- Hubert Walas
Volodymyr Zelensky assesses that this fall will be a crucial period for the direction of the war. As the Russians took Ukrainsk and are on the verge of breaking the Vuhledar stronghold, the Ukrainian president flies on a visit to the only place in the world whose residents have a chance to reverse Kyiv's negative trend - Washington.
The "plan for victory" that Zelensky has presented to the top US establishment is supposed to give Ukraine strength, change the fate of this war, and allow Biden himself to "make history" for the last time. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are targeting huge Russian ammunition depots, literally causing a local earthquake.
Will Zelensky's operation have the desired effect? What is the situation on the front lines? Until when will Russia have the resources to continue this war? This and more on today's episode. On the Map.
Kursk Direction:
For the past month, the Ukrainians have maintained a bridgehead at Kursk on the side of the Russian Federation. However, its scope was limited by Russian counterattacks, which were most effective on the western side of the breakthrough.
The Russians regained control over the villages of Snagost and Vikotorovka, and according to the aggressor's side, they are already approaching the villages of Lyubimovka and Sverdlikovo. On the other side of the breach, the Russians managed to regain control over the village of Borki.
However, it should be noted that the Ukrainians opened new flanking breakout directions to the west of the main incursion. We're talking about the Glushkovo forest, where the Russians are trying to neutralize the extent of the Ukrainian incursion.
Ukrainian forces managed to break through Russian defenses several kilometers deep, but were stopped by Russian reserves near the village of Veseloye. In addition, the ISW confirmed the AFU incursion 10 kilometers further to the west, near the village of Popovo-Lezachi and directly at the level of Rylsk.
Kharkiv Direction:
The latest news is that the Russians are expected to go on the defensive in the Kharkiv region, which may be due to the transfer of some forces to repel the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk. However, this does not translate into territorial changes in the area for the time being.
Ukrainian officer Volodymyr Cherniak said that the Ukrainians are not in a position to launch a counteroffensive in the Vovchansk area, as the Russians continue to have a manpower and equipment advantage. However, he noted that the situation is slowly but steadily turning in favor of the Ukrainian defenders, although it is too early to talk about significant successes.
Luhansk Direction:
On the main front line, the Luhansk direction has seen positive developments from the Russian point of view. They remain the offensive side, which is reflected in gains on selected sections. At the level of Synkivka, they are advancing towards Kupiansk, but without any significant success so far.
However, the same cannot be said about the push towards Pischane, where the Kremlin forces have advanced about 5 kilometers to the west. That's also how far they are from the Oskil River and the village of Senkove. We can also speak of Russian improvements on the Stelmakhivka, Pershotravneve, Sverdlovka, Pereizne and Zaliznianske axes.
Moving south, the situation on the Chasiv-Yar axis has not changed significantly, unlike Klishchiivka, which is now fully under the control of the Russian Federation.
Overall, the situation in the Luhansk region is difficult from the Ukrainian point of view, although not as bad as in the Donetsk region.
Donetsk Direction:
Over the past 30 days, the Russians have continued their offensive throughout the region, clearly giving this area the highest priority of all the frontline directions.
The Russians have entered Toretsk, moving along the main road into the city from the east. Niu-York is also almost fully occupied, and next on the road is the town of Nelipivka.
On a positive note for the Ukrainian forces, the Russian advance towards the H-32 road and Pokrovsk itself has halted over the past month. However, compared to our last report, they have pushed the Ukrainians back in a very significant way to the south of this area, primarily capturing the town of Ukriansk, with a pre-war population of 10,000, twice the size of Sudzha, which was taken by the Ukrainians in Kursk. The settlements of Halystsynivka and Kralivka fell as well. The Russians are now not far from the settlements of Hirnyk and Kurakhivka.
The Russians have effectively bypassed the town of Selydove from the east and are attacking Kurakhove from several directions. The town is the main logistical hub of the Ukrainian armed forces in southern Donbas.
