GTBT - Israel invades Lebanon

: Hubert Walas; Created: 14 November 2024

On Tuesday morning, Lebanon woke up to a reality that had been looming as something inevitable for a long time. A full-fledged war between Hezbollah and Israel had begun.

On Monday, September 30, the Israel Defense Forces announced a “limited” and “targeted” invasion of Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon “based on accurate intelligence.” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told troops near the border that Israel is ready to use forces “from the air, sea and land.” At the same time, the air assault campaign continues on the outskirts of Beirut, among other places.

For the time being, the IDF's ground operation continues in a limited area in the south of the country, but Lebanese citizens fear that with the resistance of Hezbollah militants, the scope of the operation will grow, both geographically and in terms of casualties. This is all the more so because, according to the Israelis, the paramilitary group's fighters are mixing with civilians or even using people as shields in order to protect themselves.

The goal of the Israeli operation (at least for the moment) is to neutralise the militants, as well as the infrastructure in the immediate vicinity of the border. It is likely that several settlements along the border with Israel are being targeted.

The Americans, via Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, supported a limited scope of operations along the border, while warning against a spillover of fighting. Austin also warned Iran against entering the fray, promising “severe consequences” if it chooses to do so.

Contrary to the IDF's announcements, some analysts, including Elijah Magnier, a military and security analyst, believe that the Israel Defense Forces' posture indicate a much larger scope of operations. “From open source [intelligence], we understand that the Israelis have prepared at least 18 brigades. So we are talking about between 70,000 and 100,000 soldiers,” Magnier claims.

According to the Lebanese prime minister, the country is facing one of the most dangerous phases in its history.

The elite 98th Paratroopers Division, which was already heavily active in Gaza, entered the fray. The 7th Armored Brigade, which is to be the cream of Israeli armored units, has also come to the forefront of the operation. On the other hand, one should keep in mind that Hezbollah plays on its own turf there. This will be a different campaign from the one in Gaza.

The invasion, although at the time of this writing, still limited in scope, has arrived like the finale of a bloody noose tightening around Hezbollah's neck for the past two weeks.

On Friday, September 27, an airstrike killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who had headed the Shiite paramilitary group since 1992.

The IDF's high-ranking officials have repeatedly said that they know Nasrallah's exact location and are capable of eliminating him at any time. These are the words uttered a month ago by Yossi Cohen, head of Israel's intelligence service—the Mossad.

It turned out that this was not a bluff. As recently as 24 hours before the attack on Nassrallah, an anonymous Israeli source told Reuters that Israel had spent 20 years of intelligence work to penetrate Hezbollah, and indeed had knowledge of the group's chief's current location, despite the fact that he had avoided public appearances since 2006.

Nasrallah's death, however, is only part of the campaign that has decimated Hezbollah in recent days. Let’s look at it day-by-day.

This map shows the airstrikes that the Israel Defense Forces carried out on Lebanese territory in the second half of September, wreaking the worst havoc the country has seen in decades, and decimating Hezbollah's structures. To be clear - the exchange of fire between the two sides has remained high for many months, and the escalation has taken on a cascading character since the Hamas attack on Israel a year ago. However, the past few days have dealt a particularly severe blow to the Lebanese militia.

It began with an attack reminiscent of B-action movies. On September 17, pagers started exploding en masse in the streets of Beirut and smaller Lebanese cities, as well as in Syria. The explosions were said to have killed 37 people and wounded nearly 3,000, but it wasn’t the end. In the second phase of the attack, on September 18, the same process affected walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members, bringing the deaths of another 20 people and injuring hundreds. In total, several dozen people are estimated to have been killed and up to 4,000 injured.

The group had avoided using cell phones, fearing penetration by the enemy from the south. In fact Hezbollah completely stopped using cell phones in early 2024, when the organization's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a televised speech called on the group's members and their families to give up their mobile devices. In February 2024, he said: "Turn them off, bury them, put them in an iron box and lock them up."

