- Hubert Walas
The frontline of the great Ukrainian-Russian war in recent days has been focused primarily in two directions. The first is the Lysychansk-Severodonetsk cauldron, where the situation for the defenders is extremely difficult. The situation in the south looks better for Kyiv, where the Ukrainians are in the midst of an offensive campaign in the direction of Kherson. Pro-Ukrainian sources claim that the Ukrainian Army is only 10km from the city. Kyiv is also making incremental gains near Izyum, while Kremlin forces are, once again, launching attacks near Kharkiv. Although it is becoming increasingly difficult to accurately depict the tactical changes on the battlefield, as both sides engage in information warfare so as to mask the true extent of their gains and losses, let's try to do so anyway. We’ll look at how the tactical and operational situation looks on a map.
The Kharkiv Front:
After a successful Ukrainian campaign in pushing the invaders back to the border, Russian attacks have restarted. In its daily reports, the Ukrainian General Staff notes that the Russians are regrouping and increasing their ability to conduct offensive operations against Ukrainian positions in the area. Recently, the Russians have taken Izbytske and Varvarovka. They have also mined the area around the villages of Bairak and Shestakove. The Russians are constantly carrying out attacks on civilian and military infrastructure, but the reports coming in are very vague. It seems that the defenders are able to repel these attacks, but if they are not reinforced, the Ukrainian defensive lines may soon collapse. Especially if more fresh Russian units arrive at the front as is reportedly happening. At the moment, the initiative on the Kharkiv front is on Russia's side.
----
Donbas:
The fighting in the Donbas region can be divided into two battlefields. The first stretches from Izyum down to Severodonetsk and continues to Popasna, where the Russians have the initiative and are conducting daily attacks in select directions. The second area, south of Popasna and down to Donetsk also isn’t free of military operations, but their intensity here is limited. Most forces are focused on capturing Severodonetsk and opening a road to Sloviansk.
The Izyum Front:
With the gravitational center now falling on the Sloviansk-Severodonetsk line, the Ukrainians have decided to go on the offensive at Izyum and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are approaching the town. Unofficially, the Ukrainians are said to be just 10km west of Izyum, in an adjacent wooded area. The Ukrainians have rightly entered Spivakivka and Prydonetske. The Ukrainian advances on the town are primarily aimed at relieving pressure on forces defending the approach near Sloviansk as Moscow needs to redeploy some forces from there to be able to hold Izyum.
The Russians, on the other hand, appear to have taken Bohorodychne, and the battle for Dolyna and Krasnopillia continues. Although the Ukrainian General Staff maintains that Russian attacks on these three towns have been repulsed and that the attackers have made no gains. It is possible that after completely capturing Bohorodychne, Dolnya, and Krasnopilia, the Ukrainian defenses in the area may collapse if the Russians maintain the pace of ground and artillery attacks. Then, the road to Sloviansk will open up for them. Since the last report, the Russians have also taken Lyman. Therefore, they are regrouping in parallel and preparing to attack from Lyman towards Raihorodok and from Yampil towards Siversk. The situation between Bohorodychne and Siversk is very worrying and the trend for Kyiv so far is negative.
The Severodonetsk Front:
In recent weeks, Russian activity from Izyum to Severodonetsk has increased significantly, and the situation from the Ukrainian point of view is worrying. The Russians now control the entire left bank of the Siverskyi Donets, except for the further contested city of Severodonetsk. This city plays a key role for Moscow. Control over it is shared, but the defenders' positions are difficult. They are located primarily in the industrial part around the Azot factory. There are said to be 570 civilians, including 38 children, on site. The Kremlin refuses to evacuate them. Overall, Muscovite forces control about 70-80% of the city. On Sunday, June 12th, the international airport in Severodonetsk was seized. According to Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Lugansk region, the last bridge linking Severodonetsk and Lysychansk was destroyed in recent days. If true, the Ukrainian defenders will either have to swim across the river to reach safety or share the fate of the Mariupol defenders. For the Russian offensive, however, the loss of the bridge would probably not pose much of an obstacle. The Russians have a fully functional river crossing southeast of Lysychansk near the villages of Orikhove-Donetske.
In the Bakhmut area, the Russians continue artillery attacks on Novoluhanske, Vidrodzhennia, and the aforementioned Bakhmut. The aim is to occupy road T0513 in order to disrupt communications between Bakhmut and Horlivka. Another road that the Russians want to disrupt is T1302 between Bakhmut and Lysychansk. Pro-Ukrainian sources speak of repelling the aggressor's advance at Berestove, while pro-Russian sources speak of seizing the eastern part of the village.
The Donetsk Front:
In contrast, the Donetsk direction continues to be a low priority. For another week in a row, the aggressors have not made any significant progress in this area. The Russians are advancing towards Marinka and Avdiivka, while the objective of capturing Niu-York has still not been realized.
To sum up, according to the advisor to the President of Ukraine Aleksey Arestovych, Russian targets in the broader Donbas region are as follows:
- Crossing the Siverskyi Donets river in many places and conquering Siversk
- Advance on Slovyansk
- Cut off the Bakhmut-Lysychansk road
- Surround Lysychansk-Sievierodonetsk
The Zaporozhye Front:
Last week, we received information from pro-Ukrainian sources that Kyiv was conducting a counter-offensive on the Orikhiv-Huliaipole line. The aim was to reach Melitopol and break the Russian land bridge between Russia and Crimea. However, nothing of the sort took place. The situation in the Zaporizhia region is tense, but stable. Both sides seem to be accepting the current layout as it allows them to concentrate their efforts elsewhere.
