- Hubert Walas
Putin's crimes.
Civilian resistance emerges, despite falling bombs. Day 6.
Day 6. Ukraine continues to defend itself bravely, which must surely be considered a success. The country's political leadership is still in office, the capital remains unconquered and the spirit of the people is growing.
The situation near Kyiv continues to be very difficult, with attacks heaviest in the northwest of the city. The offensive has slowed down but is expected to resume. Satellite images show amassing of Russian forces near the Ukrainian capital. On the Kyiv direction, Belarusian troops have entered the battle, according to Ukrainian MoD. Lukashenko is becoming less and less secretive about his regime's real intentions towards Ukraine. Today he presented a map showing the directions of the invasion. Interestingly, the map showed an artificial division of Ukraine into four areas.
According to British intelligence, Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Kherson have still not been captured, but there is much to suggest that all three are surrounded.
That is why replenishments are now so important. With the initial blow having been taken, it is now the logistics that will play a key role in keeping both armies in full combat readiness. Therefore, pictures of new supplies for Ukrainian troops from the west should be considered good news. This photo shows the delivery of Javelin and NLAW kits.
American intelligence says that the reason why the Russian offensive has slowed down is precise because of logistical problems. There are many pictures of the destruction of Russian lines of communication by the Ukrainian military. The Americans also report that Ukraine's air defenses continue to function - Russian domination of the air has still not been achieved. What is more, the Ukrainians are still biting back, with Tochka tactical missiles reported to have attacked the Russian base Taganrog in the Rostov region today.
Interestingly, the Ukrainians report that an attack from the Black Sea on Odessa was supposed to have taken place yesterday, with Russian ships firing the coastline. However, unconfirmed reports say that Russian marines from Crimea refused orders to attack Odessa.
On the sixth day of fighting, Kyiv and Kharkiv were fiercely attacked. As yesterday, civilian objects proved to be targeted. In the morning, images of a rocket attack on Freedom Square in Kharkiv circulated around the world. A Kalibr missile fired from a Russian warship hit the building of the regional administration office. It should be noted that the Kalibr is a precision strike weapon, so it is not a coincidence. In addition, rockets fell on the philharmonic hall and residential areas. Attacks on civilian targets also took place in the country's capital. In Kyiv, one of the targets was a television tower. Five people died as a result of the attack.
These are further evidence of unjustified violations of international legal norms concerning the law of war. Civilians and unprotected civilian objects cannot be targeted.
Since a crime against civilians is being committed before our eyes, at this point it is worth devoting a few sentences to the international humanitarian law of armed conflicts. It is a set of legal norms and principles that parties to a conflict agree to abide by. This law states that only combatants, that is, soldiers, can be the target of an attack during a conflict. A civilian can become the target of an attack only at the moment when he or she takes part in the armed action (or prepares such an attack). Added to this are the principles of humanity and proportionality. They prohibit attacks that can be presumed to cause unintended civilian casualties, injury to civilians, damage to civilian property that is excessive compared to the anticipated military benefit. In addition, the law of war addresses the manner of warfare and prohibits, for example, deception, which is the act of appealing to the good faith of an opponent in order to mislead him.
How does the Russian army apply to all this? The picture speaks for itself.
However, the protests of the unarmed local population against the invasion forces are gaining strength. This is met with surprise by the Russians, who were to be told by their commanders that they would be welcomed as liberators.
And it is the high morale of the citizens that is increasingly becoming the target of the aggressor. The Russians are aware of the enormous determination of the Ukrainians, which can make it difficult for them to achieve their goals of aggression. Therefore, in addition to the typical military targets, it is the civilian population and civilian objects that become victims of the conflict. It seems that breaking the resistance of the Ukrainians will be twofold. On the one hand, there will be attacks on civilian targets, which are intended to intimidate and cause the greatest possible losses among the population and buildings. On the other hand, there will be psychological operations, much feared by the Ukrainian authorities. Their aim will be to create the belief that the political leadership has surrendered or left Kyiv, while at the same time calling on the people to lay down their arms. This is to be achieved by crafted documents and video materials. To achieve this goal, the aggressor will have to disrupt or destroy the telecommunications infrastructure of the defending cities. A silent ally of Kyiv in this regard is Elon Musk - he has delivered to Ukraine the first supply of space Internet receivers - Starlink.