The losses did not stop there. The 15,000-strong town of Krasnohorivka also fell in September, and the famous Vuhledar, a town of the same size, is also on the verge of collapse. Vuhledar has bravely defended for nearly three years, but is now on the verge of collapse, surrounded on two sides.
Analyst Emil Kastehelmi says that although Vuhledar has survived much in this war, the battle for the city is coming, and the overall situation is not optimistic.
"The terrain in the area is flat, so there are no decisive natural obstacles which could help the defenders. The main supply road is on FPV range. A counterattack could solve the situation, but it is very unlikely to happen, as the Ukrainians are already stretched thin." - assessed the Finnish analyst.
"I predict that we will lose it within a few days, or maybe even sooner," - Ukrainian Colonel Vladyslav Seleznyov told Kyiv Post newspaper.
The 72nd Brigade, which has been defending Vuhledar for more than two years, is severely depleted, Seleznyov said, and it remains uncertain whether the AFU General Staff has the resources to continue defending the city as Ukrainian forces are stretched across the entire front line.
With the fall of Ukrainsk and the expected fall of Kurakhivka and Vuhledar, Kurakhove will be vulnerable to attack from all sides, with the caveat that it will be protected from the north by the reservoir located there.
The rest of the front remains essentially frozen.
An uncertain future
Thus, Ukraine remains in a very difficult situation, and the Kursk outbreak, although it brought temporary improvements in some domains, expectedly did not translate into the strategic level. The Russians, somewhat, "neglected the loss", postponing the solution of the problem, while continuing their plan to conquer Donbas.
That is why, among others, Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on his social media that this fall will “determine the future of this war". Zelensky said these words while on board a plane to the United States, where he was flying with the intention of presenting a four-point "victory plan" to the American leadership. Interestingly, the presentation was not only intended for Joe Biden and the highest members of the US Congress. It was also addressed to the candidates for the highest office in the United States - Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Speaking of "determining the future of this war," Zelensky has in mind the two most important, general variables currently determining the course of this war - first, the offensive posture of the Russian Federation, which translates into steady frontal gains. On the other hand, the U.S. factor, which is perhaps the only one that can quickly and significantly reverse the trend. Add to this the current election campaign in the United States, which is being closely followed in Ukraine, and the result itself.
Donald Trump's media campaign rhetoric is much less favorable to Ukraine than the line of his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris. Trump officially calls Zelensky a "top salesman," and his interjections that he would "lift sanctions on Russia" and "end the war in 24 hours" are circulating in media headlines around the world.
Zelensky, however, given the importance of relations with the US and Trump's chances of triumph, does not antagonise the Republican candidate. During an interview with CNN, Zelensky said he had a successful conversation with Donald Trump two months ago, and contrary to campaign statements, Trump was said to have described his position as very "supportive" of the Ukrainian war effort. The Ukrainian president also did not comment on the issue of Trump's plan to end the war because, as he assessed, he "does not know its details."
The fact is that it is uncertain how much of Trump's declarations are media theatre and how much are a "real threat" to Kyiv. Even an American president, despite the power he wields, must ultimately implement the American raison d'etre, which goes far beyond the leader's personal views. That said, Kamala Harris is a much safer choice from Kyiv's perspective.
However, aid at the current level provided by the Democratic administration is proving to be insufficient, and therefore Zelensky with his visit wants to influence the actions of the ruling option as well, which hoping for a biggest domestic support, may offer new avenues of support for Kyiv - at least that is what Ukrainians hope.
Especially since support for Ukraine among the American public remains quite high. Let's take a look at a recent YouGov poll. More than half of American adults (53%) believe that support for Ukraine should be maintained at current levels or even increased. Only 28% think it should be reduced.
If we look at the breakdown by party affiliation, the pro-Ukraine stance is definitely more pronounced on the Democratic side of the electorate, but even among Republicans these proportions are not as bad as they seem. 40% of them think that support for Ukraine should be maintained at the current level or increased. 44% think it should be decreased, which gives almost equal proportion.
