- Hubert Walas
The summer heat of the Ukrainian steppes is taking its toll on both defenders and attackers. The front has split into two, with the Russians gaining momentum in the north and the Ukrainians trying to break through in the south. Meanwhile, concrete statements have been made about the transfer of F16s to the Ukrainian armed forces.
Kharkiv Oblast Direction
The situation in the northern part of the region remains unclear. It is likely that the Russians have made some progress. Earlier, Russian units continued to attack towards Synkivka, Vilshana and Petropavlivka. On Saturday (12 August), a Ukrainian source reported that the Russians approached Synkivka, but a counter-attack by Ukrainian troops managed to push them back.
On Monday (15 August), the Kiev-based think-tank Centre for Defence Strategies said that Russian forces had advanced near Orlians'ke and Mykolaivka and had reached the Synkivka-Petropavlivka line. The 1st Guards Tank Army and the 6th Army of the Combined Forces are expected to be the main assault forces there.
Kupiansk prepares for defence. The commander of the Ukrainian ground forces, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskiy, has reportedly spent the last few days with units preparing for the defence of the city. Meanwhile, Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesman for the Eastern Group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, confirmed the deterioration of the overall situation in the direction of Lyman-Kupiansk and said that Ukraine had moved reserves to the area. Recall that earlier Kyiv officials had warned that Moscow had amassed 100,000 men and hundreds of pieces of equipment in that direction.
Luhansk Oblast Direction
Artem Lysohor, head of the military administration of the Luhansk region, confirmed that the Russians had become very active in the Luhansk sector, but that Ukrainian troops had so far held the line. The Russians were carrying out 20 air strikes a day between Stelmachivka and Bilohorivka. Lysohor added that the pace of Russian attacks had slowed somewhat on 14-15 August due to heavy losses. The Russians are expected to maintain a relatively high pace of attacks, with pauses for troop rotation and resupply.
The fact is that the Russians captured Novoselivske and tried to attack towards Myasozharivka and Andriivka, but these attempts brought no change to the front. The source said that the main objective was to push the Ukrainian forces behind the Zerebets River, about two kilometres from the current Ukrainian positions. To this end, the Russians also launched attacks in the direction of Stelmachivka, but these were unsuccessful.
Kremlin forces also retained the initiative near Karmazynivka and continued to attack Nadiya. In contrast, there were no changes near Makiivka, Ploshchanka and Chervonopopivka, as well as Terny, Torske, Yampolivka and Nevske.
Fighting continues in the Serebryansky Forest, but there is no news of any change. Nearby - The Russians have resumed attacks on Bilohorivka. On 12 August, a Ukrainian source reported losses of men and equipment near the settlement. The loss of Bilohorivka would affect Ukrainian defences south of the Serebryansky Forest.
Donetsk Oblast Direction
There has been no significant change in the Donetsk region in recent weeks, but there is conflicting information about the Spirne area, with both sides reporting gains.
There was no change near Vesele, where the Russians had launched ground attacks earlier in the week. The situation at Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka and Ivano-Darivka also remained unchanged. Positional fighting continued near Berchivka and Orichovo-Vasilivka, but brought no change to the front line.
Bakhmut remains the centre of gravity in the region. General Syrskyi described the current situation in the Bakhmut axis as "difficult, but under control". He added that the Russians were counter-attacking, planting mines and using artillery and fighter planes intensively. Despite this, the general said, the Ukrainians are pushing. Yet, it should be noted that there have been no confirmed changes to the front line in this axis for weeks now.
On Wednesday (16 August), a Russian source claimed that the Ukrainians had deployed two HIMARS battalions towards Bakhmut. This suggests that the Ukrainians are trying to undermine Russian logistical support and artillery capabilities in this sector to facilitate the advance.
The battle for Klishchiivka continues. Russian counter-attacks to retake positions remain ineffective, as do Ukrainian attempts to take the village completely. The Russians have reportedly used T-90 tanks and continued to bring significant reserves (including air power) into the area to hold it at all costs. The same source also reported that the Ukrainians were actively using cluster munitions near Andriivka, but the advance there was also slowed by the deployment of Russian reserves.
Moving on - neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources have reported changes near Keramik, Stepove, Krasnohorivka, and further afield Pervomaikse, Tonenke, Severne, as well as Pobieda, Novomykhailivka and Vuhledar.
Southern Ukraine Direction
Velyka Novosilka Axis
The main event on this axis lately was the liberation of Urozhayne, which was confirmed on Wednesday (15 August) but most likely took place earlier. The village was taken by elements of the 1st Armoured Brigade and the 31st Mechanised Brigade, while the 128th Territorial Defence Brigade reinforced Staryomayorske.
