- Hubert Walas
791 days - that's how long Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been going on. An invasion that Russian planners thought would be a formality and last 15 days. However, the formality was not to be, and the latest news - despite the Russians regaining the initiative - shows that the ‘war counter’ will not stop soon, while Ukraine will receive a massive injection of support.
On April 24, 2024, Joe Biden signed a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine. This ended a months-long saga in which the House of Representatives, specifically its Speaker Mike Johnson, held up a vote on another aid package, thus putting the continued defence of Ukrainian independence in doubt.
After more than two years of war in which the Russian side has taken the initiative, this is one of the brightest moments for Ukraine's supporters. The news has provoked barely concealed anger in the Kremlin - and this should come as no surprise since the package is worth ⅔ of the Russian Federation's annual defence budget.
What does the package mean for both sides, and how can this information be read from the perspective of the front line and global superpower clash?
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The good side of history
This decision "will make the United States of America richer, further ruin Ukraine and result in the deaths of even more Ukrainians, the fault of the Kyiv regime" said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, commenting on the aid package flowing from Washington to Kyiv. Dmitry Medvedev, for his part, took the opportunity to wish the Americans "to plunge into civil war as soon as possible”.
The American president signed the package itself on April 24, the day after it was voted on in the Democrate-controlled Senate. Recall, however, that these two instances were not the problem in the more than six-month battle to push through another aid package.
The bottleneck was the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. Many on the right wing of American politics opposed the next package, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, who delayed a vote on the package. Republicans, especially from the Trumpist faction, tied the Ukraine issue to domestic politics, including the issue of the country's southern border. In April, however, Johnson changed his mind and put the proposal to a vote, which passed 311-112. Democratic congressmen were in favor, but the vote split was more interesting on the Republican side.
101 Republican congressmen voted 'yes' and 112 voted 'no' - showing an almost even split in the right-wing camp. Even more interestingly, Donald Trump spoke approvingly of Johnson's decision, stating that "Ukraine's survival is important to the United States”.
The question arises: What changed Johnson, Trump, and parts of the Republican Party's minds?
There are several theories. The first is access to top-secret briefings attended by Johnson. As a member of the "Gang of Eight," a group of eight congressional leaders, the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives has access to top-level intelligence.
"I really do believe the intel and the briefings that we’ve gotten [...] I believe that Xi [Jinping] and Vladimir Putin and Iran really are an axis of evil.”. - Johnson said recently.
The speaker also spoke with CIA chief William Burns, who has warned more than once that if Ukraine does not get a new package from the U.S., it could lose later this year.
The reasons for Johnson's sudden change of attitude may also have been strictly personal - "I want be on the good side of history," Johnson is reported to have told Michael McCaul, Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman. Johnson, commenting on the unblocking of aid, also said that he would "rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. - also referring to his son, who is entering the US Naval Academy.
But the decision may also have been a purely pragmatic political ploy. The presidential elections are fast approaching, and it may have been assessed that prolonging the standoff would work against Trump's ratings in the long run - especially among undecideds.
ATACAMS in Ukraine
Whatever the motives, the news was received with great relief in Kyiv.
"I am grateful to all of our friends in the United States, as well as our partners around the world, who see common opportunities and tasks in the same way that we do in Ukraine." - said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in response to the news from the United States.
At the same time, he called for a maximum reduction of the time needed for the physical transfer of approved aid to Ukraine.
"The time between political decisions and actual damage to the enemy on the front lines, between the package's approval and our warriors' strengthening, must be as short as possible." he said.
Indeed, moments after Joe Biden signed the directive, the U.S. government announced a new $1 billion aid package. According to a press release, 56 such aid packages were issued from August 2021 to the present day.
According to the information, Ukraine will receive, among other things: air defense missiles RIM-7 and AIM9M, Stinger missiles, HIMARS ammunition, 155mm artillery shells, Bradley fighting vehicles, MRAP vehicles, HMMWVs, logistic support vehicles, anti-tank missiles, Javelin and AT-4 launchers.
The ammunition for the HIMARS artillery launcher may include ATACAMS missiles, which the Americans also appear to have quietly delivered to Ukraine in March of this year as part of an earlier $300 million package.
And just over a week ago, ATACAMS claimed its first victim. Ukrainian ATACAMS fired on the Russian base of Dzhankoy in Crimea on April 17. More than 100 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in the attack on a base that is located 165 kilometres (100 miles) from the front line. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, during a briefing, confirmed that a "significant number" of missiles had been sent to Ukraine, adding that "we will send more." Recall that their range is set at 300 kilometers, or 185 miles, and the precision of the strike is counted in meters.
Politico also reports that along with the aid, the Americans are also considering sending 60 military advisers. They would help implement the aid but would not serve on the front lines.
