- Hubert Walas
New order.
Day 20. The Ukrainians are preparing for another Russian offensive and the world powers are studying the rapidly changing balance of power to best look after their own interests.
Russian troops around Kyiv remain static. It is likely that regrouping for a larger offensive is taking place. The situation of the Ukrainian troops is very difficult in the Donbas region and in Mariupol. Slowly and systematically, the Ukrainians are being pushed out, while Mariupol is probably cut off from any supplies. The coastal stronghold may, unfortunately, fall in the near future.
Mariupol is becoming the new Grozny. Up to 20 000 inhabitants may have already died in the city, and up to 80% of its infrastructure has been destroyed. This has nothing to do with liberation; the city and its population are being annihilated.
In the southwest, the Russians struck toward Kryvi Rih but were repulsed. Capturing Nikolaev remains one of Russia's main objectives. Recent reports indicate that a landing on Odessa may be a matter of days or even hours away. Operationally, there are many indications that the Russian commanders will want to cut Ukraine off from the sea and create an artificial republic along the entire southeastern strip along the lines of Luhansk or Donetsk separatist republics. This would strengthen Moscow's position at the negotiating table, and Ukraine would face the dilemma of losing part of its territory to achieve peace. It is uncertain what the West would do if the Ukrainians rejected such terms. The risk is that Kyiv would be pressured to accept unfavorable truce terms in order to end the war quickly.
Two days ago there was a rocket attack on a training base in Yavoriv 18km from the Polish border where International Legion soldiers were stationed. At least 35 people were killed and more than 130 wounded. The attack was preceded by a Kremlin statement that Russia recognizes Western supply lines as "legitimate targets". Rockets also fell on Lutsk and Lviv, cities that had previously been an oasis for people fleeing eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin's message is simple. For the West - don't help Ukraine, or you will die. The civilian population, on the other hand, is to be even more panicked, and this is supposed to translate into increased migration and thus destabilization of Western Europe, especially Poland.
Further attacks on the West of Ukraine are unfortunately likely but are to remain sporadic. In contrast, the destruction of NATO supplies and Ukrainian groupings in the West of the country remains largely beyond the capabilities of the Russian military. Russian real-time reconnaissance is absent or is of low quality. It is one thing to destroy a permanent base, which, by the way, should have been empty a long time ago, and quite another to destroy moving supplies or temporary concentrations of Ukrainian troops. Thus, NATO will most likely continue to supply and Russia will sporadically strike at predetermined static targets in western Ukraine.
Therefore, deliveries to Ukraine should be continued and their scope expanded. Combat aircraft are one thing, but Ukraine would benefit even more from ground-based air defense systems. Delivery of Western systems - such as Patriot batteries or CAMM is rather unrealistic - among other things because of months of training required to operate them. However, there are still many post-Soviet systems in Western countries that would be of great help to the Ukrainian army and could be sent into combat almost immediately. The most desirable are the S-300 systems, in various variants. Among NATO countries, only Greece has these - 12 units, not counting individual sets in Bulgaria and Slovakia. Nevertheless, there are still more numerous Buk, Tor, Osa, or Strela systems, the transfer of which to Ukraine should now be a priority, and hopefully, it will be done quietly, unlike in the case of MiGs.
As we slowly approach a full month of the biggest war since World War II, it is increasingly clear that it is overturning the existing international order. Many cards have been revealed, forcing the major players on the global chessboard to assess their own position and calibrate it.
Of particular interest in recent days has been an analysis by Hu Wei, a respected Chinese analyst with the Shanghai Public Policy Research Association. Of course, it cannot be regarded as the official agenda of the Chinese Communist Party, but it helps us understand Chinese optics or at least a part of it.
What are its conclusions? The analysis is critical of the Russian operation. Putin was unable to achieve his goals, and the Blitzkrieg plan quickly collapsed. This puts Russia in a difficult position, both internally and externally. Even if Moscow succeeded in installing a puppet government in Kyiv, which now seems impossible, the costs of war would still be too great. In a word, the military operation is an irreversible mistake.