The Kherson Front:
In contrast to the wider Donbas region, the situation near Kherson is changing in Kyiv's favor. The Ukrainian counter-offensive north of this key junction is slowly advancing. The Ukrainians are some 10km from the city's suburbs and 18km from its center. The counter-offensive is along the Tavriiske-Soldarske-Bladodoatne line. So far, the Russians have not been able to mount a significant counter-offensive to stop the Ukrainians. Moscow is concentrating on transferring more artillery to this front, but there is no news on the transfer of additional personnel, which heralds its own problems. To slow down the Ukrainians, Russian forces have probably mined the banks of the Inhulets River between Davydiv Brid and Velyke Artakove, and brought in additional T-62 tanks. Nevertheless, the Russian presence in the Kherson region appears insufficient to provide an adequate level of defense.
If Ukrainian forces reach Kherson, it remains to be seen how they will attempt to retake the city. Kherson was the first major city to fall in this war and its recapture will undoubtedly be a matter of prestige. On the other hand, to protect the lives of Ukrainian civilians, artillery bombardment will probably not be an option.
The following two scenarios also need to be considered in the future. The Antonov bridge was mined a few weeks ago, so the retreating Russians may destroy it to prevent further Ukrainian ground attacks towards Crimea. A more likely scenario, however, is that the Ukrainians will destroy the bridge using artillery to prevent the Russians from retreating and thus surround and destroy them in the Kherson area.
----
Meanwhile, Russian efforts to establish its own authority in the occupied territories continue. In the Ukrainian town of Balakliya, which has been under Russian occupation since March, Moscow has appointed a Russian citizen, Yuri Shevchenko, as 'head of the military-civil administration.' A number of local citizens were reportedly offered the post, but none of them agreed to the offer. The administration building is protected 24 hours a day for fear that the dignitary might be assassinated. The situation in Balakliya highlights the limits of Russian 'soft power’ in the captured territories. Support for the local authorities established by Moscow is negligible. And in the long term, Russia will resort to force to impose its power and dominant position in Ukraine.
Constantly, like a boomerang, the topic of western artillery returns. Let's see on the map what the range of Western 155mm caliber systems, which are already fighting in Ukraine, looks like. In the towed howitzers category, firstly we have the Italian FH70 howitzers, which have a range of 24 to 30 kilometers. The number of pieces donated by Italy and Estonia is unknown. M777 howitzers constitute the biggest chunk of western artillery that Ukraine operates, more than 130, which when using Excalibur GPS-guided missiles have a range of up to 40 kilometers. Self-propelled howitzers are an even more valuable military resource. 22 M109 tracked howitzers were handed over to Ukraine by Norway, and a further 20 are to be acquired by London after it bought them from a private Belgian company. The M109, like the M777, fires at a range of up to 40 kilometers. A system newer than the M109, the Polish AHS Krab, also has this range. Kyiv received 18 Krab units from Warsaw and has placed an order for another 60 or so. Rostyslav Smirnov, an adviser in the Ukrainian Interior Ministry, admitted that the Krabs are fighting near Severodonetsk and that "the Russian occupants have managed to feel their presence." French Ceasar howitzers can attack targets 2 kilometers further away than the Krabs and M109s, that is at a distance of 42 kilometers. Paris has delivered 18 and President Macron, after a recent visit to Kyiv, announced the delivery of a further 6. A drastic increase in range is visible at the rocket artillery level. The M142 HIMARS announced by the United States, currently have a range of up to 300km, but Kyiv will receive them together with GMRLS rockets allowing attacks on targets only 70km away. So far, only 4 wheeled M142s have been announced. Although Washington says it is ready to provide more as the situation develops. The Ukrainians will have the same range using the tracked M270 system. A total of 6 M270s have been set for transfer by Germany and the UK.
The long-range of Western rocket artillery will allow the Ukrainians to attack targets far behind the front line, or deploy them safely far from areas of clashes, allowing them to operate beyond the range of the vast majority of Russian systems.
In this situation, what are Ukraine's needs? Kyiv formulates them as follows. According to Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the Ukrainian President, Ukraine needs 1000 155mm howitzers such as the M777, 300 rocket artillery systems in the form of HIMARS or the M270, in addition to 500 tanks, 2000 armored vehicles, and 1000 drones to win the war. These are huge quantities, unrealistic in the short term. It is possible that Kyiv is scaling up its needs to increase the pressure on supplies as these arrive slowly and in small quantities, so their impact on the battlefield is limited. A similar psychological purpose may be served by overestimating its own battlefield losses. Recently, the Ukrainians reported that around 300 Ukrainian soldiers die every day on the battlefield which would suggest a total figure of 1000 wounded and killed. If true, these are frighteningly high figures and their announcement probably has two purposes. First, to force the West to more quickly deliver arms and ammunition to Ukraine and second, to create a perception in Moscow that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are about to lose their operational capability, despite the fact that the opposite is true. We will find out what the real situation is in the coming weeks.
One thing is certain, Ukraine will not be able to win this war without significant and steady supplies from its Western partners. The long-term perspective is on the Ukrainian side, but only if this happens.
