- Hubert Walas
Ukraine's defence week.
This night will mark one week since the beginning of the Russian Federation's criminal invasion of Ukraine. For a week now, Ukrainians have been resisting, fighting for the future of their nation and the next generations, their children. Whether they will live for the next decades under the criminal regime in the Kremlin or enjoy the freedom of the Western world. All this is being decided these very days. As I was writing this text, both delegations were on their way to the second round of negotiations, which are to take place on the Polish-Belarusian border, in Białowieża.
Stagnation can be observed on the key fronts. However, it should be mentioned Russian troops entered Kherson and surrounded Mariupol. On the Black Sea, the aggressor is deploying marine forces and probably preparing for a landing. There is a slowdown in the Kyiv direction, while the Ukrainians launched their first offensive of the war. The Ukrainian 95th Brigade has entered the town of Horlivka in the Donetsk region and is fighting the occupiers stationed there. These are areas that have been occupied since 2014. The liberation of Horlivka would be a great success and would result in a boost to the morale of the Ukrainian military. The picture of the day was the destroyed column of vehicles in Buchy near Kyiv.
In addition, the Ukrainians report an attack on Zhytomyr. The target of the attack was residential buildings. Four people were killed, including a child. During the night a Russian landing was carried out near the military hospital in Kharkiv. The city is under rocket fire for another day. Here it is worth noting that until recently Russians made up to ¼ of the city's population, and in 2014 during the Euromaidan, it was Kharkiv that called for the reinstatement of pro-Russian President Yanukovych, who incidentally is now said to become a new puppet leader. If the Kremlin decides to suppress the most pro-Russian major urban center in Ukraine, it is an example that the initial plans failed and had to be revised.
The Russian side for the first time admits to concrete losses and they are serious - 500 dead, 1600 wounded. The Ukrainians estimate them at more than 10 times higher - nearly 6,000 dead. In addition, the Ukrainians have reported that more than 2,000 civilians have already died as a result of the fighting - many of these deaths are the result of deliberate shelling of residential areas.
Ukrainians fight evil with good. They show support, give warm tea and soup to prisoners of war. They allow them to call their families. They even allow them to meet their families, as long as their Russian relatives come to meet them in Kyiv. Of course, this humanitarian approach also has a pragmatic dimension. Troops with low morale are then more likely to surrender, and in turn, the mothers of Russian soldiers are potentially a loudmouth in Russia for the truth about the war in Ukraine.
Each day brings new footage of abandoned Russian equipment, often fully operational and with fuel in the tank. The Ukrainians have already been able to capture and incorporate into their forces, among others, the TOS-1 rocket artillery system, the $25m Tor-M2 guided missile system, or the T-72 and newer T-80 tanks, on the latter of which the Ukrainians made a joyride.
These are all harbingers of low morale among Russian soldiers, unclear operational objectives, or lack of good communication with the command. There is hard evidence for this.
Information is coming about the dire state of communications used by Russian troops. It turns out that in the operations conducted in Ukraine the aggressor can use civilian radio stations and cell phones. As a result, communication between units is intercepted not only by the Ukrainian army but also by radio amateurs. This is evidenced by recordings that have found their way to the net. We learn from them about problems with supplies and coordination of operations. The use of unencrypted communication was supposed to lead to a situation in which Russian correspondence was jammed during the fighting, which significantly hindered operations.
Moreover, the Americans add that the integration of infantry, aviation, and missile forces "seems to be lacking" in Russian operations. Particularly puzzling is the lack of significant Russian airpower involvement. Perhaps the Russians are worried about Ukrainian air defenses all the time. Today Ukrainian S-300 systems downed 2 Russian Su-35s, while the Ukrainians lost a MiG-29 in combat.
Overall, US intelligence reports are often confirmed in reality - the very outbreak of war, which they warned will happen, or the missile attacks on cities, where they have warned Russian commanders against carrying out. And it is also US Intel that reports, citing sources close to Putin's inner circle, that the ruler in the Kremlin, while not appearing mentally unstable, is experiencing outbursts of anger over the botched military operation and the scale of international condemnation.
Today, this has taken on another dimension - the UN today adopted by a majority of ⅔ of the votes a resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Out of 193 members of the organization, 141 countries were in favor, and only 5 were against Russia alone, Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea, and Syria. A fine company. 34 abstained from voting, including China and India. Not even such close allies of the Kremlin as Venezuela, Cuba or the former Soviet republics were in favor of the resolution.
Support from the world is not only in the clean world of diplomacy, but materializes into hard numbers. The "international legion" set up by Zelensky is beginning to form. The first information says that 1,000 soldiers from all over the world are coming to fight. This includes 70 Japanese or 400 Swedes. Further deliveries of weapons are announced. A very significant delivery will come from Germany. Berlin is to deliver 1,000pc of anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger launchers to fight the Russian airforce. And only a week ago the only thing Germany was willing to supply was 5000 helmets.