The Kursk offensive also brought about the first change in the perception of the current stage of the war among Americans since the beginning of the year, as it was the first time that a larger proportion of respondents said that Kyiv, not Moscow, was winning the war. In this context, the Kursk action certainly helped the Democrats' ratings.
Zelensky, however, still reminds of the dire domestic situation of Ukraine. In the aforementioned interview with Fareed Zakaria, he reminds that the Russians have destroyed 80% of Ukraine's power grid with guided bombs, and that Russia is said to have a 12-to-1 advantage in artillery shells.
The Ukrainian president said that from the package pushed through the U.S. Congress, Kyiv wanted to arm 14 brigades, but due to the fact that aid is flowing very slowly, they have not been able to arm "even 4".
On the positive side, the Americans are gradually increasing their own production capacity for artillery shells. The Americans goal is to produce 100,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition per month. That is why the Ukrainian delegation visited the city of Scranton, Pennsylvania (interestingly, the birthplace of Joe Biden), where the artillery ammunition plant is located. The plant has announced a 50% increase in production to 36,000 rounds per month. All production is destined for Ukraine.
Significantly, the Ukrainians still have not received permission from the Americans to strike deep into the Russian interior. Meanwhile, September's AFU attacks on Russian arms depots have shown just how decisive the consequences of this decision can be. Last week, Ukraine hit three Russian ammunition depots in four days.
This video shows the explosion of the 719 ammunition depot base in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar region. User @oko_gora later estimated that 96% of the base was destroyed or damaged in the attack.
On the same day, the 23rd Arsenal of the Main Rocket and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) exploded near the town of Oktyabrsk in the Tver region. Interestingly, three days earlier, Ukrainian drones had reached a similar facility just 16 kilometres north of this base. The victim was a 107th arsenal in the village of Toropets. The explosion was even said to have caused a minor earthquake.
In the case of the Oktyabrsk depot, about 75% of the stockpile was supposed to be destroyed, while the 107th arsenal near Toropets was 90% destroyed. The British Ministry of Defense estimates that Toropiets was one of the most important ammunition depots in Russia. Renovated in 2018, it directly supported Moscow's operations in Ukraine. In contrast, Kyiv's communiqué said the same about the Tikhoretsk depot, describing it as one of the three largest in Russia.
Some analysts estimate that the total destroyed potential would allow for three months of military operations. Estimates range as high as 25% of annual domestic production and North Korea's supplies.
Putting a price tag value on this attack is probably impossible, but what is possible is to note Moscow's continued investment in the war.
As Bloomberg reports, Moscow is once again increasing its arms spending. It is expected to reach $140 billion by 2025, more than 6% of GDP and a whopping 40% of the national budget. The money will be shifted from social spending, i.e. taken from the citizens.
The move should not come as a surprise if we keep in mind that Ukraine is not the only party suffering in this war. Russia, because of its potential, looks better at this stage of the war, but internally the war is costing the Kremlin a lot, and every additional month of hostilities worsens the internal situation of the Russian Federation in many domains.
More than once in this channel, we have upheld the view that Moscow can hold on to this war for a certain period of time, and inevitably with each month, it has less of it.
As part of a commentary given to the Interfax agency, the head of the Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, gave his view on this issue. He stated that Russia is aiming for an end to the war by the turn of 2025 and 2026 at the latest, because after that time "it will begin to have serious economic problems and mobilization will be necessary, which could undermine the social balance".
Failure to bring the war to a positive end, on the other hand, will be tantamount to losing the superpower status they aspire to, he said. The Ukrainian general estimates that the information collected by his intelligence service shows that in a year and a half all the accumulating problems of the Russian Federation will reach a critical point, and this consists of economic, demographic (including the possible need for another mobilization), military, as well as psychological aspects resulting from the increasingly strong presence of the war on the territory of the aggressor state.