As a result, they switched to using pagers and walkie-talkie sets, which had already been in use for several years anyway. This fact alone may have lowered the group's guard against infiltration.

As it later turned out, the Mossad penetrated the supply chain of Taiwanese pagers called Gold Apollo Rugged Pager AR-924 and ICOM IC-V82 walkie-talkies. To this end, Israeli intelligence set up at least three companies whose duty was to produce pagers. Interestingly, they also served ordinary customers, but the target customer was one - Hezbollah. One such "shell" company was B.A.C Consulting in Hungary.

Israel is said to have had the ability to control the devices, including sending notifications. One of them turned out to be the final one. The explosive itself was hidden inside a lithium battery and was virtually undetectable.

Hezbollah took a massive, humiliating blow. Nasrallah spoke of crossing a red line, while Israel did not officially concede to organizing the action. However, this was only the beginning. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told Israeli soldiers at the time: "We are at the beginning of a new phase of the war - it requires courage, determination and perseverance." - from the current perspective of October 1, it is clear what Gallant meant.

Days that shook Hezbollah

The days following the "pager attack" saw massive attacks by the Israeli air force. More and more bombs were falling on Beirut and its suburbs. On September 20, a large explosion in a Beirut suburb kills Ibrahil Akil – commander-in-chief and the leader of the Redwan forces, as well as Adbul Hassan Samir - head of the group's training cell. Hezbollah tries to respond with rocket attacks of its own, but the IDF's firepower clearly defines which side is on the offensive.

Another three days later, on September 23, Israel calls on residents of southern Lebanon to leave their homes, announcing a massive air strike on civilian buildings that Israeli commanders say serve as weapon depots for Hezbollah. A few hours later, 1,300 bombs fall on the area of southern Lebanon. 558 people are killed in the attack, including many women and children. More than 1,800 are wounded, and one of Hezbollah's leaders, Ali Karaki, is nearly killed in the attack.

It was definitely the bloodiest day in Lebanon in decades. Hezbollah responded by launching 200 missiles to attack northern Israel, but the anti-aircraft defense took most of them. Nonetheless, several fell on Haifa, one of Israel's main cities, for the first time in a year.

On September 24 and 25, the attacks continue. This time Ibrahim Qabisi, the head of Hezbollah's rocket and missile cell, is killed in them. In addition, the Israeli military moves two additional brigades north, announcing that the army must be ready for a ground offensive in Lebanon.

On September 26, the number of casualties in Lebanon already exceeds 700 and tens of thousands are fleeing the places under attack. Lebanese authorities announce that this is the largest displacement action in Lebanon in decades. At a diplomatic forum, the G7 proposes a 21-day ceasefire, but Israel quickly rejects the proposal.

One of the victims of another 200 airstrikes is Hezbollah air force commander, Muhammad Hussein Srour.

On September 27, Netanyahu delivers a fiery speech at the UN General Assembly, declaring that Israel is winning on all fronts. Some delegates walk out of the room, with the Israeli prime minister calling the UN a "swamp of antisemitic bile."

Shortly after Bibi's speech, Israel drops bombs on southern Beirut. Several civilian buildings, which the IDF says were Hezbollah's headquarters, tumble down. A few hours later, already on September 28, Israel states that the attack killed the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah. Moments later, this information is confirmed by Hezbollah itself. What is more, another high-ranking member of the group's leadership is killed in the attack, the one who barely survived 4 days earlier - Ali Karaki.

In total, nine of the eleven members of Hezbollah's top leadership, including the leader, have been killed since early June. Moreover, as many as six of them have died during one week in September. Only Abul Ali Rida, the leader of the Bader branch, has survived. We shouldn’t also forget the deaths of high-ranking IRGC and Hamas representatives - including the assassination of the group's leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31 - during the swearing-in of the new Iranian president. Israel’s actions have also killed a number of mid-level commanders, without whom no army can exist.

Israeli military spokesman, lieutenant colonel Nadav Shoshani, told reporters at a briefing that the military had "real-time" knowledge of the meeting between Nasrallah and other leaders.

