- Hubert Walas
Terrorist State.
Europe's recognition of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism – a declaration made by a region that the Kremlin has always aspired to be a part of and made itself dependent on – is a symbol of the enormous failure of Russia's geostrategic plan. But the problems are only beginning to pile up. A mysterious death occurred in Belarus and Lukashenko is walking on a minefield where any move could cost him his life.
After more than 280 days of bombings and atrocities on civilians and prisoners of war, on the 23rd of November, the European Parliament approved a resolution declaring the Russian Federation a sponsor state of terrorism. As Brussels voted on the motion, Russian missiles fell on Kyiv killing three people.
The move is symbolic. The Union does not have a legal framework, definitions, and lists of terrorist states that would make Russia face concrete consequences after such an EU declaration. Some EU countries – Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland – have already added Russia to their list of terrorist states. With this resolution, Brussels is encouraging other capitals to make a similar move.
However despite being a symbolic and formally non-binding move, the European Union's pinning of the terrorist label on Russia is an extraordinarily important moment for Europe.
Russia has come an interesting way in one year. In January, Russia was the most important energy supplier to Europe, a key member in Paris’ vision of Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok – which was to finally lessen the Old Continent’s dependence on the United States. It had the global perception of possessing a world-class army and saw itself as a major player in the imminent concert of powers. However, 280 days later… Russia has gone from an arguably good place in the world given its potential and pre-war activities to being branded a terrorist state, thus being placed alongside of North Korea or Iran. The significance of this event cannot be underestimated.
The Kremlin may pretend otherwise, but from Moscow's perspective, Europe is unquestionably its most important area, whatever definition is adopted, be it economic, cultural, climatic or geostrategic.
This is precisely why Russia went to war with Ukraine. Because in its judgment, Moscow felt that the loss of such a key area, and the biggest bridge connecting it to Europe proper, was unacceptable.
Meanwhile, in addition to losing Ukraine, which will not look eastwards without contempt for at least the next half-century, the Russians are losing all their key links with Europe. The Kremlin has already lost 90% of its Northern European market share. By contrast, Russia's share of European gas imports has fallen from more than 50% at its peak, in early 2021, to around 17% and is still falling. Adding to the severed energy ties is the growing outflow of foreign capital, technology, and knowledge with each passing month. For any European company still operating in Russia, the label of providing services in a terrorist-sponsoring state is another blot on their image that could ultimately lead to a decision for permanent withdrawal.
Geostrategically, Russia is also losing the position it had – quite successfully – built up over the years. When discussing European issues, the first country that Moscow considered worthy of discussion was Germany. Next was France and it was the Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis that negotiated key European topics, often to the exclusion of the smaller, more problematic states east of Germany. It was Russia, France, and Germany, together with the invaded Ukraine, that formed the Minsk Agreements to end the war in the Donbass.
Therefore, the European Parliament's move is a sign of the growing importance of shaping Brussels' strategic outlook by the Baltic Countries, Poland, and even Ukraine itself. Countries treated as peripheral by Russia, which Moscow has been trying to marginalize for years, are the ones which pushed for this latest EU resolution, one that is an act of convergence of European perceptions about Russia – in line with Eastern Europe – and an admission of error by the West. Does it also herald the end of arrangements with the Kremlin bypassing the region geographically closest to Russia? Nothing is certain, but such a scenario is unlikely in the coming years.
This strategic, economic, and cultural disconnection from Europe poses fundamental challenges for Russia. Moscow, including Russian pro-government experts, say that this is the perfect time to turn away from Europe and look to the Far East. But this is easier said than done. Russia's entire history is linked to the areas west of the Ural mountains. Its entire economic and industrial base is in geographical proximity to Europe. Russia's two most important ports, St.Petersburg and Novorossiysk, sit by European seas. 75% of the Russian population lives in the geographically European part of Russia and this percentage is steadily increasing. The Russian Federation is an extremely centralized state and all roads lead to Moscow, which is best shown by the country's railway map. Thousands of kilometers separate Moscow from East Asia, the economic heart of the world's largest continent. And before you get there, you still have to pass Central Asia, which is increasingly signaling its growing disregard for its once most important superior: Russia. The refusal of Armenian Prime Minister Noklay Pashinyan to sign the CSTO declaration is just one of many recent examples of this. This video even shows Vladimir Putin throwing a pen as a gesture of disapproval.
Of course, hydrocarbons can be delivered to India or China by pipeline or tanker, but a top-down plan to turn the entire Russian state project towards Asia is a pipe dream. Even if Russia wants to move in this direction, it makes almost no sense due to Russia’s centralisation around Moscow and, to lesser degrees, around St. Petersburg and Krasnodar. This huge flip would make the peripheral far eastern port city of Vladivostok the most important city in the Russian Federation. And it is near impossible to imagine a country with its capital in Vladivostok continuing to call itself the “Russian Federation.”