According to the Chinese, the war has the potential to escalate and the West's participation in it cannot be excluded. If this were to happen, Russia would find itself in an even worse situation, as Russia's military potential does not pose a challenge to NATO. Almost every scenario is unfavorable for Moscow, and the darkest one assumes Russia's disintegration and the end of its imperialist project.
This all benefits the superpower status of China's main rival, the United States. The West, led by Washington, is consolidating, Europe is arming itself and strengthening ties with the Americans, and Russian gas on the Old Continent will be displaced by American gas. Moreover, the new system will spill over to the world, including Asian countries - Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan, which is especially important for China and will constitute a division between democratic and authoritarian countries. Thus, the power of NATO and the united West will strongly increase.
As a result, Beijing, according to the Chinese, if it does not cut itself off from Putin, in the new arrangement will be placed in the same basket as Putin's Russia and thus more isolated. Therefore, Wei reminds that in the world of international politics there are no eternal friends, there are only eternal interests. Now China must choose the lesser of two evils, and that is to free itself from the Russian burden. Moreover, China should act to stop Putin from escalating further. Beijing's reward would be not only international praise for maintaining world peace but above all, maintaining or even improving good relations with Europe and the United States - China's key markets. It is significant that in the analysis the author often emphasizes the person of Vladimir Putin, suggesting what is the source of the problem.
Is Beijing thinking along the same lines as Hu Wei? No one knows. Adding fuel to the fire are Russia's alleged requests for military support from China, as reported by the Americans. The Beijing-Washington line, however, is being maintained. Yesterday in Rome, there was a meeting between Jake Sulivan, the national security adviser, and Yang Jiechi, a member of the politburo of the Chinese Communist Party. The meeting lasted as long as seven hours. It is not known what the two men discussed, but this fact alone shows that Russia, previously positioning itself as a player equal to the U.S. and China, has today become the subject of major talks. This in itself says a lot about the decline of Moscow's position in the world.
Both hegemons have enough arguments to end the conflict with bilateral talks, but Beijing's tough stance would be decisive. Nevertheless, the Americans also still have unused Aces in their deck. Unofficial reports say that Washington may be preparing for a full trade embargo of Russia and a ban on Russian ships using key international waterways. This would be a powerful hit that could even be read by Moscow as an act of direct declaration of war. Whereas, Jens Stoltenberg, the head of NATO, announced that the new reality - that is, the one after the aggression on Ukraine and the Russian-Belarusian integration - requires a significant strengthening of the ground forces on the alliance's eastern flank, as well as a stronger air and naval presence. This is what we can expect in the near future.
Meanwhile, from Russia, we get further evidence that Russians are aware of and express support for war with Ukraine. Depending on the survey, 50-71% of respondents believe that the decision to launch a "military operation" was correct. This was not changed by the fact that 7 million anti-war text messages were sent to Russians by the hacker group anonymous. The few antiwar movements on a national scale are still only a fraction of the required social strength to be a real threat to the Kremlin authorities. Nevertheless, it is important to support and show them, because they are the only rays of light coming out of Russia's Orwellian reality. Nowadays, to go to jail it is enough to stand with a white piece of paper or a card with "two words" statement written on it. Marina Ovsyannikova showed particular courage. She is an employee of the state-owned Channel One, who presented an anti-war message "Stop the war, don't believe the propaganda, they are lying to you". Although there are claims from Ukrainians that this could have been a Kremlin-set show to cynically show the "good side of Russians," it is unlikely. Ovsyannikova was thanked by President Zelenski himself.
What's next? It is hard to say. Theoretically, there are voices saying that peace negotiations are taking shape and may bring a breakthrough. However, Russian diplomacy is known to be skillful in using such tools to buy time and lull vigilance, so their success should remain in doubt. One symptom of Moscow's current goals may be the destruction of strategic factories within Ukraine by the Russians. For example, the Kyiv plant of Antonov. This could be a sign that the Kremlin realizes that it will not be able to occupy Ukraine, so the goal now is to destroy its potential - mostly military. This could also provide an argument for the Kremlin to present the "special operation" in Ukraine as a successful mission that resulted in the destruction of Ukraine's military potential.
But who will pay for the reconstruction of this huge country? Frozen Russian currency reserves and seized yachts of oligarchs are a good start to the conversation.
