany, according to Karrenbauer, the answer lies in greater unity with the West - meaning Europe and the United States.
“Only America and Europe together can keep the West strong, defending it against the unmistakable Russian thirst for power and Chinese ambitions for global supremacy. I am therefore firmly convinced that this new German question must be answered by a new German realism.”
A new German realism
What does this new German realism mean? Here the German minister moves on to the declaration. First, as Germany depends on American protection, it must take more responsibility for maintaining the American-led order in Europe. Simply put, it must give more in the sense of conventional military strength and participation in NATO, but also to become more involved in the geopolitical game on the old continent. Especially, as the CDU leader put it, “in our immediate neighborhood.”
A word of comment - the last century has shown that such statements made by German politicians can end very badly. However, what is clear, this time the balance of power is quite different. In the Karrenbauer plan, Germany's goal is not to question the unequal division with Great Britain, France or Russia, as it was 80 years ago, but rather to take on the role of a caretaker on the European peninsula as a junior partner to the US and as an offshore balancer to push out rising Chinese and Russian influence. Currently, relative to its economic power, Germany is militarily disarmed, but Berlin could take more responsibility for NATO's eastern flank, for example by contributing financially to the military expenditure of Poland and Romania, which largely secure this front.
Moreover, as Karrenbauer continues, Germany does not want to seek nuclear weapons, which would probably not be a problem for them, but to strengthen and continue the program of Nuclear Sharing within NATO. Finally, also, the high-ranking German politician recognizes the fact that several hundred kilometers from the German border, the Russians have missile systems deployed that can easily reach German territory in violation of international treaties.
The major topic of China
And finally, how was the question of China addressed by the German defense minister? Germany is deeply concerned about Beijing's place in global trade. This applies to currency manipulation, aggressive intellectual property theft, investment inequalities, and unequal competition due to central subsidization. However, Berlin does not want to move towards deglobalization, the direction marked by Washington, but rather to strengthen the global framework of cooperation with the WTO as its core. For example, Karrenbauer says that it should not be absurd to think about a free market between the EU and the US without tariffs and restrictions. This is not a surprising suggestion given Germany's economic strength.
Interestingly, Karrenbauer's position runs counter to the proposal for Europe as presented by French President Emmanuel Macron. The French President explicitly said that he "profoundly disagrees" with the speech of a German politician. In the vision of Paris, Europe should declare independence from Washington and, as an independent player, face China, Russia and others. Karrenbauer quickly responded to Macron's allegations, calling the French idea an "illusion."
Time will tell whether Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer's proposal has received wide publicity in Washington and whether it will receive full support in Germany. Because despite the fact that the head of the CDU is one of the most important people in the Berlin administration, her voice does not have to be the voice of all of Germany, but only a call to the pro-American policy of the Federal Republic of Germany and all of Europe. The question now is whether this will overshadow relations with Paris and Beijing as well as result in a harsher course towards Moscow.
Sources:
Speech: German defense minister on America, the West, and the ‘new German question’
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/news/transcripts/speech-german-defense-minister-on-america-the-west-and-the-new-german-question/
France and Germany Agree on the U.S. More Than They Realize
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/france-and-germany-agree-on-the-us-more-than-they-realize/2020/11/25/a4739a2c-2eec-11eb-9dd6-2d0179981719_story.html
Barack Obama gets rock star reception in Germany
https://www.dw.com/en/barack-obama-gets-rock-star-reception-in-germany/a-48210666
Can the US and Germany finally see eye to eye on China?
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/can-the-us-and-germany-finally-see-eye-to-eye-on-china/
How Germany opened the door to China — and threw away the key
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-china-economy-business-technology-industry-trade-security/
Merkel looks east as ties fray between Germany and US
https://www.politico.eu/article/merkel-looks-east-as-ties-fray-between-germany-and-us/
As U.S.-China Relations Worsen, Germany Looks Out For Its Own Interests
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/26/927743257/as-u-s-china-relations-worsen-germany-looks-out-for-its-own-interests
Recently, I had the honor of being invited to cooperation by Jacek Bartosiak - CEO of the Strategy & Future think tank, a man responsible for the renaissance of geopolitics in Poland in recent years. The result of this cooperation will be my films produced for Strategy & Future.