Even with the best – and most devious – efforts, it would be very difficult to devise a scenario in which Russia damages its interests more in nine months than it has done since February 2022. The European Union's recent declaration is the order that effectively sets the new status quo for Russia: it being considered a terrorist state. Russia's acceptance of the order was confirmed in a manner worthy of any terrorist – another massive attack on civilians. Additionaly, new information suggests that Brussels might be (finally) coming to the conclusion that you don't negotiate with terrorists.
However, Ukraine is not the only country that separates Russia from Europe. There is also a second one, Belarus. This one, in theory, remains under Moscow's control, but to maintain this control, the Kremlin has to fight more and more with each month of failing Russian power. It is possible that this tightening of the noose around Belarus' neck recently cost the life of a senior Minsk official.
On November 26, Vladimir Makei, the head of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, died unexpectedly at the age of 64. There would be nothing unusual about this death – after all, people are mortal – were it not for several suspicious circumstances.
Makei did not show any health problems. On the contrary, he remained very active professionally and just the previous day, he met with the Apostolic Nuncio. The next day he was due to leave for the OSCE summit in Łòdź which was, quite significantly, an important international summit to which Makei's Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, had not been invited. Makei, although not a model democrat by Western standards, could have been considered one by Minsk standards. Before the 2020 riots, during which he sided with the dictator, he was mentioned as a potential, and more liberal, alternative to Lukashenko. Makei did not advocate a one-dimensional view towards Moscow, but sought to balance Belarus between Russia and the West. A meeting between a Belarusian dignitary and a Vatican envoy is usually associated as a channel of contact with the West. Participation in the OSCE summit, especially when the Kremlin envoy is absent, could have brought some proposals or signals unfavorable to the Kremlin. Perhaps Makei was meant to convey something important. Pavel Latushka, who heads the interim Belarusian government abroad, has suggested exactly this.
There is also another argument. Latushka admits that Makei knew Lukashenko better than anyone else. On the other hand, the Belarusian oppostion newspaper, Nasha Niva, wrote the following about Makei’s death: “Vladimir Makei, with his experience in the power apparatus, could be a key figure in the process of selecting a successor in the event of Alexander Lukashenko's sudden departure. And he was far from the most pro-Russian elements of the current Minsk elite. Consequently, many see the hand of Moscow in such a sudden death.”
Meanwhile, the Belarusian dictator's position is currently holding on by a thread. He finds himself in the middle of a minefield where any untold move could cost him his job, or even a fate like Makei.
It is clear that the Kremlin has been trying for months to force Lukashenko to take a direct part in its war on Ukraine. There have already been several signals that this could happen any day now. Lukashenko is trying to avoid this at all costs because, firstly, the Belarusian people do not want it and, secondly – and more importantly – the Belarusian siloviks do not want it. Without having the army at his side, Lukashenko and his entourage become defenceless. This opens up a major opportunity for the Belarusian opposition, or even more likely for the Russians, to easily take full control of Belarus. In such a scenario, the Russians would be killing two birds with one stone. Not only are they taking advantage of the Belarusians in their own war, but they are also weakening a subordinate state, raising the possibility of taking full control over it.
And this is not Lukashenko's only problem. There is a parallel opposition action against him codenamed Pieramoha, which in Belarusian means ‘victory.’ Aleksandr Azarov, minister in Svetlana Cichanouska’s interim government and, at the same time, leader of BYPOL, a formation of former Belarusian power ministries employees, has announced that the Pieramoha Plan is entering a decisive phase. What does it entail? It is about gathering information by Belarusians about the Russian military presence, the movement of their troops, and everything that could bring down the puppet regime of Lukashenko.
According to Pavel Latushka, "several representatives of the power ministries in officer ranks" have already joined the Pieramoha Plan. Azarov adds that 200,000 Belarusian citizens have already signed up for the action on a special website. Another opposition faction is a group led by the command of the Kalinouski Regiment fighting in Ukraine. Their relations with the Cichanouska faction are strained, however, they share the same goal: the overthrow of Lukashenko.
It may be that Makei died of natural causes, but the terrorist nature of the Russian Federation, the diplomatic meetings accompanying the date of his death, and the deep turmoil in the Belarusian power structures raise big question marks. Whatever the reasons for the death of the head of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, it is certain that the Kremlin's position is buckling. The naming of Russia as a state sponsoring terrorism by the European Union, the failure of the CSTO summit, and the consideration of sending confiscated Russian assets to Ukraine only add insult to injury. Will the Kremlin’s network soon break? No one knows. What is certain, however, is that the hopeless geo-strategic situation in which the Russian Federation finds itself due to the actions of Vladimir Putin and his entourage is clear not only to Western commentators but, above all, to the Russian and Belarusian elites.
SOURCES:
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