- Hubert Walas
The split between Poland and Ukraine.
The recent grain dispute on the Warsaw-Kyiv line has cast a shadow over the excellent relations between Poland and Ukraine since the outbreak of the war. At the same time, the US Congress is holding up the approval of an aid package for Ukraine. How do these events fit into the bigger picture? Is there a mythical "fatigue" of the West with the war in Ukraine?
Poland and Ukraine have been writing mutual history for hundreds of years. Geography has forced both political centres into constant polemics. Sometimes it has led to division and wars, sometimes to cooperation and growth.
Each of these disputes was the result of thousands of different variables, but in recent decades, even centuries, relations between Warsaw and Kyiv have depended primarily on the actions of external powers. Between 1945 and 1989, it was a top-down membership of a single political bloc centred in Moscow.
While the state of affairs in the second half of the 20th century was an artificially imposed paradigm that was later broken with the first free elections in Poland in 1989 and the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the subsequent positive feedback in Polish-Ukrainian relations was already a natural result of the common interests of both countries.
Although there have been many manifestations of Kyiv's disobedience to Moscow since the beginning of the 21st century, it was the war in the Donbas and the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 that put Ukraine and Russia on a full collision course. A collision course that Poland had been on for many years, as evidenced by its break from Moscow's oppression in 1989. But geography has mercilessly placed Ukraine at the forefront of this clash.
The Polish mentality is rooted in the suffering experienced by generations of Poles at the hands of Moscow and the political ideologies behind the destruction of millions of lives lost in their name.
So when, on 24 February 2022, another incarnation of the Russian imperial monster marched on Kyiv, the reaction of Poles was unequivocal - to help the Ukrainians defend their state and nation. On an individual level, everyone opened their homes and their hearts.
Nevertheless, it must be honestly admitted that, at the strategic level, the existence of an independent Ukraine standing up to Russia and moving towards the Western bloc was an extremely favourable situation from Warsaw's point of view.
For the first time in 350 years, the area between the Bug and Dnieper rivers up to Kharkiv was in the camp opposing Moscow. For the first time in centuries, Poland gained a buffer zone of over a thousand kilometres in the south-east. At the same time, the battle hardened Ukrainian military was degrading the capabilities of the Russian army and exposing its weaknesses.
In the meantime, the Polish political leadership took the long-delayed decision to massively improve the capabilities of the Polish military. The change in the balance of power on the Warsaw-Moscow axis has thus tilted in favour of the Polish capital, and as long as Russia degrades its military in Ukraine and sinks economically, this trend will continue. For the record, a Ukrainian victory as soon as possible would still be the most desirable outcome for Poland.
But while geopolitical trends change extremely rarely, diplomatic efforts and the public sentiment they shape have a much shorter horizon of influence. Yet their impact cannot be ignored.
We have seen an example of this in recent weeks when the biggest diplomatic crisis since the start of the war broke out on the Warsaw-Kyiv line.
Let us take a brief look at its origin.
The crisis-ridden Ukrainian economy is looking for money like oxygen. One of the few export products that Ukraine still has to offer foreign customers is grain. Almost half of Ukraine's exports are agricultural products.
Nevertheless, the window to the world for Ukrainian grain is firmly shut by the Russian blockade of Black Sea ports - recall that Russia suspended the 'grain deal' on 18 July. Moreover, the silos where Ukrainian grain is stored are a regular target of Russian missile attacks. Kyiv is therefore trying to export its grain by land. One of the best ways to do this is via the western border with Poland.
At the same time, the European Union, wishing to facilitate Ukrainian exports, decided to abolish import duties on Ukrainian products. The exception was a ban on imports of wheat, maize, rape and sunflower seeds from Ukraine. The ban was introduced on 2 May in response to complaints that Ukrainian agricultural products were destabilising the EU's internal agricultural market, in particular, the markets of neighbouring countries. Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland composed the main pressure group. At the same time, the transit of cereals was maintained, with African countries in the midst of a food crisis as the most desirable final recipients.
However, on 15 September 2023, the European Commission decided not to extend the ban on imports of certain cereals from Ukraine.
Grain has a limited shelf life and is a cheap product - and, therefore, relatively expensive to transport, especially by land. Polish ports on the Baltic Sea also had problems reloading Ukrainian grain. So when the ban on EU sales was lifted, the easiest solution was to sell Ukrainian grain as close as possible. As a result, Ukrainian grain flooded the nearby markets - to the dismay of Polish and other local farmers, who immediately raised the alarm to protect their interests.