The news from across the ocean was echoed by the British. On April 23, during a visit to Warsaw, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the largest military aid package to Ukraine to date, worth £500 million. It will include 400 vehicles, including 160 Huskys, 162 other armored vehicles, 78 all-terrain vehicles, 60 ships and 1,600 missiles, including Storm Shadow missiles.
"Defending Ukraine against Russia’s brutal ambitions is vital for our security and for all of Europe. If Putin is allowed to succeed in this war of aggression, he will not stop at the Polish border." Sunak said.
Add to this the so-called "Czech initiative" - which, according to the Czech prime minister, is expected to guarantee no less than 1.5 million artillery shells for Ukraine later this year. Recall that the Czechs are brokering the supply of 155mm calibre projectiles to Ukraine from "supplier countries" that have chosen to remain anonymous - most likely including Russia's informal allies within the BRICS+ group, i.e. India and South Africa.
So far, half a million missiles have been secured, financed by the countries of the European Union and Canada. Let's not forget that less groundbreaking but also important aid packages are being announced by individual European countries, as we reported a month ago:
“Bundestag has passed a bill authorising the transfer of €7.6 billion in military aid later this year. France intends to spend up to €3 billion and the Netherlands €2 billion over the same period.
The UK had previously done the same, announcing a package worth €2.9 billion. This brings the total pledged military aid from the British, French, Germans and Dutch alone to €15.5 billion.
But smaller states are no less active. In February alone, military aid from the Scandinavian countries amounted to some $1.4 billion. Finland pledged around USD 206 million, Denmark's package was worth USD 247 million, Norway donated equipment worth USD 325 million and Sweden USD 682 million.”
Nevertheless, after the U.S. package was passed, some U.S. opinion-makers returned to the argument that Europe was not adequately funding the Ukrainian war effort, in contrast to the US. To counter this argument, Celeste A. Wallander, the Pentagon's top official for Ukraine and Russia policy, told the NYT that of the $60 billion, $48 will de facto go to U.S. defense contractors in 40 different American states.
In addition, Brussels delegates in Washington, responding to this accusation, have prepared their own breakdown of aid to Ukraine, according to which the EU and individual EU states have so far provided $106 billion in financial, military, humanitarian and refugee aid. This amount does not include the additional $54 billion pledged on February 1, 2024, which has long been blocked in Europe by Viktor Orban and Hungary.
Yet, leaving aside the natural frictions within the "pro-Ukrainian camp," one cannot help but notice the renewed intensification of funds being poured into stopping Russian imperialism in Ukraine. The Europeans are trying to emerge from years of paralysis, that’s why for immediate effects, the attitude of the world's largest military power - the United States of America - remains absolutely crucial. Thus, minutes after Joe Biden signed the decree, began the process of immediate transfer of necessary military equipment to Ukraine directly from the US Army stockpiles - as guaranteed by the PDA formula. Europe simply does not have such capabilities for now, and it will take many months or years to achieve them.
Stopping the Russian hydra
The accumulation of Western equipment transfers to Ukraine comes after months of growing superiority on the Russian side, which culminated in February when Russian soldiers seized Avdiivka, a Ukrainian fortress that has been de facto defended since 2015. Now the Kremlin's troops are advancing on Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut - an important hilltop town that could open the door for the Russians to advance on key urban centres - such as Kostiantynivka or, most importantly, Kramatorsk, where the regional command centre of the Ukrainian armed forces is located. The towns of Novobakhmutivka and Ocheretyne in the suburbs of Donetsk are also taken or close to being seized.
In a recent statement, Sergei Shoigu listed three locations where the Russians are advancing and, in his opinion, have already taken: Bohdanivka, northeast of Chasiv Yar; Pervomaiskie, southwest of Avdiivka; and Novomykhalivka, southwest of Donetsk.
However, according to the Institute for the Study of War, there is still no visual evidence for these developments.
Nevertheless, there is no doubt that the Ukrainians are waiting with great impatience for "Western guns and ammo". The Russian advantage has not yet resulted in the collapse of the front line (not counting Avdiivka). The Ukrainians are holding it, but in the long run it would be increasingly difficult, if not impossible.
In addition, Kyiv recently passed a mobilisation law that lowers the age of conscription from 27 to 25 and is expected to provide a larger pool of available soldiers for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Two weeks later, Kyiv passed another law requiring all men between the ages of 18 and 60 to register with the Ukrainian army and carry registration documents with them at all times. The aim is to streamline recruitment processes and make them more transparent, the government says.
Working-age men living abroad will not be able to renew their passports at Ukrainian consulates without current registration documents. The project will inevitably make it harder to avoid military service for those who do so today.
So - the $50 billion from Europe in February, the $60 billion from the Americans in April, and the aforementioned mobilisation bills are expected to give the Ukrainian military a much-needed breather or even the hope of regaining the initiative.
However, this good news should not be expected to change the situation on the front immediately. The first step will be to stabilise it.