The Ukrainians also extended their attacks from Staromayorske towards Zavitne Bazhannia (15 August), but this attempt failed.
After the loss of Urozhayne, the Russians quickly counter-attacked, but the Ukrainians quickly reinforced their positions and all attacks were repulsed. The Russian air force hit Urozhayne, Velyka Novosilika, Makarivka and Staromayorske. Artillery hit Urozhayne, Neskuchne and Rivnopil.
Realistically, however, the capture of Urozhayne is a significant step, but not a breakthrough. Progress is slow and undoubtedly very costly. Before Urozhayne, on 27 July, the Ukrainians recaptured the neighbouring village of Staromayorske. The battle for Urozhayne lasted more than two weeks, during which the Ukrainians captured about five square kilometres and deployed elements of three Marine infantry brigades and a tank brigade that had been diverted from the operational reserve.
Orichiv Axis
On 11-12 August, elements of the Ukrainian 46th Airborne Brigade entered the village of Robotyne for the first time. To prevent further Ukrainian attacks, the Russians deployed the mobilised 1441 Motorised Rifle Regiment close to the front line.
In the days that followed, the Ukrainians pressed on, with both sides reporting mutual losses. The Russians reported the destruction of a Marder vehicle and a Leopard tank. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, are certain to have shot down a Russian Ka-52 helicopter.
There are unconfirmed reports that the Russians are reinforcing Tokmak, specifically the settlement of Chystopillia.
Kherson & Crimea Direction
According to Russian sources, the Ukrainians were pushed out of the Kozachi Laheri area earlier this week, but maintained their positions in Dachi near the Antonovsky Bridge. However, it will take time to confirm this claim.
In addition, heavy fighting continued near the Antonovsky Bridge, where a Specnaz unit was to be deployed. The success of these operations is still unknown.
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In summary, both sides are focused on conducting ground operations in other parts of the front line. The Ukrainian centre of gravity is in the south, while the Russian centre of gravity is in the north. Progress on both sides remains very gradual. As we mentioned in the last section, the multi-layered coordination of major operations and, unfortunately, the continuing manifestations of Soviet-style battle planning remain a problem.
Kyiv, indirectly, responds to these accusations in the pages of The Economist, where an anonymous source from the Ukrainian General Staff admits that of the hundreds of Leopard tanks promised, Ukraine has so far received 60. This is "upsetting and demotivating", Serhiy Leshchenko, a spokesman for President Zelensky's office, tells the British daily.
„This isn’t a horse you can whip to go faster. Every metre forward has its price in blood. We simply don’t have the resources to do the frontal attacks that the West is imploring us to do.” Kyiv admits that a shift in strategy from costly and bloody attempts to break the front line to the methodical degradation of Russian capabilities is today's new reality.
„We no longer plan operations that presuppose large losses. The emphasis is now on degrading the enemy: artillery, drones, electronic warfare and so on”.
The problem is the lack of tanks, demining equipment, while the 'elephant in the room' remains aviation. On 20 August we heard important statements about preparations for the transfer of 61 F-16s from the Netherlands and Denmark to Ukraine. However, the earliest we will see the first of these in Ukrainian skies will be next year. The bottleneck remains qualified pilots and their training.
In a recent interview with the Washington Post, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said:
“I had said a couple of months ago that this offensive was going to be long, it’s gonna be bloody, it’s going to be slow. And that’s exactly what it is: long, bloody and slow, and it's a very, very difficult fight.” and continues “For Ukraine, this is an existential fight. It’s a fight for survival. But for the rest of Europe and for the rest of the world, really, for the United States, it’s about those rules, to make sure those rules stay in place.”
The Russian Federation in this shape, and more specifically the Kremlin, is also waging an existential war for its survival. These factors lead to a situation in which we are seeing a two-sided war of attrition. With the difference in the potentials of defender and aggressor, it is the West - and looking at capabilities - the Americans who hold the keys to the further fate of this war. The war in Afghanistan has cost the US budget more than $2 trillion, nearly 27 times what Washington has spent in 1.5 years to help Ukraine. If the US continues to invest long-term in fully tipping the scales in favour of Ukraine, to a degree similar to Afghanistan, and as Milley says - maintaining rules that are in the American interest - the chances of a Ukrainian triumph, however defined, will remain significant. Otherwise, they will be low. This is hardly news, but at times of difficulty - like the present - they need reminding.
