- Konrad Muzyka
Ukraine is struggling despite the negative trend.
The capture of Avdiivka documented the months-long advantage of Russian forces on the front. Kyiv is trying to make up for the loss by building fortifications and debating the difficult issue of mobilisation, which will soon be voted on. As Russian soldiers advance, the Ukrainians are biting back with attacks on Russian critical infrastructure - including refineries.
Kharkiv Oblast Direction
The Russians are continuously launching artillery attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and residential areas in the Kharkiv region with varying degrees of intensity. Still, Kharkiv remains a relatively calm operational direction.
According to Oleg Synehubov, head of the Kharkiv regional administration, the Russians continued to shell civilian buildings in many cities, among them are: Dvorichna, Berestove, Vovchansk, Topoli, Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Kupyansk.
Both sides are conducting cross-border infiltration operations. On March 12, the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Siberian Battalion fighting against the Kremlin regime announced that they had entered the Kursk and Belgorod oblasts of Russia. The main attack was to take place in the direction of the village of Tiotkino with the participation of the Freedom of Russia Legion. As of this writing, the final results of this operation are unknown, but no significant tactical, let alone strategic, results are expected.
Luhansk Oblast Direction
The Russians remain the dominant force in the direction of Luhansk. The main capture in this direction is Krokhmalne, which was taken by Kremlin forces in late January. In the following weeks, the Russians also seized the settlements of Tabaivka and Rusanivka. The Ukrainians have recently retaken some territory in the area and attempted to regain control of a section of the P-07 road.
Kyiv forces continue to repel Russian attacks in the Synkivka area. These are areas of heavy clashes.
The Russians' goal remains to reach the Oskil River. Depending on the location, the Russians are still quite far from the river. The front is about 8 kilometres from Kupyansk and 19 kilometres, or 12 miles, from Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi to the south; the Oskil River flows through both towns.
On March 5, Oleh Synehubov estimated that the Russians have more than 100,000 troops in the Lyman-Kupyansk area (40% of which are assault troops), adding that this number has not changed for months. Synehubov added that Ukrainian forces continue to build fortifications near the Belgorod region in the direction of Sumy, Vovchansk and Lyman-Kupiansk.
On the other hand, Lieutenant-General Oleksandr Pavliuk, commander of the Ukrainian Land Forces, said that Ukraine was stabilising the line of contact and would begin preparations for counteroffensive operations to seize the initiative.
Pavliuk described the situation on the battlefield as complicated but under control. He noted that judging by the estimated number of dead and captured, the Russians are throwing newly mobilised soldiers without any training onto the front line.
Further south, the Russians' goal remains to reach the Zerebets River, for which the aggressors are pushing toward Yampolivka and Terny. So far without success. According to the Ukrainians, the attacks are "indiscriminate", but they are repulsed.
In other words, the Russian thrust in the Terny - Yampolivka - Dibrova - Bilyhorivka section remains strong, but has been repulsed.
There is no change in the area of Makyivka, Ploshchka and Chervonopopivka. Similarly in the Kreminna area. Position fighting continues in the Serebriansky forest.
Donetsk Oblast Direction
Since our last visual report, the biggest change in this direction is, of course, the seizure of Avdiivka.
The city was taken after four months of fighting. Avdiivka had been on the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian war since 2015. It was difficult for the Russians to take the city, as Kyiv had heavily fortified it between 2015 and 2021. However, once the fortifications were breached, the Russians began to gain momentum. No comparable defences have been built to the west of the city, which could accelerate Russian gains.
Elements of the 3rd Assault Brigade were deployed in the Avdiivka area to cover the retreat. There they launched several counterattacks, giving the retreating Ukrainian units some time and space to withdraw. However, some Ukrainian soldiers were captured. A Ukrainian soldier from the 110th Mechanized Brigade who managed to withdraw described his experience.
First, he explained that his unit had been on the front line for 22 months (without rotation). The Russians attacked from all sides, and the Ukrainian logistics did not work. He also emphasised the lack of personnel on his side, and the Ukrainian fortifications (west of Avdiivka) were not prepared. His unit's personnel could only move at night, but Russian drones with night vision capabilities proved very problematic.
This was the largest Russian tactical triumph since the capture of Bakhmut in May 2023; gains in other parts of the front were marginal, but overall Russia probably still has the capacity for large-scale offensive operations.
In the following weeks, the Russians continued their attacks on the Bakhmut- Avdiivka- Novomykhailivka axis.
Russian troops exerted heavy pressure on Ivanivske in order to break through to Chasiv Yar. In recent weeks, they have managed to gain some ground. Currently, most of Ivanivske is under Russian control.