Although the Americans are certainly supporting the Ukrainians with reconnaissance, assistance in tactical operations, and most important weapons, the European Union is finally, also emerging as a key player. Brussels has accepted Ukraine's application as a candidate for the European Union. Before this war is over, the European community may have 28 member states again.
Other moves are also being made. A very striking picture was the exit of 140 diplomats during Sergey Lavrov's speech at the UN Commission on Human Rights in Geneva. Most of them were European officials. In the world of diplomacy, this sends a very strong message of how isolated Russia is on the international stage.
The EU is starting to think outside the box. Brussels officials are considering the idea of offering asylum and refugee status to any Russian soldier who wishes to desert. Something that was recently a joke on Twitter could suddenly become a reality. This is an example of the use of soft power in practice and in wartime. The problem, of course, is the fate of the families of soldiers who would make such an attempt.
There is a lot of ambiguity surrounding the topic of the transfer of fighter planes from the Union to the Ukrainian Air Force. After initial confirmations, a denial followed, but nobody knows what the real situation is. The countries handing over the planes - Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria - are inevitably exposed to retaliation from Russia, and in wartime, this is particularly dangerous. It is, therefore, no coincidence that the planes were to be handed over under the banner of the European Union, as a single bloc. The Union, however, is not a defense-oriented bloc, which is why NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg appeared in Poland today. He officially said that NATO will not hand over planes or send troops to Ukraine because it is not a party to the conflict. He also said that NATO will defend every centimeter or inch of its member's territory, which is why the alliance's eastern flank is being strengthened all the time. By the way - this is another "success" of Putin - unification inside NATO.
The alliance as reported in previous days may expand. Finland will discuss the possibility of joining NATO. Most Finns already support the idea.
There are calls from the Ukrainian side to open a no-fly zone over Ukraine - but these are quickly cut off by the Americans and NATO in general. In practice, this move would mean a declaration of war on Russia and a world war. After a cooler calculation, one can come to the conclusion that such a move might not even be in Kyiv's interest too, because Moscow, seeing the emerging anti-Russian coalition, according to its doctrine could resort to the de-escalatory use of nuclear weapons. And its targets would be no question Ukrainian cities. At a time when the mood is so heated, care must also be taken that the situation does not get out of hand.
Both sides live in their information bubble. Most Russians, even unintentionally, succumb to the propaganda coming from the Kremlin. The opinion polling center WCIOM reports that 68% of those surveyed support the "special operation." Although this is a pro-government center and the results may be inflated, there is no doubt that Russians continue to show mostly indifference to the war. While Denis Volkov, head of the more liberal Levada polling center, admits that "Russians do not understand what is happening in Ukraine."
However, Tuesday brought what appears to be the largest tangible protest yet recorded in Moscow. 950 graduates of the Moscow Institute of International Relations, an elite Russian university that trains the future Russian elite, signed an open letter to Putin condemning the aggression.
Still, "Glubinka," the Russian province whose upheaval the Kremlin fears in particular, remains indifferent and does not directly oppose the war.
By the way, it has come to light how much human life is now valued in Russia. Moscow announced that it would pay 11000 rubles to the families of the soldiers killed in the war. It is about 100$.
Both sides have their own perception bubble. While the West sees the ineptitude of the Russian military, the low morale of the invaders compared to the defenders, and the effects of sanctions that are dragging down the sinking ship of the Russian economy with each passing day, the Kremlin sees the situation quite differently. Although the myth of the elite training of the Russian military, its excellent organization and equipment is certainly falling by the wayside, the sheer weight of that military and its numbers are driving the Russians forward. Therefore, Moscow's goal is to encircle all major cities, most importantly Kyiv, issue ultimatums, and in the event of refusal, renew murderous attacks on civilian targets. Therefore, in this context, as writes analyst Tatiana Stanovaya, the mood in the Kremlin does not look as if Russia is about to lose. Moscow, pursuing its medieval plan to encircle cities and then stifle the resistance of its defenders with lack of food, water, weapons supplies, and artillery attacks, is all the while executing its plan to come out of this war from a position of strength.
However, the Kremlin seems to have overlooked two things. First, even with the 'triumphant scenario of the denazification of Ukraine', a return to normal relations with the West - which the Kremlin assumes sooner or later - is now totally unrealistic. Westerners are furious with Russia and will prefer to haul gas halfway around the world than let the Kremlin regime make money.
Second, and perhaps more importantly, the Ukrainian Army is far from surrendering. On the contrary, new equipment is coming in, morale is rising, and new recruits are being accepted every day. This is not the end - for either side.