“What was designed to facilitate an emergency transit route for Ukrainian grain, so that it could reach its traditional recipients outside of Europe, eventually turned out to be a scheme allowing for the unrestricted sale of grain on the Polish market. 600 times more wheat was exported from Ukraine to Poland in the first four months of 2023 than the year before, causing market disruption and losses for Polish farmers.” - wrote Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau in his article for Politico.
In response to the tense situation, Warsaw maintained its decision to allow Ukrainian grain to pass freely through Polish territory but introduced an embargo on sales within Poland. Kyiv responded by suing Warsaw, Bratislava and Budapest to the World Trade Organisation for failing to comply with the EU directive. The whole situation is a feast of bad decisions from which only Moscow benefits in the end.
So why did Polish and other regional leaders had to react to the dumping of Ukrainian grain in the country? If they had not, they would have risked strengthening anti-Ukrainian voices and their own position in the run-up to the upcoming elections, as the import ban met with the unequivocal approval of the Polish public.
It is important to remember that while geopolitical trends rarely change, we live in a dynamic system we call democracy. If a single issue is not addressed quickly enough, anti-Ukrainian parties, driven by their own agendas, not necessarily in line with the long-term interests of the country, would become increasingly vocal. In any case, such voices can be heard in every country that supports Ukraine, fuelled by the Russian army of trolls trying to create a negative image of Ukraine.
Kyiv was granted the right to sell its grain in Poland in accordance with EU directives. But taking Poland to the WTO was a bull in a china shop. Headlines pitting the two biggest allies against each other were all over the world. Although such disputes in international forums are nothing new, in times of war, the consequences of such moves carry many times the stigma - especially for a country fighting a defensive war. What's more, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenski implicitly suggested that Poland's actions were supporting Russia, saying that the actions of some states were "helping to prepare the stage for an actor from Moscow". - This was tantamount to adding fuel to the already fiery debate raging in Poland at the time.
In an exchange of messages, Poland's announcement that it would 'stop sending military aid to Ukraine' also has gone around the world. Even though it was misinterpreted due to the insufficiently clear stating by the Polish prime minister. The Polish public, on the other hand, read the complaint as the height of ingratitude. Even the biggest supporters of the pro-Ukrainian cause in Poland found it difficult to defend Kyiv's decision.
The Ukrainian attitude has been characterised as a situation in which - because of a common enemy - it is sure of Polish aid, which encourages Kyiv to play hardball with Warsaw. What Ukrainian decision-makers failed to take into account was that they were making it much harder for their Polish counterparts to argue for the continuation of substantial aid to Ukraine and, worse still, they were alienating Polish public opinion - which, in the eyes of the world was always presented as the greatest supporter of Ukrainian independence.
But where is the source of the problem? The answer is simple - Brussels. As Jonathan Eyal, associate director of the UK think-tank RUSI, points out, "The EU Commission failed in its duty to defend farmers in central and eastern Europe by deciding that there was no longer a need for a formal agreement preventing the dumping of Ukrainian agricultural products. It was a politically disastrous decision which guaranteed division". EU officials did not foresee the chain of events we see today. If Ukrainian grain had been shared equally within the Union, or if Brussels had guaranteed subsidies for its transport, Poland and other countries would not have had to impose their own embargo, and Ukraine would have had guaranteed revenue from its sales - crucial to the functioning of its wartime economy.
Some might say that Poland could cover this problem from its own budget in the name of a much more important cause - that of defeating Russia. But again, democracy forces politicians to be in tune with public opinion - which was clear in the case of Ukrainian grain. The import ban had a broad social consensus.
Some commentators saw Brussels' decision as a deliberate move by the Franco-German lobby, which sees the Polish-Ukrainian bloc as a potential long-term threat. Others saw the EU's action as a move to influence Poland's parliamentary elections in October - the decision was taken a month before the polls. Whether intentional or not, the milk has been spilt.
While good relations with Poland and continued support from Warsaw are strategically important for Kyiv, by far the most crucial thing for Ukrainians is the US position on the war.
There have also been signs of concern for Kyiv on this front. On Saturday 30 September, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy excluded additional aid to Ukraine from measures to keep the government funded until 17 November. The Senate package included a $6 billion increase in aid to Kyiv.
AP notes that “The latest actions in Congress signal a gradual shift in the unwavering support that the United States has so far pledged Ukraine in its fight against Russia, and it is one of the clearest examples yet of the Republican Party’s movement toward a more isolationist stance. The exclusion of the money for Ukraine came little more than a week after lawmakers met in the Capitol with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He sought to assure them that his military was winning the war, but stressed that additional assistance would be crucial.”