In Bogdanivka, meanwhile, the Ukrainians have managed to push Russian troops back a bit. The Russians also remain active near Klishchivka.
On March 5, the Russians documented the loss of the Ukrainians' first HIMARS launcher since receiving it in June 2022.
The Russians have also continued to build up forces in Orlivka and Tonenke in order to increase the pressure and fully capture these villages. Both settlements are mostly under Russian control, but not completely.
Moving south. On the Marinka axis, the Russians are advancing toward Heorhiivka, and in recent weeks they have also taken Pobeda, having also advanced around Novomykhalivka.
Another fact is the pressure east of Vuhledar, near Mykilske, where the Russians have managed to gain some ground.
Southern Ukraine Direction
Although fighting has been going on here for months, the southern front remains basically frozen. As is the case along the entire front, the Russians remain on the offensive, where they are trying to advance on Robotyne and Verbove, but this has not translated into real gains.
Fighting is taking place around settlements such as Robotyne, Verbove, Zolota Nyva, Novodonetske, and Staromairoske.
The Russians have likely brought in detachments of prisoners - Storm Z, but this time it is the aggressors who struggle with Ukrainian minefields. To stabilise the situation, the Ukrainians brought in operational reserves.
Kherson-Crimea Directio
The main news in the Kherson region is that the Ukrainians are managing to hold the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper, although it is increasingly under threat. Positional fighting continues in the Krynki area.
The Russians claim to be continuing to clear out Ukrainian groups near the Antonovski Bridge at Dachi.
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There's no denying that Russia is the offensive party along almost the entire 1,000-kilometer front. The capture of Avdiivka is the most significant success in months, albeit at the cost of heavy losses in men and equipment.
The Ukrainians, despite a growing hunger for ammunition, are trying to hold off the Russians. There is a chance that this will be at least partially satisfied, following the recent awakening of European countries - as we discussed recently.
But that's “tomorrow”; today is difficult. The campaign to prepare fortifications, announced by Volodymyr Zelensky last November, continues. Recently, Ukraine's Prime Minister Danys Shmyhal announced that the government in Kyiv has allocated $800 million for this purpose - a huge amount given the state of the Ukrainian budget.
Konrad Muzyka, with whose participation we are doing this series and who was recently near the front lines, criticises Kyiv's delay in this aspect. “This sort of work should've started six months ago The Ukrainians might find themselves in a situation where the Russians will start attacking fortifications where they haven't been finished at all….They're far behind schedule in building". Then he adds:
“It's quite bad, actually. The Ukrainians are absolutely in no position to significantly degrade Russian forward momentum. The Russians will slowly but steadily capture new villages and settlements. It definitely will not be blitzkrieg. But I think it's fair to say that…currently the Ukrainians are at the weakest, probably since mid-2022."
The question of mobilisation remains open. The Russians, in addition to their artillery superiority, are achieving a natural advantage in human numbers despite suffering heavy losses. Ukraine’s dilemma is clear - we risk losing the flower of the nation, which we want to rebuild the country after the war. But if the war is lost, there will be no country to rebuild.
In an article for the Financial Times, Isobel Koshiw notes that the new mobilisation law will be voted on March 31. As a result, this year's mobilisation wave would involve 500,000 people. 330,000 of them would be sent to the front lines.
Kyiv is trying to survive the difficult period by hitting back Russia’s air and naval capabilities. What’s more recently, the Ukrainians launched a massive long-range drone attack on oil refineries in Russia's interior.
In the past few days alone, refineries in Ryazan, Rosneft's largest refinery, and Kstovo, both in the Nizhny Novgorod region, have been successfully attacked. In addition, drones reached the Pervyy Zavod refinery in the Kaluga oblast, the Norsi refinery in Kirishia in the Leningrad region, and Novoshakhtinsk in the Rostov oblast. Due to the coincidence of dates, some have suggested that Lukoil’s vice president, 54-year-old Vitaly Robertus, may have been killed in the attack on the Lukoil-owned Norsi refinery. But authorities say the cause was more mundane - suicide.
Indeed, this is an extremely difficult time for Ukraine and one that requires tough decisions. Not everything is in Kyiv's hands, as the Ukrainian authorities are forced to watch the Euro-American political theatre unfold around sending aid to Ukraine. In our last material, we showed that this is not a lost cause, and there is some sobering up in European capitals, with France trying to lead the way in toughening its stance. But even if the aid is indeed to be passed, it will certainly not be a sudden process. In the meantime, Ukraine needs to stop the invaders here and now.
