- Hubert Walas
Five hundred eighty days of war are behind us. Such a long duration in a defensive war leaves a strong mark on the Ukrainians. Although the situation on the frontline is evolving, as is the international situation, Kyiv is slowly pushing its offensive forward, resulting in the liberation of Robotyne, Andriivka or Klishchiivka. Will Verbove be recaptured next?
Kharkiv Oblast Direction
The Russians are continuing their attacks on the Kupiansk axis. There have also been regular artillery and rocket attacks on civilian infrastructure. Among other places, the Russians have attacked Hlyboke, Petropavlivka, Kupyansk, Vovchansk and Kharkiv. The regional capital has recently experienced regular rocket attacks.
Nevertheless, overall, the situation in the Kharkiv region remained unchanged over the past month.
Luhansk Oblast Direction
The commander of the Ukrainian ground forces, Lieutenant-General Oleksandr Syrskiy, said on 18 September that the overall situation in the eastern sector remained difficult.
The Russians regularly renew attacks near Dvorichna, Petropavlivka, Bilohorivka, but without significant results. Artillery exchanges continue around Synkivka. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are reported to have made some gains in the Svatove axis.
According to a Ukrainian source, Ukrainian forces have regained control of Novoselivske, which was captured by the Russians several weeks ago. Russian units tried to attack towards Torske, but without success. Another Russian claimed that Russian air strikes had destroyed the river crossings at Novoselivske and Makiivka. Ukrainian sources have not confirmed this information. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported any developments in the Ploshchanka and Chervonopivka areas. No changes were also reported near Terny and Yampolivka.
Roman Vlasenko, the Ukrainian head of the Severodonetsk city administration, said that Russian troops were trying to regroup after several defeats. He claimed that this regrouping included the deployment of additional reserves from the Russian Federation.
Overall, while both sides remain active in the Luhansk region, the past month has not brought any significant changes in this direction.
Donetsk Oblast Direction
The same cannot be said about the outcome of the fighting in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainians have indeed made progress in the region over the past month.
The Kyiv forces propelled on towards Klishchiivka and Andriivka. They gradually pushed out the Russians and consolidated their positions. The Russians attempted a counter-attack and committed their reserves.
Nevertheless, Klishchiivka was finally liberated on 15 September, immediately followed by Andriivka. From a topographical point of view, the next important step for the Ukrainians would have been the liberation of Kurdyumivka. This would have given the advancing Ukrainian forces more options, giving them access to the hills north of Horlivka and better positions towards the T-0513 road between Horlivka and Bachmut.
The Russians are constantly counterattacking in both the Klishchiivka and Andriivka areas, but with no confirmed gains.
In addition, on 26 September, Captain Ilya Yevlash, spokesman for the Ukrainian Armed Forces Eastern Group, reported that Ukrainian forces were advancing near Ivanivske, Odarivka or Zaitseve.
There were no changes near Spirne, Verchnokamyanske, Vyimka and Ivano Darivka, where neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported significant developments.
The situation in Bakhmut remains unchanged. Russian sources again reported that Ukrainian units attempted to operate in the western part of the city, but these actions did not affect the battle line.
According to Hanna Malyar, now a former deputy defence minister, Ukraine has liberated 51 square kilometres in the Bachmut sector since the start of the counter-offensive.
Further south, there was no change near Bila Hora and in the western parts of Novokalynove, Keramik, Stepove, Krasnohorivka, Berdychi, Vesele and Kamyanka.
According to a Russian source, Russian units continued offensive operations in Mariinka, but without success.
‘Southern Ukraine’ Direction
The Ukrainians have continued their attacks on all axes to the south. The most significant developments are taking place on the Orichiv axis, where the Ukrainians are already operating behind the first Russian line of defence and are trying to break through towards Tokmak. But let's start with the Velyka-Novosilka axis.
Axis Velyka Novosilka
Russian troops are actively attacking Ukrainian positions and other military installations. Positional fighting continues near Urozhaine and Staromairoske, but no developments have been reported. The Ukrainians are most likely regrouping to resume attacks. There were no confirmed developments near Pryyutne. A Ukrainian military source claimed on 21 September that the Ukrainians had improved their positions near the settlement, but this information has not been independently verified.
The Russian 'Vostok' battalion, operating in the area, claimed that Russian forces had taken advantage of the pause in Ukrainian attacks to repair Russian defences, in particular Russian minefields.
Overall, there has been very little change on the Velyka Novosilka axis over the past month.
Axis Orichiv
More has happened on the Orichiv axis. The capture of Robotyne was confirmed by the Ukrainian staff on 28 August. As a result, the Ukrainians broke through the first Russian defensive line in that direction and, in the next step, directed their efforts to widen the breach. In other words, the target became Verbove.
Over the past month, the Ukrainians have gradually pushed the Russians in this direction. On 23 September, a Russian source reported that Ukrainians had entered Verbove, but this information has not been confirmed. At present, the situation around the village remains unclear.
Generally, after three months of counter-offensive, the Ukrainians have advanced about 14km south of Orichiv and are now about 19km from Tokmak. The town is therefore within range of Ukrainian artillery systems, and its usefulness to the Russians as a logistical centre has probably diminished. Nevertheless, the Ukrainians will still encounter solid Russian defences if they follow the road straight to Tokmak.
Kherson & Crimea Direction
Although there have been no significant changes to the front line in the Kherson region over the past month, the Ukrainians have maintained their presence on the left bank of the Dnieper and continued limited air strikes against Russian positions on the south side of the river.