US President Joe Biden presses Congress not to withhold aid - ”We cannot, under any circumstances, allow US support to Ukraine to be interrupted. [..] Stop playing games. Get this done”
In addition, the Ukrainska Pravda portal reports that the Americans, through Mike Pyle - the White House's deputy national security adviser - have sent Kyiv a letter containing a list of reforms that Ukraine must implement in order to continue receiving military aid.
According to Ukrainska Pravda, the letter was sent to Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and the Office of the President of Ukraine, among others.
The reforms have - very short - presumed feasibility deadlines and focus, among other things, on the functioning of the supervisory boards of state-owned enterprises, anti-corruption bodies, the High Judicial Council and the judiciary in general.
These guidelines are part of the trend we discussed in the episode on the state of the Ukrainian economy. Kyiv will have to make difficult, far-reaching changes to eliminate the hotbeds of corruption and fraud. And let's not kid ourselves - there are still groups in the government that put their own economic interests ahead of Ukrainian independence - the oligarchic arrangement in Ukraine is still in place, and it is one of the biggest threats in Ukraine's struggle with Russia.
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Having said all this, the most important thing is what we said at the beginning of this material - "It must be honestly admitted that, at the strategic level, the existence of an independent Ukraine standing up to Russia and moving towards the Western bloc was an extremely favourable situation from Warsaw's point of view". It is also an extremely favourable situation for Washington.
The Americans solve their second biggest geopolitical problem in a year and a half, for just 0.14% of their GDP. In the world of international relations, this is the equivalent of winning the lottery. Ukraine provides no rational reason for domestic economic problems in either the US or the EU - with marginal exceptions described above - so claims of 'Western fatigue' are not borne out by the numbers. The West is as tired as it was on 24 February 2022. But another thing is the 'fatigue' in the information sphere, where Moscow agents and those sympathetic to the Kremlin are constantly sowing the seeds of discord.
A majority of people in Poland and the US are in favour of supporting Ukraine. A recent poll shows that 74% of Poles still support continued aid for Ukraine. A poll for CBS shows a similar sentiment among Americans. 75% support maintaining sanctions against Russia, 67% support sending aid, 54% support sending weapons.
At the same time, however, Kyiv has to remember that in any country, decisions to support Ukraine are ultimately made on the basis of public opinion. And that can always be damaged. At this point, the diplomatic battle is much riskier for Kyiv than for Warsaw. All the more so as Ukraine's immediate neighbourhood is becoming increasingly uneasy, not to say hostile, with Robert Fico's victory in Slovakia and the Serbia-Kosovo conflict brewing. Fortunately, the grain problem seems to be de-escalating. Poland is creating special corridors for the transport of grain, and details are being discussed regarding the transport and, under certain conditions, the sale of Ukrainian grain in Poland. And during the creation of this episode, Ukraine officials informed that Kyiv has suspended its WTO complaint against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia.
At the end of the day, all this is noise that serves the interests of only one actor - Russia. Nurturing the dynamics of internal sentiment in the supporting countries is an increasingly difficult task, but Ukraine’s diplomacy must do it to win the war with Russia. Moral righteousness in this war will always be on Kyiv's side, but in the end, it will not win the war for Ukraine. It will be won by the soldier, the bullet and the armour - the latter two of which the West must provide for the Ukrainians.
If Ukraine does not receive further and substantially increased military and financial aid from the West, the prospects of liberating the country will look increasingly bleak. Panta Rei - everything flows, the situation at the outbreak of war is different from today. But it is important to remember that, as Timothy Snyder writes, "Supporting Ukraine is a once-in-a-generation chance to make the world safer. Ending that support is recklessness for which we will suffer in all the conflicts that the Ukrainians are preventing or making less likely. Let us help those who help us.”
And we may well see a breakthrough on this issue, as US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reports: "The West is looking for legal ways to transfer $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, most of which are in Europe."
Author:
Hubert Walas
Sources:
https://jamestown.org/program/polish-ukrainian-grain-dispute-explained/
https://apnews.com/article/congress-ukraine-budget-security-assistance-799067491a1bba9671b4dfdf491d0a8e
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66977467
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-americans-aid-poll-2023-09-10/
https://oko.press/sondaz-ipsos-wiekszosc-polakow-pomagac-ukrainie
https://twitter.com/JEyal_RUSI/status/1704838073475899774