Who will be Nasrallah's successor at the time of writing this text is not yet known. One of the main candidates is Nasrallah's cousin, Hashem Safieddine. For the time being, the interim leader of the group is Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem.

On September 30, it was him who delivered a speech in which he announced that the resistance group would deal with any Israeli aggression, that Hezbollah had already appointed successors to the assassinated senior officials, and that it would continue to pursue its goals and follow Nasrallah's path.

"Kill one, and more will come."

Pro-Iranian sources are also trying to downplay Nasrallah's death. The author of an article for the Tehran Times recalls the assassination of Al-Musawi (i.e., Nasrallah's predecessor) and suggests that it had the same (minor) significance for Hezbollah's development, since after the assassination of Al-Musawi, Nasrallah substantially expanded Hezbollah's forces. Generally pro-Iranian media is trying to push the agenda saying that "the group will come out stronger" and the martyrs will be replaced by even more mobilized fighters.

The group's leadership will likely reconstitute itself quickly, opening a career path for new faces, but the group is currently vulnerable to a command crisis, something Israel may want to take advantage of. How? By carrying out a ground invasion.

Despite recent events, the group is still far from being broken up, and this end can be achieved only one way - through a ground war and an IDF’s offensive into southern Lebanon. And indeed, this scenario began to be implemented almost immediately after Nasrallah's death.

The hawkish wing of the Israeli commentariat has long argued that the gains of recent weeks should now be backed up by an Israeli army incursion into the territory of its northern neighbor. The vast majority of Hezbollah fighters are alive, and much of the group's infrastructure is intact. And only the neutralization of these threats, they argue, guarantees the elimination of Hezbollah's ability to attack northern Israel. This was the view of Amir Avivi, a retired IDF general, as well as Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, head of the IDF's Northern Command, who urged Gallant and Halevi to give the green light for an offensive. In the end, Gordin got what he expected.

From the Israeli commanders' point of view, the timing seemed excellent. Hezbollah was expected to lose 20-25% of its rocket arsenal in the bombardment, although upper estimates put it as high as 50%! Prior to the attack on Nasrallah, three Iranian sources told Reuters that Iran was planning to send additional missiles to Hezbollah in preparation for a prolonged war. The weapons to be delivered included short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, including Iran's Zelzal and a precision-guided version known as the Fateh 110. Stopping this process was also one of Tel Aviv's goals.

On the other hand, it should be remembered that if Hezbollah has lost 25% of its offensive rocket force, they still have at least 100,000 rockets and missiles of various types in their hands. What’s more, between 50,000 and 100,000 fighters are expected to join the battle, according to various estimates, although the lower limit is rather closer to the truth.

The interim leader, Qassem, said in his statement: "We are prepared, we are ready. If the enemy enters by land, our soldiers are ready to resist him".

The statement: “We are ready” resounds on the other side of the border as well. Sarit Zehavi, founder of the Alma Research and Education Center, which is located near the border with Lebanon, has recently said "In 2006 we were not ready, now we are."

Chief of Staff general Herzi Halevi stated that the latest airstrikes were aimed at "preparing the ground" for a potential ground troop entry and further weakening Hezbollah.

And indeed, the airstrikes on weapons depots and the group's leadership over the past two weeks can be seen in retrospect as softening the enemy and preparing the ground for a broader ground operation. The military reported last week that Israeli aircraft struck 1,500 targets in just 36 hours. In the first six hours of the air campaign alone, the Israel Defense Forces inflicted more damage on Hezbollah than in 34 days of the 2006 war, said Maj. Doron Spielman, a military spokesman. By contrast, the killing of many top commanders was intended to create a crisis of decision when the ground war broke out.

Magnier, mentioned earlier, believes the IDF's targets now are Hezbollah special units. “If we look at the composition of Hezbollah's forces, it consists mainly of rocket units and special forces. Israel believes it has destroyed most of the rocket units. Now Israel wants to surround the deployed special forces - two units south of the Litani River and one unit north of the Litani River” - Magnier said.