"They are clearly aware of this. This is a crucial time for them. Therefore, they will do everything in their power to win in their understanding. Otherwise, they will be fired from absolutely all world processes. The only thing they can count on is regional leadership, but they don't like it," Budanov concluded.
In this context, Moscow's decision to increase its military spending to 40 percent of the budget is a logical step from its point of view. Whether it will prove sufficient is too early to tell.
Certainly, the support of Russia's main ally, the People's Republic of China, will remain crucial.
China’s helping hand
Journalists have recently noted the appearance of Chinese armored vehicles on the front lines for the first time in this war. The vehicle in question is the ZFB-05, which appeared in pictures on one of Russia's Telegram channels. Eight of these armored vehicles were seen in the service of the Chechen Akhmat Special Rapid Response Unit, which is part of the Russian Guard.
Beijing denies that these vehicles have been delivered, suggesting that they may have entered Russia through intermediaries in Africa, for example.
While such an explanation may or may not be true, after more than two and a half years of war, there are no illusions today that Beijing is actively supporting the Russian war effort and thus its plan to conquer Ukraine, even if the official Chinese narrative seeks to export its neutral position to the world.
On September 24, Ukrainian presidential adviser Vladyslav Vlasiuk told Reuters: "I would say China is the biggest problem." Why?
Because the Ukrainians, based on their own observations, estimate that as much as 60% of foreign components in Russian weapons pass through China.
"If you take all the usual types of weapons and count the foreign made components – about 60% would be coming from China. We have had lengthy discussions with some manufacturers about this" - said Vlasiuk.
China's critical position for Russia's military sector is complemented by an equally critical impact on the Kremlin's other pillar - economic stability. Chinese exports to Russia (directly and via Central Asia) have tripled in value since the beginning of the war! In total, there is even talk of a jump from $6 billion a month to nearly $18 billion.
The nuclear card
Faced with the uncertainty of supplies from abroad and the claimed support for "as long as it takes", and to improve negotiating position vis-a-vis both the Western and Russian directions, the Ukrainians periodically remind the world about their "nuclear card". This one, although deeply hidden, is to remain within Kyiv's reach. Now Oleg Rybachuk, former deputy prime minister for European integration, has stepped into the role of reminder. In an interview with Espresso TV, he said:
"If Ukraine is left with no choice, and as a result of Russian aggression we will find that the West and NATO will indeed be unable to fulfill their obligations, we will increase the production of our own weapons. And most likely, technically and realistically, we can start producing our own nuclear weapons."
How realistic this prospect is, is difficult to determine, but the fact is that it is one of the few viable "bogeymen" that Kyiv can actually use vis-a-vis Washington. The Americans are certainly not interested in a wider proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the world. On the other hand, they don't like being blackmailed either.
Volodymyr Zelensky, who presented his "victory plan" to Joe Biden (we don't know its details at the time of writing) on Thursday, wants to give the 81-year-old a chance to "make history" one last time.
The plan certainly includes increased military and financial aid, as well as possible security guarantees for Ukraine. Achieving this just a month before elections and in the final months of Biden's presidency will be extremely difficult. However, if Zelensky comes back with a green light to strike deep into the aggressor's heartland, this fact alone could be considered a success for the US Zelensky campaign.
However, if even that is missing, the Ukrainian president will not return completely empty-handed, as Joe Biden announced an additional $8 billion aid plan for Ukraine during his visit. The aid includes the first delivery of an AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapon glide bomb with a range of up to 81 miles (130 km) to be launched from Ukrainian F16s. The Americans have also announced the training of another 18 F-16 pilots. Furthermore, the aid includes HIMARS ammunition, 155mm artillery ammunition, M1117 and MRAP vehicles, and Javelin or AT-4s launchers, among other things.
Still, this is more of an ad hoc solution than a comprehensive vision for victory. That vision, or lack thereof, will soon be part of the leadership of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.
Sources:
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