"The U.S. aid package will help Ukraine stabilise the front. Concerns about a Ukrainian collapse or Russian breakthrough will be eased" - said Mark Cancian, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Only in the second or third step, in a several months - after the number of soldiers has been increased, they have been trained, and new equipment has been introduced - will it be possible to think about possible offensive actions on a larger scale.
In addition, the Ukrainians are hoping for long-awaited support for Ukraine's air defences, which cannot withstand Russian saturation attacks on Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure, to which Kyiv's largest power plant recently fell victim.
It should also be noted that further Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries did not prevent the American vote on the new aid package. Some time ago, Washington expressed its disapproval of Ukrainian attacks on oil processing targets deep inside Russia. Meanwhile, as the U.S. Senate was voting on the bill, more Ukrainian drones rained down on Russian fuel storage facilities at Razdorovo in the Smolensk region.
As Bloomberg reports, the 14 Ukrainian attacks were expected to reduce exports of Russian petroleum products by ⅓. Production, meanwhile, was expected to fall to its lowest level in 11 months.
In defense of Pax Americana
But getting back to the US bill, it should be noted that in addition to a massive boost for Ukraine, it contains several other very important provisions.
The bill also contains recommendations for the so-called REPO Act, which authorizes President Biden to confiscate frozen Russian assets currently held in US banks. Granted, most of Russia's $300 billion in frozen assets are in Europe. "Only" $6 billion is in the United States. However, while this $6 billion will not change the fate of Ukraine, although it will certainly help with possible reconstruction, what is more significant is the phenomenon of the precedent that the Americans may set with their confiscation. In other words, the Americans, specifically the Joe Biden administration, may be making a move that will set off a domino effect and an eventual full confiscation of then "post-Russian" funds.
At stake, of course, is the reputation - first of all, of the institutions and countries that will carry out the confiscation. They fear repercussions in the form of capital outflows from, let's call it - "non-Western" directions. Second, the reputation of the dollar itself, whose position as a reserve currency is affected by such moves. If the Americans, by confiscating Russian money, decide that it does not matter much for the dollar's hegemony, they may start the formation of a snowball, which in the end will get Ukraine as the ultimate beneficiary of these funds. They would be paid in the form of reparations because there is no illusion that Kyiv will receive any from Moscow. That would require a complete defeat of Russia - and that simply does not look like happening today.
In addition, the legislation calls on the administration to transfer the ATACAMS missiles "as soon as possible," although, as we now know, the ATACAMS are already in Ukraine.
The remaining part of the $95 billion package, that is $34 billion, is earmarked for Israel, Gaza, and Taiwan.
Of this amount, more than $5 billion will be used to supplement Israel's missile defense systems, including Iron Dome. Nearly $8 billion for other systems and weapons provided by the U.S. to Israel under the Foreign Military Financing program. More than $9 billion for humanitarian aid in Gaza.
While $8 billion for Taiwan is designated to "counter China”. Out of it, more than $3 billion will go to improve submarine infrastructure. Let’s recall - a niche in which the US Navy has a significant advantage over PLA Navy. Another $2 billion will be spent on replenishing US weapons in Taiwan.
Finally, the bill includes the so-called "TikTok ban" - forcing the Chinese company ByteDance to sell TikTok in the US. ByteDance has nine months to sell the app, or be banned.
The unblocking of U.S. aid to Ukraine, continued support for Israel, and striking at select elements of Chinese power projection - whether kinetic in Taiwan or soft power through Tiktok.
After a recent rise in isolationist narratives, the Americans are sidelining them with a new law.
This is not a revolutionary act, but rather a move calculated to maintain the order of American primacy in the world according to defined US national interests. This also evidenced by the very broad spectrum that the new package covers - from Ukraine to Russian assets, the Israeli-Arab war, Taiwan, ending with China's TikTok.
In this context, it is also interesting to note Donald Trump's attitude, which shows moderate approval of this move by the House of Representatives. This fact may support the views of this side of the commentariat, which believes that Trump's election will not at all prejudge the American turn to isolationism, abandonment of Ukraine and dismemberment of NATO, but rather that the Trump game is primarily calculated for domestic use and winning elections, and that foreign policy does not need to undergo a complete recalibration.
Regardless of opinions, the new aid package is undoubtedly the best news for Ukrainians this year. It won't win Ukraine the war, but it will help not lose it. This, coupled with the steady pattern of assertiveness in European defence policy and the necessary greater mobilisation within Ukraine itself - after months of pessimism, makes it possible to look with greater optimism at the prospects for repulsing Russian imperialism.
At the same time, it is another wedge for the increasingly confident Kremlin establishment, heralding imminent progress after months of malaise. Meanwhile, the multibillion-dollar transfers from the U.S. and Europe foreshadow many months of high-intensity, high-quality resistance from Ukraine or even a straight-out offensive. And that, in turn, means many more months of trouble for the Kremlin and the Russian Federation in general.
So it's unsurprising that all of Vladimir Putin's top hounds have started barking again. Loudly.