With the ground operation in Lebanon in full swing, it is also important to note the disturbing signals coming from the radical wing of Israeli opinion makers. On September 25, the widely read The Jerusalem Post published an article titled "Is Lebanon part of Israel's promised territory?" in which the author, citing Torah records, ponders the shape of the biblical "Eretz Yisrael" and insists that Lebanon would also be located within the borders of "Greater Israel."

The text, which supports Israel's growing imperial tendencies, shouldn’t be considered a demonstration of convictions shared by the wider portion of the Israeli public, but in view of the impending invasion, it sets a dangerous precedent for justifying the potential annexation of some territories. Perhaps that is why the text was taken down by the newspaper's board after some time.

Taking a step back, it is important to remember and see the whole situation within the framework of the broader dynamics of events in the Middle East, in which the actions of Hezbollah and Hamas are, as it were, instrumentally exploited by Iran, which is seeking to halt Israel's normalizing relations with the Arab Sunni world, symptomatic of which are the Abraham Accords.

Therefore, some analysts believe that the massive damage Israel has inflicted on Hezbollah is an ideal opportunity to forge alliances in the region and achieve stability.

Uri Halperin's article speaks explicitly of an "Israeli-Sunni alliance," led by Saudi Arabia. It would, in short term, ensure the release of kidnapped hostages, the destruction of Hamas' military potential and the return of evacuated Israeli residents to their homes. In return, Israel would allow the establishment of "moderate Sunni governments in the Palestinian, Lebanese and Syrian arenas" (needless to say, without the influence of the Iranian axis of resistance). All this, of course, would reduce Iran's influence in the region. In the same article, the author states that the war in Gaza should be ended and the region should be rebuilt under the conditions of demilitarization and the organization of elections to form an "alternative Palestinian government." The entire process would also involve the United States.

For the time being, such a solution is highly unlikely to happen, but it should be noted that the more moderate Arab media are expressing disappointment with the "Axis of Resistance" concept. In an article for Arab News, the author states that Israel's beheading of Hezbollah symbolizes the end of the myth of Iran's "Axis of Resistance," which was supposed to deter Israel, protect southern Lebanon and be the vanguard of the liberation of Jerusalem and the annihilation of Israel. The author believes that Tehran, with the help of Hezbollah, has positioned Lebanon as a buffer in Israel's line of fire, which has resulted in disastrous consequences for Lebanese citizens. He opines that Hezbollah has done nothing to protect Lebanon and its civilians. As a result, it has highly undermined the credibility of Iran and the entire Axis of Resistance.

Orit Perlov, a social media analyst who monitors Arab social media for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, says there has been a "deluge" of posts from Lebanon celebrating "the fall of Hezbollah." People there want the Lebanese government to take matters into its own hands and declare a unilateral ceasefire. They also demand that the regular Lebanese army occupy the south of the country, where Hezbollah is currently operating, and bring calm to the border.

"The Lebanese don't want Beirut to be destroyed like Gaza and are really afraid of the return of civil war. Nasrallah has already dragged the Lebanese into a war with Israel that they never wanted."

The point of no return, however, has been crossed. Israel smelled blood and decided to “finish things off.” Will the invasion push Iran to enter the war? This is an unlikely option. However, with such an unstable situation, nothing can be ruled out.

Pro-Iranian militias, including Yemen's Houthi, will certainly be active. Israel's attack on Yemen's Hodeida airport and harbor that took place on September 29 suggests that Israel prepared this operation multi-dimensionally.

Now, the war can go in many directions. The optimistic option is the implementation of a limited campaign and the IDF's withdrawal to its own border, although the forces deployed near it suggest that the operation will be much broader and violent. The pessimistic option is a spillover of the conflict to the entire Middle East, which will once again come under fire.

What will it be like? With so many variables, no one knows.

Sources:

Hubert Walas

Founder of Good Times Bad Times, author.

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Israel invades Lebanon

Days that shook Hezbollah

"Kill one, and more will come."

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