Describing the current situation in the area, the Ukrainian source said that Ukrainian operations were very difficult. Since August, the Russians have intensified aerial reconnaissance missions, making operations near the river a "deadly" task for the Ukrainians. On 29 August, however, a video appeared online showing the raising of the Ukrainian flag at Dachi.
But far more significant events took place on the occupied Crimean peninsula. On 13 September, Ukrainian cruise missiles attacked the Russian Black Sea Fleet base at Sevastopol. Available footage confirmed significant damage to the large Ropucha-class landing ship Minsk.
Even more painful for the Russians was the loss of the Kilo-class submarine Rostov on Don, one of the newest in the Russian arsenal, which also fell victim to the attack.
According to Russian sources, 10 Storm Shadow cruise missiles and three unmanned sea vehicles were used in the attack. The Russians claimed to have intercepted seven missiles and destroyed three drones.
Interestingly, the day before the attack, the Ukrainians conducted an operation in the Black Sea that resulted in them taking control of several offshore gas and oil drilling platforms near Crimea. These platforms had been under Russian control since 2015, following Moscow's annexation of the peninsula.
But that was not the end of Ukrainian attacks on high-value targets in Crimea. On Friday 22 September, the Ukrainians launched an attack on the Black Sea Fleet command centre in Sevastopol. Although it is not clear how many missiles were fired, at least two hit the building. Two days earlier, the Black Sea Fleet command centre near Belbek airport was also attacked. It is therefore clear that the Ukrainians are trying to degrade the command and control of the fleet and eliminate its command structure. Given that Russia has been at war with Ukraine for more than a year and that Kyiv has recently stepped up its attacks on high-value targets in Crimea, it is unlikely that the building was used as a fleet command centre. On the other hand, given that NATO countries (mainly the US) have been providing Ukraine with targeting data and that the Russians have been slow to learn the lessons of this war, it would not be surprising if the attack did indeed result in high-value casualties.
The Ukrainian Special Forces said in a telegram that "34 officers were killed, including the commander of the Black Sea Fleet. Another 105 personnel were wounded. The headquarters building is not suitable for reconstruction". However, the Russians later released footage showing the commander of the Black Sea Fleet in public. Although the footage cannot be 100% verified, it is highly likely that he was not a victim of the attack.
Summary
In summary, the offensive is moving forward slowly but steadily. The Ukrainians have not made any significant breakthroughs - in the classic sense of the word - in the past month, but are concentrating on keeping up the pressure and exploiting the enemy's deficiencies where possible. Kyiv remains on the offensive on the Orichiv and Bakhmut axis.
It was at Orichiv that the Ukrainians broke through the first line of Russian fortifications. Although this event was not a turning point in the war, it did highlight the continuing and successful attempts to drive the Russians from their positions in the south of the country.
The breaking of the Russian Surovikin line east of Robotyne naturally made Verbove the next target. Ukrainian operations were therefore aimed at aligning the front line horizontally and widening the gap in which the Ukrainians found themselves. Yet overall, the Ukrainian attacks continued to be quite narrow.
Second, the Ukrainian liberation of Andriivka and Klishchiivka south of Bakhmut is the first significant result of a months-long campaign to tie down Russian forces in that direction. Ukrainian forces launched counter-attacks on the Bakhmut axis in mid-May, and the battle for Klishchiivka began in July. Since then, the Ukrainians have liberated more than 50 square kilometres in areas south of Bakhmut and are expected to continue their assault eastwards. Despite these gains, the overall operational picture around Bakhmut remains largely unchanged.
It should be noted that the continued harassment of the Russian Black Sea Fleet by Kyiv's forces is looking positive for the NATO-backed side. To date, Kyiv has used Storm Shadow and Scalp-ER cruise missiles supplied by the UK and France for such missions, as well as domestically produced Naptun cruise missiles, but all these are likely in a very limited supply.
Ukrainian operations are aimed at destroying the Black Sea Fleet's capabilities, including the ability to launch missile attacks on Ukrainian territory from the Black Sea. Similarly, attacks on the Crimean air defence network are expected to cripple Moscow's ability to protect the peninsula from rocket and ballistic missile attacks. The deployment of ATACMS could exacerbate these problems.
Speaking of which, on 22 September, US President Joe Biden announced to Volodymyr Zelensky that the US will supply ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. However, it will be in small numbers and the timing remains undetermined. We should also note the appearance of the first Abrams tanks on the Ukrainian side. Recall that Washington announced the delivery of 31 such machines.
Of concern for Ukraine is the 21 September missile attack on the Ukrainian power grid, in which 44 missiles were launched, of which 36 (81%) were intercepted. This was the first such attack since March 2023 and caused partial power cuts in the Rivne, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions. We may therefore be witnessing the start of a renewed Russian air campaign to degrade Ukraine's power supply as the colder months approach. We expect Ukrainian air defences to be better prepared to defend against such attacks in the autumn and winter as a result of the continued delivery of surface-to-air missiles.
Overall, Kyiv must keep up the pressure on the Russians and push towards Tokmak on the southern front in order not to lose the initiative and hard-won territorial gains. This is confirmed by the top political leadership in Kyiv. Volodymyr Zelenski said on Thursday, 21 September, that "we cannot stop in winter" and that Ukraine "will do everything not to stop in the difficult, bad weather days of autumn and winter".
There is no end in sight to the war, but neither is there an end in sight to the Ukrainians' determination to drive the invaders out of their country.
Source:
https://rochanconsulting.substack.com/
