- Hubert Walas
Two scenarios for the year 2122.
After more than a hundred days of the war, we know much more about the war than on the day it started. We know that the Russian army's capabilities have been overestimated and conversely the Ukrainian army's underestimated. We have learned that due to the initial shock of the Russian invasion and Ukraine’s fierce resistance, the Western world was able to stand shoulder to shoulder in defense of its values and in the name of which Ukraine stood up to Russia. However, just as quickly, the calculating and relative nature of the war returned to many countries, once again highlighting divisions in Europe and driving the distrust of many eastern European Union countries towards Germany and France to record highs. We also know that the criminal actions, infamous in the pages of Soviet history, are no strangers to its heir, the current Russian Federation. The mass murder of civilians, deportations of thousands of people, most horrifyingly children, deep into Russia, or the use of food as a weapon is a return to history that no one expected to see in the 21st century. However, in the midst of all this, we still do not know the most important thing: the future, or how the Ukrainian-Russian War of 2022 will end.
Everything that was just mentioned will not matter in a hundred years. The details will be forgotten and only one thing will count: who won. If the war ends favorably for the Kremlin, this means that as a result of this war or a series of wars, Russia will subjugate Ukraine, Russify its inhabitants, and “annihilate” - to use former Russian President’s Dmitry Medvedev's terminology - any people standing in its way, the history books distributed in this huge area will be written by Vladimir Putin and his acolytes.
SCENARIO 1: RUSSIAN EMPIRE REBUILT
Sitting in 2122, in the shadow of Vladimir Putin's statue in the Novorossiya Liberation Square in the Russian city of Mariupol, we will read in "History of Russia in the 21st Century" about how the neo-Nazism that was consuming Ukraine - a rebellious Russian province - was defeated by the freedom-bearing Russian army. Then Ukraine, but now Novorossiya, since in 2030, the name “Ukraine” was banned and erased from all studies. Then we’ll read about how Russia had to stand up to the rotten Western world and bravely endured 7 lean years of economic exclusion. The economic chains in which Russia was shackled were felt most acutely in the first two years of the war, but over time they were loosened and they were abandoned for good in 2029 due to the peak of the energy crisis and the pent up demand for a range of Russian raw materials.
In "History of Russia in the 21st Century" we will not read about a million Ukrainian children abducted and deported deep into Russia. It will be presented as a sudden demographic miracle from the bottom. The Russian people, accepting collective responsibility for the future of the nation and doing their part to rebuild the population, have suddenly rekindled their desire for a larger family. The truth will be the least important thing here.
In the book, we will also read how Moscow's experience in the war against “Ukronazism,” the persistence of the Russian people, and the instability of the fractured, degenerate West contributed to Beijing devising and then executing in 2045 a successful campaign of attack on the rebellious province of Taiwan. The war would go on to be called “World War III.” And China's Great Patriotic War will have reversed for good the short 250-year reign of sea powers on planet Earth. The United States retreated to its role as an autarkic island, while a new world order will have been dictated in Beijing. The Chinese had assigned the subservient Russian nation to "maintain order" in the peripheral Eurasian peninsula of Europe. Chinese factories of simple components began to be relocated to the Old Continent to take care of the dirtiest and lowest margin tasks.
This is obviously a piece of science fiction, however - can we be sure? This year marks one hundred years since Joseph Stalin took control of the Communist Party. Stalin killed millions, yet he continues to be admired in many parts of Russia and his legacy underpins the current criminal nature of Russian power. The West knew it too, but tolerated it, because the Soviets were needed.
History is written by the winners and Vladimir Putin will want to write it his way. No matter how great the material, image, or human cost in Ukraine or Russia. A hundred years from now, it will only be a brief, chaotic period, while Putin will enshrine his version of history and Russia will carve out its place in the world hierarchy.
SCENARIO 2: FREE UKRAINE REBORN
Of course, there is also an alternative story. One in which the Western aid for Ukraine, instead of diminishing, grows further and Western technical thought, combined with the zeal of the Ukrainian soldier, begins to push the Russian invader out. In a panic to reverse the negative trend, the Russian leadership announces mass mobilization. During the first weeks of the mobilization, when untrained recruits die en masse against the trained, organized, and battle-hardened Ukrainian army, desperate Russian mothers and the poverty-stricken public take to the streets and demand change. Tension grows in the Kremlin, which results in the death of the Commander-in-Chief, Vladimir Putin, and several of his closest men. A brutal struggle for power begins in Moscow. Now without Kremlin control, local warlords and regional leaders raise local armies and declare themselves to be the legitimate rulers of the former Russian republics. After a period of chaos, a Chinese-led coalition with the U.S. and European Union, organizes a conference during which an international settlement is achieved and thus 7 new states have emerged from the rump of the Russian Federation.
After a difficult, chaotic decade since its inception, the decentralized post-Russian states begin to grow rapidly due to better use of their human and raw material resources, the introduction of economic reforms, and a tough fight against corruption. Thus, the economically liberated, powerful area of post-Russian Asia provides a new major stimulus to global GDP growth. Uniformly united around its own institutions, the Western world is emerging from a period of permanent instability, and values such as respect for the individual, the rule of law, and individual freedom continue to form the core of human development.
