- Hubert Walas
War.
Ukraine is under full scale Russian attack.. No green men, no special camouflage. Right into the heart of the country. Ukraine at this moment is experiencing bombings all over the country. The Ukraine Ministry of Interior speaks of hundreds or even thousands of casualties.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense confirms that the Ukrainian army took up the fight against the aggressor. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenski declared martial law and appealed to citizens not to panic and to stay at home. But he added that if anyone is ready to sacrifice his life for the country, will be provided with a gun.
These are images from Kyiv, where thousands of people are fleeing to the west.
Let's briefly follow the initial reports coming out of Ukraine and the world, given that we are now all engaged in an information war and vulnerable to disinformation.
The Ukrainian Interior Ministry reports: Beginning at 05 am, Russia began shelling Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Luhansk, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolayiv, Poltava, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, and Kyiv. Later reports indicate that the entire country is under attack. Including its western part. The Ukrainian government further reports that as of 8 a.m., the Russian military had crossed the borders from Lugansk, Kharkiv, and Chernichov.
Reports from cities under attack indicate that the humanitarian law of armed conflicts has already broken down. That is, civilian facilities and civilian populations that are not defended have been attacked.
The first conclusions of experts are as follows - this is a large-scale military offensive. A missile attack is currently underway, most likely carried out with sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, ground-launched Iskander missiles and cruise missiles fired by Russian bombers. Targets include airfields, ports, air defense systems, command and control centers, ammunition and food depots, and infrastructure targets - such as bridges. It is a tactical preparation for a ground offensive - from many directions, in particular around Kharkiv. But also from the Belarusian side, which de facto means that Belarus has also declared war on Ukraine, although its president Aleksandr Lukashenko has said that the Belarusian military is not taking part in the invasion.
Moscow's goal is inevitably to crush the Ukrainian military's capabilities and fighting spirit as quickly as possible so that peace can be negotiated by Russia from a position of strength.
Very significantly, the Ukrainian embassy in Ankara reported that Ukraine has called on Turkey to close the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to Russian warships.
Whereas Vladimir Putin, in his morning speech justifying the invasion, spoke of the need to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, a country with a “Jewish president”. Rhetoric somehow familiar from history lessons. Putin said that Russia is not planning an occupation, but that the response would be immediate if anyone wanted to prevent it.
Diplomatic staff and ministries of all major countries have gone into alert mode since morning.
U.S. President Joe Biden reported that Russia launched an unprovoked and unjustified attack on Ukraine, and "The United States has cut off the Russian government from Western funding."
In turn, Beijing reports that "Russia, as an independent state, can make decisions based on its own interests." Thus, China does not oppose Russian aggression, further strengthening the Dragonbear alliance.
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO chief said - "I strongly and decisively condemn Russia's reckless attack on #Ukraine that puts countless civilians at risk. This is a serious violation of international law and a grave threat to Euro-Atlantic security." Meanwhile, the Baltic States and Poland are calling for the triggering of Article 4, which refers to a situation where "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any NATO party is threatened.”
The European Union, via Josep Borell, announces the toughest package of sanctions ever imposed. He is echoed by British Minister of State for Europe, James Cleverly - "an unprecedented level of sanctions will be introduced."
A day of reflection also comes for Germany. German Trade Minister and Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck - spoke about Russia's aggression against an independent state and admits that the West, including his government, was too naive towards Russia. Moreover, he talks about a turning point for German politics in a broader perspective. He adds that Germany will be able to cope without Russian gas.
While the Foreign Ministers of the Baltic States demand that Russia be disconnected from the SWIFT system.
The raw materials and financial markets are also experiencing a huge blow. A barrel of oil surpassed $ 100 for the first time since 2014. European gas prices increased by 41%.
On the other hand, the Russian ruble has hit its historic bottom against the dollar. And the Moscow stock exchange fell by 50%.
Finally, a few words of comment from us:
When at the end of November, as one of the first media from the geopolitics niche, we published the material in which we described the possibility of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, I was horrified by his conclusions. For the next three months, we watched the theater of diplomacy and Russian mobilization. Will they attack or not? They will certainly not attack because "the media are talking about it". In the era of the omnipresent Internet and information transferred at the speed of light, it is impossible to hide the repositioning of tens of thousands of soldiers and military hardware. The Russians saw it and that's what they played. Perhaps all the diplomatic drama we have watched recently was just a spectacle that was never meant to bring any solution, and the decision was actually made even a year ago, when we watched the first movements of the Russian military - we also recorded material about it.
Today, we cannot do much in the name of solidarity with Ukraine, but we commit ourselves to reliable reporting of the truth that will be effectively drowned out by the "fog of war". We are entering the phase of an intense information war. For this purpose, we also contacted a specialist in open source intelligence. We are going into an emergency mode of our activity. Special Reports will appear daily.
