- Hubert Walas
Breaktrough year.
300 days of suffering, fear and pain, but also courage, hope and heroism. Ukraine was supposed to fall in 3 days. It did not fall in 3 days, nor did it fall in 300. In addition, it is regaining territory lost in the first two months of the war. The war of 2022 is not just a kinetic war. For the West, caught up in the last decade in a spiral of often artificially created sociological problems, Ukraine's fight for survival for freedom is a vivid reminder of the values on which Western civilisation was built.
This battle of civilisations is not only taking place on the frontline. In addition to its territorial claims over Ukrainian lands, the Kremlin usurper also claims to be the defender of values it defines as conservative, which sometimes finds support among extreme groups in the West. Meanwhile, the Russian actions of the passing year are an accumulation of all the worst manifestations of human behaviour. The debasement of the individual, the murder of civilians and prisoners of war, mass indoctrination and warmongering are just the beginning of a list of actions from the Russian playbook. Exceeding the threshold of 100,000 dead Russian soldiers is, as Joseph Stalin put it, a mere statistic for the Kremlin. Against this background, the Ukrainian resistance is a breath of fresh air for the Western world in the ideologically chaotic 21st century. Ukraine is paying the highest price for this.
We defeated Russia in the battle for minds of the world. We have no fear, nor should anyone in the world have it. Ukrainians gained this victory, and it gives us courage which inspires the entire world.
The latest symbol of this civilisational battle was the first foreign visit by President Volodymyr Zelensky during the ongoing war - which the Ukrainian paid to Washington. The $45 billion in military and economic aid given to Ukraine by the US since the beginning of the war keeps Kyiv alive and, in the eyes of Ukrainians, makes the United States the main defender of Western civilisation. Zelensky's speech before the US Congress was a form of thanking the Americans and a pragmatic attempt to improve domestic sentiment towards Ukraine.
Dear Americans, in all states, cities and communities, all those who value freedom and justice, who cherish it as strongly as we Ukrainians in our cities, in each and every family, I hope my words of respect and gratitude resonate in each American heart.
However, contrary to appearances, Zelensky did not speak from the position of a victim begging for help. The Ukrainian president represented a nation that, in addition to fighting for its own self-determination, is now fighting for an order whose architect is the North American superpower. A world in which Ukraine, as a resource, is absorbed by the Russian Federation and used in the Russo-Chinese alliance, with the passive attitude of the European Union, does not have to be a world in which the Americans continue to set the rules of the game. There is a group of countries whose future also largely depends on the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war, but to say that, after Ukraine and Russia, it is the United States that has the most to lose in this war is not necessarily an abuse.
This battle is not only for the territory, for this or another part of Europe. The battle is not only for life, freedom and security of Ukrainians or any other nation which Russia attempts to conquer. This struggle will define in what world our children and grandchildren will live, and then their children and grandchildren.
Of course, some argue that the US can go isolationist again and will continue to do well. Which is true. The US economy is one of the most autarkic - meaning: self-sustaining in the world, probably the sole leader in this regard. So yes, the Americans can put their global ambitions in their pockets and focus exclusively on domestic affairs without playing transnational policeman.
It will define whether it will be a democracy of Ukrainians and for Americans — for all. This battle cannot be frozen or postponed. It cannot be ignored, hoping that the ocean or something else will provide a protection.
However, geopolitics hates a vacuum. Although extremely rich in resources, the North American continent represents only a fraction of the potential of the land masses of Eurasia, not to mention Africa, Australia or South America. A state or group of states which, as a result of an American withdrawal, would manage to dominate these areas is capable of threatening not only American global hegemony but in the future, even the seemingly secure, location of the US surrounded by two oceans. We are, of course, not talking about a perspective of a few years but of at least several decades. Based on this worrying prospect, the US, doctrinally, does not allow the emergence of a player in Eurasia that could realise this vision. The Russian-Chinese tandem has a natural tendency to do so. Although the bear possesses a fraction of the dragon's potential, disabling the bear naturally weakens the dragon as well.
Our two nations are allies in this battle. And next year will be a turning point, I know it, the point when Ukrainian courage and American resolve must guarantee the future of our common freedom, the freedom of people who stand for their values.
That said, it should come as no surprise that Washington responded to Zelensky's speech with another aid package. This is, therefore, not charity but building the foundations for a better tomorrow for generations to come. This time, the Americans groundbreakingly declared the transfer of the Patriot air defence system. This is singularly the most expensive and advanced Western system that Ukraine will get during this war. Interestingly, probably the main motivation for their handover is the growing threat of ballistic missiles handed over by another actor of the autocratic civilisation - the Islamic Republic of Iran. By contrast, the third and largest representative of the bloc, the People's Republic of China, is increasingly frustrated by the Russian-induced war. Beijing indirectly urges Moscow to settle the matter. "It is not in anyone's interest to drag out the crisis in Ukraine," - Xi Jinping stated recently. Although subtle, the signals coming from the Middle Kingdom are essential to Russia. Moscow does not admit it; nevertheless, China is becoming a full-fledged patron of Russia, which means the subordination of state interests to an external player to the extent that a change in the patron's policy means the collapse of the policy of its subordinate. With Moscow's alienation on the international stage, China now holds the keys to the Russian state. This, by the way, is rather amusing, as the Kremlin systematically mocks Ukraine or even the European Union by claiming that these are not independent and are subordinate to Washington. No less so is such an arrangement now in place on the Moscow-Beijing axis, but this dependency will only grow with time. The Soviets, in their heyday, used to go to Communist China with superiority to teach the Chinese totalitarian state management. Now the situation is reversed, and the sons or grandsons of Soviet dignitaries travel to seek support and favour in Beijing.