Further information on actions aimed at obstructing the movement of Russian troops in Belarus has appeared online. In addition to the attack on IT systems responsible for managing railroad traffic, sabotage was also reported to have been carried out on control equipment responsible for the operation of semaphores and switches on selected sections of railroad lines (e.g. Ostankovichi - Žerd in Gomel Region).
If this turns out to be true, another hacking attack may have been even more serious in its consequences. Ukrinform agency reported that as a result of a hacking attack by a group affiliated with Anonymous, the space agency Roskosmos lost control of its own spy satellites. This is not just a loss of space reconnaissance, this is potentially a hard billion-dollar loss for the Kremlin. But, unfortunately, this is information that is difficult to verify.
There is an information psychological war going on. We take part in it even unconsciously. Twitter user Mateusz Fafinski pointed out how important the psychological aspects the invasion maps published by all media in the world can be. Russian troops are advancing, and on maps presented on the Internet or television, we see more and more red areas, signed as occupied territories. Such a presentation actually directly serves the Kremlin's interests. The redder the map, the more victorious Russia moves forward and the more demotivated the defenders of the country may be. Meanwhile, the fact that Russian troops have entered a given city or area is by no means tantamount to an effective occupation or seizure of that territory. This continues to be contested. There are dozens of recordings of civilians defying the will of the occupying forces by resisting tanks with their bare hands. The Russians, on the other hand, do not have police troops to exercise effective control over these areas. Although that may be changing. In a word, in the case of war, and all-encompassing information, even maps can affect combat.
In Russia, the government is increasingly muzzling the truth. The last remaining, even minimally liberal media, such as the Echo of Moscow radio station, are being closed down, the YouTube platform is being considered for banning, and the Russian Ministry of Truth, e.g. Education, is trying to make moves known from Orwell's 1984. It has announced that tomorrow there will be a nationwide lesson on the "mission to liberate Ukraine".
Alexei Navalny is urging Russians and Belarusians to take to the streets. However, so far, there are not many examples that would prove that a coup in Russia is likely.
At this point, it is worth noting that the Kremlin is trying to destabilize the situation in Poland as well, using the migration crisis for this purpose. As a result, it turns out that the events at the border in November last year were a test for the Kremlin of what is happening now. But Poles and more broadly Europeans are welcoming people fleeing the war-ravaged country with open hearts. Yesterday, 4 women and a small 2-year-old child, brought by my father from the border, showed up at our house. Two of them left their husbands in Ukraine, who are fighting for their homeland. Despite this, unverified information appears more and more often in the Polish media, aimed at destabilizing the country. The disinformation campaign is surely underway in many European countries at the moment.
One week after the beginning of war, we can try to summarize the first stage of hostilities.
There is no denying that Ukraine's military situation is very difficult. Despite the resistance put up by the army and the civilian population, the Russian troops are advancing. The situation of Kyiv is not yet unresolved. It seems that the aggressor first wants to deal with the fierce of resistance of Kharkiv. The destruction of this city would send a message to the inhabitants of the capital what their engagement in the defense might end up with.
The Ukrainians will not lack the will and determination to defend themselves, but despite the collapse of the original attack plan, Russia has the resources to defeat Ukraine. The Russian Armed Forces Command has been given a task that it will be willing to carry out regardless of the costs and losses incurred.
Time also verifies certain political decisions. A big mistake, which the Americans had alerted to before the war, was the passivity of the Ukrainians in preparing for the invasion. Zelensky decided not to make a general mobilization in order not to give arguments to Moscow to start a war. Unfortunately, the war decision had already been made much earlier. This may be suggested by the Russian's supposed plans of attack, which were captured the Ukrainian side. In theory, there were approved on January 18. The invasion plan called for an operation from February 20 to March 6.
Ukraine could have mined the approaches in the key directions, first of all, north of Kyiv. Put up barrages, prepare explosive charges, in a word, do everything to slow down the enemy's attack. Kyiv's passivity could also encourage the Russians. If it had not been for last-minute deliveries of armaments from Great Britain and the United States, today this could be over
On the other hand, hope is brought by the high morale of the Ukrainian military and the low morale of the aggressor, chaos in the Russian ranks, and further arms deliveries to Ukraine. Gradually, sanctions will also work, although their impact will not affect events on the frontline. Unless they contribute to concessions from the Kremlin, although the messages coming from Moscow do not indicate that so far.
This war may not end soon.
Therefore, I would like to inform you that this is the last of the daily analysis presented on this channel. This week was a marathon of work, which due to limited resources - that is, two people - we are not able to continue. This does not mean that we will stop creating them, but only that they will appear more irregularly. For now, we will continue to devote our attention exclusively to the war in Ukraine. By the way, I welcome all new viewers to the channel, I hope that soon we will be able to talk about more pleasant things.