This scenario is no less fanciful than the first one. Moreover, it shows well why Western countries, even the US, show restraint in their support for Kyiv. The collapse of the Russian Federation is a potential pandora's box for the world. And the biggest problem remains the potential of Russian nuclear warheads that could fall into the wrong hands. But an equally legitimate question is whether, after Soviet crimes, the Cold War that nearly led to a nuclear exchange, and the Russian crimes of the 21st century: can the West afford the Kremlin playing the global villain a third time with a nuclear arsenal at its disposal?
Regardless, both of these scenarios, while remaining only a simplistic exercise of cause and effect, give us an idea of just how powerful the effects of the currently ongoing war could be depending on its finale. Such a simulation again illustrates that this is by no means an exclusively Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Although Ukraine is taking on the brunt of it, this war has the potential to fundamentally affect the fate of the world. The individual decisions that are made today carry a weight that is difficult to currently assess.
THE CURRENT SITUATION
Returning to current affairs that is typical of these reports, and moving from the macro perspective of a century to a micro perspective, it is worth looking at Western artillery. This is one of those decisions made on a micro-scale whose impact on the fate of the war, and thus the world situation will be decisive.
Since the Russians, after suffering heavy losses at the beginning of the war, recalibrated their war effort, withdrew their forces from below Kyiv, and concentrated them in a smaller area, the picture of the Russian campaign has changed. Moscow has made its expectations more realistic and commanders have focused on the Russian army's advantages: primarily its dominance in firepower. Morale doesn't matter as much when you can't see your opponent and simply shower him with a hail of shells. Thanks to this, we have recently seen small, but steady territorial progress by the Russians.
The answer to violence during a war, following the considerations of Chancellor Scholz, can only be more powerful violence, and in this case, more effectively used - and greater - firepower. This is why Kyiv has placed modern artillery systems at the top of its list of priorities of Western aid from the beginning.
Such systems have already begun to flow to Ukraine. It began with nearly a hundred M777 howitzers delivered to Ukraine by the Anglo-Saxon countries, primarily the Americans. However, due in part to their limited mobility, which results in the risk of being hit by counter-battery fire, Kyiv did not stop calling for more advanced and self-propelled systems. At least several countries have responded to this appeal. self-propelled cannon howitzers, and the Czech Republic's 152mm-caliber Dana howitzer arrived in Ukraine. But most importantly, 18 of France's modern Caesar howitzers and equally modern Polish Krabs, 18 of which are already in service in Ukraine, took support for Ukraine to another level. Kyiv has ordered up to 60 more Krabs from Warsaw.
While the previously mentioned systems strongly enhance Ukrainian firepower, primarily its quality and effectiveness, they still do not represent the required firepower potential to break Russian quantitative dominance.
Only modern Western rocket artillery can fulfill that hope. After months of exhortation, Kyiv has also waited out this level of military assistance. On the 1st of June, Washington reaffirmed its commitment to provide Ukraine with the “High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems,” or HIMARS for short. Nevertheless, the Americans are doing this gradually, so as not to climb several rungs on the escalation ladder at once. The Kremlin strongly fears the potential of these weapons. With certain missiles, they allow for massive, precise fire at targets up to 500 kilometers away. Therefore in theory, by deploying these systems in northeastern Ukraine, Kyiv would even be able to fire on Moscow itself! Not to mention much closer cities such as Belogord, Vorozneh, or Volgograd. Therefore, Washington, fearing an uncontrolled escalation, decided to deliver only shorter-range missiles: those effective up to 70km. However, these are still lethal and would be among the most advanced weapons on current Ukrainian battlefields.
As reported by Rohan Consulting, American weapons systems compared to their Russian counterparts are accurate thanks to their precision-guidance. And unlike Russian B-27s or B-30s, which take 20 to 40 minutes to reload, American M142s are ready to fire again in 5 minutes. Add to this, the Ukrainian advantage in aerial reconnaissance, which will provide HIMARS with precise geolocation data, and the Ukrainians will have a near-perfect weapon. That is, in at least 3 weeks, because that is how long the training of the new Ukrainian crews is supposed to last.
The problem is that the Americans have decided to give Ukraine… a mere four M142 HIMARS launchers. This is a symbolic number, which will not have a decisive influence on the course of battle. Admittedly, the British have announced the delivery of 4 more units, this time of the M270 system, which, unlike the M142, has a tracked propulsion system making it less mobile, but with double the number of missile modules. And so, as Rohan notes, Ukraine will have 12 HIMARS-type launchers at its disposal. However, this is still a strategically insufficient number to completely change the dynamics of the battlefield. Of course, Washington may want to gradually introduce HIMARS launchers into Ukraine so as not to escalate the situation with Russia too rapidly. Perhaps the Americans want the Ukrainians to train on these few systems first, and as time goes by they will get more.
Nevertheless, decisions such as those on the delivery and number of HIMARS kits, or lack thereof, represent the potential to turn the tide of the war in favor of Ukraine or Russia, and thus influence the fate of the world order in the long term. Therefore, 100 days after the start of the war, the involvement of the Western world in helping Ukraine should not decrease but increase in order to accelerate the neutralization of hostility of the Russian Federation and thus maintain the existing world order that is beneficial to the West and - more importantly - to man as a free individual.