At the geographical borders of the two civilisations, balancing acts take place and attempts to take advantage of the evolving international situation. This is where Turkey comes to the fore. Ankara has played two games since the beginning of the Russian invasion. In one, it took on the role of avid defender of Ukrainian independence, aided by the Bayrkatar TB-2 drone hype, the grain deal and the blockade of the Turkish straits for Russian warships. However, once Ankara realised that Ukraine would not fall and that the Turkish position in the Black Sea basin would not be dominated by the Russians, then the Turks increasingly looked for ways to capitalise on a situation where both NATO and Russia wanted something from Turkey. Ankara's veto on NATO membership of Sweden and Finland, de facto, is still not lifted, as Turkey expects a non-financial payment for the green light. Just as the Turkish coast, as in the case of Roman Abramovich, has become a safe harbour for Russian oligarchs’ yachts, Turkey, in general has become a safe harbour for Russian money. Russian gas and oil are flowing into Turkey in an ever-widening stream. Turkish exports to Russia have skyrocketed, so much so that Ankara has overtaken Berlin to become the second largest exporter to Russia after China. Turkey is the only member of the North Atlantic Alliance that has not imposed sanctions on Russia. Russians are setting up businesses in Turkey en masse - 500 in the first six months of the year alone, twice as many as in the entire previous year. Russian tourists, meanwhile, are the backbone of Turkish tourism. In a nutshell, Ankara is providing many arguments to the effect that, after China, Turkey is Russia's most important partner in the difficult year 2022, distancing even Iran. Such Turkish behaviour invariably causes irritation in Washington, which warns Ankara against helping Russia to circumvent sanctions. Time will tell whether short-term gains will cast a shadow over Turkey's long-term interests.
To a lesser extent, but still, Turkey's neighbour and local rival, Greece, also plays an important role in Russian survival. Specifically, the Greek shipping magnates, who account for the majority of Russian oil transported by ocean. The share of Greek shipowners was already sizable before the war, at 34%, but after the invasion, it increased even more, exceeding 50% and in some months, even 60%. Athens also wants to use its trump card in the form of post-Soviet equipment. The Greeks are offering their S-300, Tor-M1, or OSA systems in exchange for US systems - preferably Patriot. In a similar deal, the Greeks handed over 40 BMP-1 vehicles to Ukraine, in return for which they received German Marder vehicles.
However, it is not Greece, Turkey or even the United States that is the largest donor of military equipment to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is the Russian Federation. This number is still growing, but we are talking about nearly 400 tanks, nearly 700 armoured vehicles, or more than 150 artillery systems. Volodymyr Dacenko, a Ukrainian analyst, has prepared an interesting graphical summary of the 'military balance of power' between Ukraine and Russia based on publicly available data. In almost every aspect, Russia still has a big advantage. The exceptions are infantry, where both sides are expected to have a similar number of soldiers, and long-range artillery, where, thanks to supplies from the West, Ukraine has the advantage. This is the result of supplies of Polish Krab, German Panzerhaubitze, or French Ceasars. Ukraine now rightly dominates the 20-80km range.
What is positive for the Ukrainians, however, is that previously these disproportions were much greater. The gap between the two armies is narrowing, and the dynamics of the 'military balance of power' are trending in Kyiv's favour. For example, at the start of the war, the Russians had a fourfold advantage in tanks; now, they are to have "only" 50% more of them. Dacenko adds that such heavy losses affect the tactics of both sides. In the beginning, the Russians mainly made raids using heavy-armoured vehicles, now, attacks are mainly made by infantry. Ukraine, conversely, is now using much more heavy equipment for its attacks.
The year 2023 is supposed to be the year of the end of the war - that is the hope of everyone, regardless of which side of the barricades they are on. These hopes, depending on the barricade, differ, of course, in the final outcome. It seems that the first serious attempt to end the war will be made as early as February - on the first anniversary of the war outbreak - and is expected to be made by Kyiv. Zelenski is anticipated to present a vision for peace and a new international security system at the UN during the 'Peace Summit'. The whole thing is based on the 10 points for ending the war, which the Ukrainians presented in November. For the time being, Moscow is rejecting Kyiv's conditions and, with the current balance of power, is likely to reject them in February as well. Will Ukraine be able to improve the situation on the front enough in the next two months to regain peace on its terms as early as February? There are few signs of such an imminent settlement, but hope pushes the Ukrainians forward.
Hubert Walas
